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Intrinsic Value of Waste Management, Inc. (WM)

Previous Close$227.10
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$227.10

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Waste Management, Inc. is the largest provider of comprehensive waste management and environmental services in North America, operating in a highly regulated and capital-intensive industry. The company generates revenue through a diversified model, including collection, transfer, recycling, and disposal services for residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers. Its vertically integrated operations allow it to control costs and maintain pricing power, while its extensive network of landfills and recycling facilities provides a competitive moat. Waste Management benefits from steady demand due to the essential nature of waste services, though it faces regulatory pressures and sustainability trends that shape its long-term strategy. The company has actively invested in renewable energy projects, such as landfill gas-to-energy, to align with environmental goals and diversify income streams. Its scale, operational efficiency, and focus on sustainability position it as a leader in an industry with high barriers to entry.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Waste Management reported $22.1 billion in revenue for FY 2024, with net income of $2.7 billion, reflecting disciplined cost management and pricing strategies. The company’s operating cash flow of $5.4 billion underscores its ability to convert revenue into cash efficiently, while capital expenditures of $3.2 billion highlight ongoing investments in fleet modernization and recycling infrastructure. These metrics demonstrate a resilient business model with strong profitability.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

With diluted EPS of $6.81, Waste Management exhibits robust earnings power, supported by stable cash flows from core operations. The company’s capital allocation prioritizes reinvestment in high-return projects, debt reduction, and shareholder returns, evidenced by its $3.00 annual dividend per share. Its ability to generate consistent earnings despite economic cycles reinforces its defensive positioning in the waste services sector.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Waste Management maintains a solid balance sheet with $414 million in cash and equivalents, though its total debt of $23.9 billion reflects the capital-intensive nature of the industry. The company’s strong operating cash flow provides ample coverage for debt servicing and reinvestment needs. Prudent leverage management ensures financial flexibility, supporting both growth initiatives and shareholder returns.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

The company has demonstrated steady growth through organic pricing increases, volume growth, and strategic acquisitions. Its dividend policy, with a $3.00 annual payout, reflects a commitment to returning capital to shareholders while maintaining room for reinvestment. Waste Management’s focus on sustainability and recycling aligns with long-term industry trends, positioning it for continued growth in a circular economy.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Waste Management trades at a premium valuation, reflecting its market leadership, predictable cash flows, and defensive characteristics. Investors likely price in expectations of sustained pricing power, efficiency gains, and incremental growth from sustainability initiatives. The stock’s performance hinges on execution in cost management and capital allocation amid evolving environmental regulations.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Waste Management’s scale, operational expertise, and sustainability initiatives provide durable competitive advantages. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on waste-to-energy opportunities and recycling demand, though regulatory risks and economic sensitivity remain considerations. Its outlook remains positive, supported by stable industry dynamics and a disciplined approach to growth and capital returns.

Sources

10-K filings, company investor relations

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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