Previous Close | $13.37 |
Intrinsic Value | $2,435.31 |
Upside potential | +18,115% |
Data is not available at this time.
Alignment Healthcare, Inc. operates as a tech-enabled Medicare Advantage provider, leveraging proprietary data analytics and care delivery models to serve senior populations. The company’s core revenue model is driven by capitated payments from government-sponsored programs, supplemented by value-based care incentives. Its platform integrates clinical care, technology, and personalized services to improve health outcomes while controlling costs. In the highly competitive Medicare Advantage sector, Alignment differentiates itself through its consumer-centric approach, predictive analytics, and partnerships with local providers. The company targets underserved markets with high growth potential, positioning itself as a disruptor in value-based senior care. Its scalable technology infrastructure and focus on preventive care aim to reduce hospitalizations, a key cost driver in managed care. Despite being a relatively smaller player compared to industry giants, Alignment’s niche focus on tech-driven care coordination provides a defensible market position.
Alignment Healthcare reported $2.7 billion in revenue for FY 2024, reflecting its growing membership base in Medicare Advantage plans. However, the company posted a net loss of $128 million, with diluted EPS of -$0.67, indicating ongoing investments in growth and technology. Operating cash flow was positive at $34.8 million, though capital expenditures of $41.4 million suggest continued infrastructure and platform investments.
The company’s earnings power remains constrained by high medical costs and administrative expenses typical of growth-stage managed care organizations. Capital efficiency is a focus, with investments in data analytics and care coordination tools aimed at long-term margin improvement. The negative EPS highlights the challenge of balancing growth with profitability in a competitive reimbursement environment.
Alignment Healthcare maintains a solid liquidity position with $432.9 million in cash and equivalents, providing runway for operational needs. Total debt stands at $329.3 million, resulting in a manageable leverage profile. The balance sheet reflects a growth-oriented strategy, with resources allocated to scaling its technology and care delivery capabilities.
The company is focused on membership growth and geographic expansion within the Medicare Advantage market. No dividends are currently paid, as retained earnings are reinvested into technology, clinical programs, and market penetration. Growth trends are supported by demographic tailwinds, but profitability will depend on achieving scale and operational leverage.
Market expectations appear to balance Alignment’s growth potential against its current lack of profitability. Investors likely price in the company’s ability to scale its tech-enabled model and improve margins over time, though execution risks remain given reimbursement pressures and competition in the Medicare Advantage space.
Alignment’s strategic advantages lie in its integrated care model, data-driven approach, and focus on senior healthcare—a high-growth demographic. The outlook hinges on successful execution of its value-based care strategy, cost management, and ability to differentiate in a crowded market. Regulatory changes in Medicare reimbursement and competitive dynamics will be key monitorables.
Company filings, CIK 0001832466
show cash flow forecast
Fiscal year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 | 2049 | |
INCOME STATEMENT | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Revenue growth rate, % | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Revenue, $ | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Variable operating expenses, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Fixed operating expenses, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Total operating expenses, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Operating income, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
EBITDA, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Interest expense (income), $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Earnings before tax, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tax expense, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net income, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
BALANCE SHEET | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Cash and short-term investments, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Total assets, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Average production assets, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Working capital, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Total debt, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Total liabilities, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Total equity, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Debt-to-equity ratio | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Adjusted equity ratio | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
CASH FLOW | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net income, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Funds from operations, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Change in working capital, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Cash from operations, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Maintenance CAPEX, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
New CAPEX, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Total CAPEX, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Free cash flow, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Retained Cash Flow, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Cash available for distribution, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Discount rate, % | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
PV of cash for distribution, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Current shareholders' claim on cash, % | NaN |