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Intrinsic value of Packaging Corporation of America (PKG)

Previous Close$149.06
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$149.06

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $
Initial revenue growth rate (norm.), %
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, mln $
Production assets / Revenue, %
Working capital / Revenue, %
Interest rate on debt, %
Initial discount rate, %
Shares outstanding, mln
Adjusted equity ratio
Adjusted assets / Revenue
Cash & ST Investments
Total debt
Market cap, m$
13,943

Based on fiscal year data as of 2021-12-31 and quarterly data as of 2022-03-31.

  1. Annual
  2. Quarterly YoY
  3. Quarterly QoQ

Annual revenue growth rates, % (past and forecasted)

NOTE: The bar chart shows historic and forecasted yearly revenue growth rates. Its purpose is to help you in determining what initial revenue rate you want to base your stock valuation on. Please make sure that you are confident in the value you select - for most stocks it is by far the most important parameter in valuation.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2021(a)2022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %16.1NaN
Revenue, $7730NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $m6489NaN
Operating income, $m1241NaN
EBITDA, $m1663NaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $m1102NaN
Tax expense, $m268NaN
Net income, $m835NaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m705NaN
Total assets, $m7837NaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m7132NaN
Average production assets, $m4557NaN
Working capital, $m1848NaN
Total debt, $m2484NaN
Total liabilities, $m4230NaN
Total equity, $m3607NaN
Debt-to-equity ratio0.689NaN
Adjusted equity ratio0.407NaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m835NaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m422NaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $m1094NaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $m-597NaN
Free cash flow, $m1691NaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m1848
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
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