Investor's Craft

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Investor's Craft

Intrinsic Value of AAON, Inc. (AAON)

Previous Close	$78.08
Intrinsic Value	$12.93
Upside potential	-83%

Previous Close

$78.08

Intrinsic Value

$12.93

Potential

-83%

VALUATION INPUT DATA

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	2036	2037	2038	2039	2040	2041	2042	2043	2044	2045	2046	2047	2048	2049
INCOME STATEMENT
Revenue growth rate, %	2.7	2.8	2.9	3.0	3.1	3.2	3.3	3.4	3.5	3.6	3.6	3.7	3.8	3.8	3.9	3.9	4.0	4.0	4.1	4.1	4.2	4.2	4.3	4.3	4.3
Revenue, $	1233	1268	1305	1344	1386	1431	1478	1529	1582	1638	1697	1760	1826	1896	1969	2047	2128	2214	2305	2400	2500	2606	2716	2833	2956
Variable operating expenses, $m	995	1023	1053	1085	1119	1155	1193	1234	1276	1322	1370	1420	1474	1530	1589	1652	1718	1787	1860	1937	2018	2103	2192	2286	2385
Fixed operating expenses, $m	25	27	30	32	35	38	41	44	48	52	57	62	67	72	79	85	93	100	109	118	128	139	151	164	178
Total operating expenses, $m	1020	1050	1083	1117	1154	1193	1234	1278	1324	1374	1427	1482	1541	1602	1668	1737	1811	1887	1969	2055	2146	2242	2343	2450	2563
Operating income, $m	213	217	222	227	233	238	244	251	257	264	271	278	286	293	301	310	318	327	336	345	354	364	373	383	393
EBITDA, $m	231	236	241	247	253	259	266	273	280	287	295	303	312	321	330	339	349	359	369	379	390	401	412	423	435
Interest expense (income), $m	1	-27	-27	-27	-26	-26	-26	-25	-25	-24	-24	-23	-23	-22	-21	-21	-20	-19	-18	-18	-17	-16	-15	-14	-13
Earnings before tax, $m	212	245	249	254	259	264	270	276	282	288	295	301	308	315	323	330	338	346	354	363	371	379	388	397	405
Tax expense, $m	57	66	67	69	70	71	73	74	76	78	80	81	83	85	87	89	91	93	96	98	100	102	105	107	109
Net income, $m	155	179	182	186	189	193	197	201	206	210	215	220	225	230	236	241	247	253	259	265	271	277	283	290	296
BALANCE SHEET
Cash and short-term investments, $m	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total assets, $m	1406	1445	1488	1533	1580	1631	1685	1743	1803	1867	1935	2006	2082	2161	2245	2333	2426	2524	2627	2736	2850	2970	3097	3230	3370
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m	1406	1445	1488	1533	1580	1631	1685	1743	1803	1867	1935	2006	2082	2161	2245	2333	2426	2524	2627	2736	2850	2970	3097	3230	3370
Average production assets, $m	550	565	582	600	618	638	659	682	705	730	757	785	814	845	878	913	949	988	1028	1070	1115	1162	1212	1264	1318
Working capital, $m	313	322	331	341	352	363	376	388	402	416	431	447	464	481	500	520	541	562	585	610	635	662	690	720	751
Total debt, $m	-685	-677	-669	-660	-650	-640	-629	-618	-606	-593	-579	-565	-550	-534	-517	-500	-481	-461	-441	-419	-396	-372	-347	-320	-292
Total liabilities, $m	281	289	298	307	316	326	337	349	361	373	387	401	416	432	449	467	485	505	525	547	570	594	619	646	674
Total equity, $m	1125	1156	1190	1226	1264	1305	1348	1394	1442	1494	1548	1605	1665	1729	1796	1867	1941	2019	2102	2189	2280	2376	2477	2584	2696
Debt-to-equity ratio	0.014	-0.592	-0.569	-0.545	-0.522	-0.498	-0.475	-0.451	-0.428	-0.405	-0.383	-0.361	-0.339	-0.318	-0.297	-0.277	-0.257	-0.238	-0.219	-0.201	-0.184	-0.167	-0.150	-0.134	-0.119
Adjusted equity ratio	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800
CASH FLOW
Net income, $m	155	179	182	186	189	193	197	201	206	210	215	220	225	230	236	241	247	253	259	265	271	277	283	290	296
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m	18	18	19	19	20	21	21	22	23	24	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	32	33	34	36	37	39	40	42
Funds from operations, $m	173	197	201	205	209	214	218	223	228	234	239	245	251	257	264	270	277	284	292	299	306	314	322	330	338
Change in working capital, $m	8	9	9	10	11	11	12	13	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	27	28	30	31
Cash from operations, $m	165	188	191	195	199	202	206	211	215	219	224	229	234	240	245	251	257	262	269	275	281	287	294	300	307
Maintenance CAPEX, $m	-18	-18	-19	-19	-20	-21	-21	-22	-23	-24	-24	-25	-26	-27	-28	-29	-30	-32	-33	-34	-36	-37	-39	-40	-42
New CAPEX, $m	-14	-15	-17	-18	-19	-20	-21	-22	-24	-25	-26	-28	-29	-31	-33	-35	-36	-38	-40	-42	-45	-47	-49	-52	-55
Total CAPEX, $m	-32	-34	-35	-37	-39	-41	-42	-44	-46	-49	-51	-53	-56	-58	-61	-64	-67	-70	-73	-77	-80	-84	-88	-92	-97
Free cash flow, $m	132	154	156	158	160	162	164	166	169	171	173	176	179	181	184	187	190	193	195	198	201	203	206	208	210
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m	171	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Retained Cash Flow, $m	16	-32	-34	-36	-38	-41	-43	-46	-48	-51	-54	-57	-60	-64	-67	-71	-74	-78	-83	-87	-91	-96	-101	-106	-112
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m	-316
Cash available for distribution, $m	0	123	122	122	121	121	121	120	120	120	119	119	118	118	117	116	115	114	113	111	109	107	105	102	98
Discount rate, %	4.90	5.15	5.40	5.67	5.96	6.25	6.57	6.89	7.24	7.60	7.98	8.38	8.80	9.24	9.70	10.19	10.70	11.23	11.79	12.38	13.00	13.65	14.33	15.05	15.80
PV of cash for distribution, $m	0	111	104	98	91	84	77	71	64	58	51	45	40	34	29	25	20	17	14	11	8	6	5	4	3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %	98	98	98	98	98	98	98	98	98	98	98	98	98	98	98	98	98	98	98	98	98	98	98	98	98

Investor's Craft

Investor's Craft

Intrinsic Value of AAON, Inc. (AAON)

VALUATION INPUT DATA

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

INCOME STATEMENT

BALANCE SHEET

CASH FLOW