Fiscal year | | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 | 2049 |
INCOME STATEMENT |
Revenue growth rate, % | | 12.6 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 11.2 | 10.9 | 10.6 | 10.3 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 7.2 |
Revenue, $ | | 13214 | 14828 | 16587 | 18497 | 20567 | 22805 | 25219 | 27818 | 30612 | 33609 | 36818 | 40251 | 43916 | 47826 | 51990 | 56420 | 61128 | 66127 | 71429 | 77049 | 83001 | 89299 | 95960 | 102999 | 110435 |
Variable operating expenses, $m | | 10293 | 11551 | 12921 | 14409 | 16022 | 17765 | 19646 | 21670 | 23847 | 26181 | 28682 | 31355 | 34211 | 37256 | 40500 | 43951 | 47619 | 51513 | 55643 | 60021 | 64658 | 69564 | 74753 | 80237 | 86029 |
Fixed operating expenses, $m | | 2190 | 2377 | 2579 | 2798 | 3036 | 3294 | 3574 | 3877 | 4207 | 4565 | 4953 | 5373 | 5830 | 6326 | 6864 | 7447 | 8080 | 8767 | 9512 | 10320 | 11198 | 12149 | 13182 | 14303 | 15518 |
Total operating expenses, $m | | 12483 | 13928 | 15500 | 17207 | 19058 | 21059 | 23220 | 25547 | 28054 | 30746 | 33635 | 36728 | 40041 | 43582 | 47364 | 51398 | 55699 | 60280 | 65155 | 70341 | 75856 | 81713 | 87935 | 94540 | 101547 |
Operating income, $m | | 730 | 900 | 1087 | 1290 | 1510 | 1746 | 2000 | 2270 | 2558 | 2863 | 3184 | 3522 | 3875 | 4244 | 4626 | 5022 | 5429 | 5847 | 6274 | 6708 | 7146 | 7586 | 8025 | 8460 | 8888 |
EBITDA, $m | | 1313 | 1557 | 1824 | 2115 | 2429 | 2769 | 3133 | 3524 | 3941 | 4385 | 4855 | 5352 | 5876 | 6427 | 7004 | 7606 | 8234 | 8886 | 9561 | 10258 | 10976 | 11712 | 12464 | 13231 | 14008 |
Interest expense (income), $m | | 256 | 633 | 697 | 767 | 842 | 924 | 1013 | 1109 | 1211 | 1322 | 1441 | 1568 | 1704 | 1849 | 2004 | 2169 | 2344 | 2531 | 2728 | 2938 | 3161 | 3397 | 3646 | 3910 | 4189 |
Earnings before tax, $m | | 474 | 267 | 390 | 523 | 667 | 822 | 987 | 1162 | 1347 | 1541 | 1744 | 1954 | 2171 | 2395 | 2622 | 2853 | 3085 | 3317 | 3546 | 3769 | 3985 | 4189 | 4379 | 4550 | 4699 |
Tax expense, $m | | 128 | 72 | 105 | 141 | 180 | 222 | 266 | 314 | 364 | 416 | 471 | 528 | 586 | 647 | 708 | 770 | 833 | 896 | 957 | 1018 | 1076 | 1131 | 1182 | 1229 | 1269 |
Net income, $m | | 346 | 195 | 285 | 382 | 487 | 600 | 720 | 848 | 983 | 1125 | 1273 | 1426 | 1585 | 1748 | 1914 | 2083 | 2252 | 2421 | 2588 | 2751 | 2909 | 3058 | 3197 | 3322 | 3430 |
BALANCE SHEET |
Cash and short-term investments, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total assets, $m | | 14535 | 16311 | 18245 | 20347 | 22623 | 25085 | 27741 | 30600 | 33673 | 36970 | 40500 | 44276 | 48308 | 52608 | 57188 | 62062 | 67241 | 72739 | 78572 | 84754 | 91301 | 98229 | 105556 | 113299 | 121479 |
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m | | 14535 | 16311 | 18245 | 20347 | 22623 | 25085 | 27741 | 30600 | 33673 | 36970 | 40500 | 44276 | 48308 | 52608 | 57188 | 62062 | 67241 | 72739 | 78572 | 84754 | 91301 | 98229 | 105556 | 113299 | 121479 |
Average production assets, $m | | 13729 | 15407 | 17234 | 19218 | 21369 | 23694 | 26202 | 28903 | 31806 | 34919 | 38254 | 41821 | 45629 | 49691 | 54017 | 58620 | 63512 | 68706 | 74215 | 80054 | 86238 | 92782 | 99702 | 107016 | 114742 |
Working capital, $m | | -3158 | -3544 | -3964 | -4421 | -4915 | -5450 | -6027 | -6649 | -7316 | -8032 | -8800 | -9620 | -10496 | -11430 | -12426 | -13484 | -14610 | -15804 | -17072 | -18415 | -19837 | -21342 | -22934 | -24617 | -26394 |
Total debt, $m | | 15828 | 17427 | 19168 | 21059 | 23108 | 25324 | 27714 | 30287 | 33053 | 36020 | 39197 | 42595 | 46224 | 50094 | 54217 | 58602 | 63263 | 68212 | 73462 | 79026 | 84918 | 91153 | 97747 | 104716 | 112078 |
Total liabilities, $m | | 13081 | 14680 | 16421 | 18312 | 20361 | 22577 | 24967 | 27540 | 30306 | 33273 | 36450 | 39848 | 43477 | 47347 | 51470 | 55855 | 60516 | 65465 | 70715 | 76279 | 82171 | 88406 | 95000 | 101969 | 109331 |
Total equity, $m | | 1453 | 1631 | 1825 | 2035 | 2262 | 2509 | 2774 | 3060 | 3367 | 3697 | 4050 | 4428 | 4831 | 5261 | 5719 | 6206 | 6724 | 7274 | 7857 | 8475 | 9130 | 9823 | 10556 | 11330 | 12148 |
Debt-to-equity ratio | | 4.398 | 9.704 | 9.551 | 9.421 | 9.308 | 9.212 | 9.129 | 9.057 | 8.994 | 8.941 | 8.894 | 8.853 | 8.817 | 8.787 | 8.760 | 8.736 | 8.715 | 8.697 | 8.681 | 8.668 | 8.656 | 8.645 | 8.636 | 8.627 | 8.620 |
Adjusted equity ratio | | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 |
CASH FLOW |
Net income, $m | | 346 | 195 | 285 | 382 | 487 | 600 | 720 | 848 | 983 | 1125 | 1273 | 1426 | 1585 | 1748 | 1914 | 2083 | 2252 | 2421 | 2588 | 2751 | 2909 | 3058 | 3197 | 3322 | 3430 |
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m | | 583 | 657 | 737 | 825 | 920 | 1022 | 1134 | 1254 | 1383 | 1522 | 1671 | 1830 | 2001 | 2183 | 2378 | 2585 | 2805 | 3039 | 3287 | 3551 | 3830 | 4126 | 4439 | 4770 | 5120 |
Funds from operations, $m | | 929 | 852 | 1022 | 1207 | 1407 | 1622 | 1854 | 2102 | 2366 | 2647 | 2944 | 3257 | 3586 | 3931 | 4292 | 4667 | 5057 | 5460 | 5876 | 6302 | 6739 | 7184 | 7636 | 8092 | 8551 |
Change in working capital, $m | | -353 | -386 | -420 | -457 | -495 | -535 | -577 | -621 | -668 | -716 | -767 | -820 | -876 | -934 | -995 | -1059 | -1125 | -1195 | -1267 | -1343 | -1422 | -1505 | -1592 | -1682 | -1777 |
Cash from operations, $m | | 1283 | 1238 | 1442 | 1663 | 1901 | 2157 | 2431 | 2723 | 3034 | 3363 | 3711 | 4077 | 4462 | 4866 | 5287 | 5726 | 6182 | 6655 | 7143 | 7646 | 8162 | 8689 | 9228 | 9775 | 10328 |
Maintenance CAPEX, $m | | -583 | -657 | -737 | -825 | -920 | -1022 | -1134 | -1254 | -1383 | -1522 | -1671 | -1830 | -2001 | -2183 | -2378 | -2585 | -2805 | -3039 | -3287 | -3551 | -3830 | -4126 | -4439 | -4770 | -5120 |
New CAPEX, $m | | -1536 | -1678 | -1827 | -1985 | -2151 | -2325 | -2508 | -2701 | -2902 | -3114 | -3335 | -3566 | -3809 | -4062 | -4326 | -4603 | -4892 | -5194 | -5509 | -5839 | -6184 | -6544 | -6920 | -7314 | -7726 |
Total CAPEX, $m | | -2120 | -2335 | -2564 | -2809 | -3070 | -3348 | -3642 | -3954 | -4285 | -4636 | -5006 | -5397 | -5809 | -6245 | -6704 | -7187 | -7697 | -8233 | -8797 | -9390 | -10014 | -10670 | -11360 | -12085 | -12846 |
Free cash flow, $m | | -837 | -1097 | -1122 | -1146 | -1169 | -1190 | -1211 | -1231 | -1252 | -1273 | -1295 | -1320 | -1347 | -1379 | -1417 | -1461 | -1514 | -1578 | -1654 | -1745 | -1853 | -1981 | -2132 | -2310 | -2518 |
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m | | 0 | 1274 | 1316 | 1356 | 1396 | 1436 | 1477 | 1517 | 1559 | 1602 | 1648 | 1697 | 1750 | 1809 | 1875 | 1949 | 2032 | 2128 | 2237 | 2363 | 2507 | 2673 | 2865 | 3084 | 3336 |
Retained Cash Flow, $m | | -2956 | -178 | -193 | -210 | -228 | -246 | -266 | -286 | -307 | -330 | -353 | -378 | -403 | -430 | -458 | -487 | -518 | -550 | -583 | -618 | -655 | -693 | -733 | -774 | -818 |
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m | | 5875 |
Cash available for distribution, $m | | 2082 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Discount rate, % | | 5.10 | 5.36 | 5.62 | 5.90 | 6.20 | 6.51 | 6.83 | 7.18 | 7.54 | 7.91 | 8.31 | 8.72 | 9.16 | 9.62 | 10.10 | 10.60 | 11.13 | 11.69 | 12.27 | 12.89 | 13.53 | 14.21 | 14.92 | 15.66 | 16.45 |
PV of cash for distribution, $m | | 1981 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Current shareholders' claim on cash, % | | 100 | 62 | 40 | 27 | 18 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |