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Intrinsic Value of Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK)

Previous Close$50.33
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$50.33

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of 2024-12-31.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %12.612.211.911.511.210.910.610.310.09.89.69.39.18.98.78.58.38.28.07.97.77.67.57.37.2
Revenue, $1321414828165871849720567228052521927818306123360936818402514391647826519905642061128661277142977049830018929995960102999110435
Variable operating expenses, $m10293115511292114409160221776519646216702384726181286823135534211372564050043951476195151355643600216465869564747538023786029
Fixed operating expenses, $m2190237725792798303632943574387742074565495353735830632668647447808087679512103201119812149131821430315518
Total operating expenses, $m124831392815500172071905821059232202554728054307463363536728400414358247364513985569960280651557034175856817138793594540101547
Operating income, $m73090010871290151017462000227025582863318435223875424446265022542958476274670871467586802584608888
EBITDA, $m1313155718242115242927693133352439414385485553525876642770047606823488869561102581097611712124641323114008
Interest expense (income), $m2566336977678429241013110912111322144115681704184920042169234425312728293831613397364639104189
Earnings before tax, $m474267390523667822987116213471541174419542171239526222853308533173546376939854189437945504699
Tax expense, $m12872105141180222266314364416471528586647708770833896957101810761131118212291269
Net income, $m3461952853824876007208489831125127314261585174819142083225224212588275129093058319733223430

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m14535163111824520347226232508527741306003367336970405004427648308526085718862062672417273978572847549130198229105556113299121479
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m14535163111824520347226232508527741306003367336970405004427648308526085718862062672417273978572847549130198229105556113299121479
Average production assets, $m1372915407172341921821369236942620228903318063491938254418214562949691540175862063512687067421580054862389278299702107016114742
Working capital, $m-3158-3544-3964-4421-4915-5450-6027-6649-7316-8032-8800-9620-10496-11430-12426-13484-14610-15804-17072-18415-19837-21342-22934-24617-26394
Total debt, $m1582817427191682105923108253242771430287330533602039197425954622450094542175860263263682127346279026849189115397747104716112078
Total liabilities, $m1308114680164211831220361225772496727540303063327336450398484347747347514705585560516654657071576279821718840695000101969109331
Total equity, $m1453163118252035226225092774306033673697405044284831526157196206672472747857847591309823105561133012148
Debt-to-equity ratio4.3989.7049.5519.4219.3089.2129.1299.0578.9948.9418.8948.8538.8178.7878.7608.7368.7158.6978.6818.6688.6568.6458.6368.6278.620
Adjusted equity ratio0.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.100

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m3461952853824876007208489831125127314261585174819142083225224212588275129093058319733223430
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m58365773782592010221134125413831522167118302001218323782585280530393287355138304126443947705120
Funds from operations, $m92985210221207140716221854210223662647294432573586393142924667505754605876630267397184763680928551
Change in working capital, $m-353-386-420-457-495-535-577-621-668-716-767-820-876-934-995-1059-1125-1195-1267-1343-1422-1505-1592-1682-1777
Cash from operations, $m12831238144216631901215724312723303433633711407744624866528757266182665571437646816286899228977510328
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-583-657-737-825-920-1022-1134-1254-1383-1522-1671-1830-2001-2183-2378-2585-2805-3039-3287-3551-3830-4126-4439-4770-5120
New CAPEX, $m-1536-1678-1827-1985-2151-2325-2508-2701-2902-3114-3335-3566-3809-4062-4326-4603-4892-5194-5509-5839-6184-6544-6920-7314-7726
Total CAPEX, $m-2120-2335-2564-2809-3070-3348-3642-3954-4285-4636-5006-5397-5809-6245-6704-7187-7697-8233-8797-9390-10014-10670-11360-12085-12846
Free cash flow, $m-837-1097-1122-1146-1169-1190-1211-1231-1252-1273-1295-1320-1347-1379-1417-1461-1514-1578-1654-1745-1853-1981-2132-2310-2518
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m0127413161356139614361477151715591602164816971750180918751949203221282237236325072673286530843336
Retained Cash Flow, $m-2956-178-193-210-228-246-266-286-307-330-353-378-403-430-458-487-518-550-583-618-655-693-733-774-818
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m5875
Cash available for distribution, $m2082000000000000000000000000
Discount rate, %5.105.365.625.906.206.516.837.187.547.918.318.729.169.6210.1010.6011.1311.6912.2712.8913.5314.2114.9215.6616.45
PV of cash for distribution, $m1981000000000000000000000000
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %10062402718139754322111111000000