investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic Value of The Andersons, Inc. (ANDE)

Previous Close$38.43
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$38.43

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

The Andersons, Inc. operates as a diversified agribusiness company with core operations spanning grain merchandising, ethanol production, plant nutrient distribution, and railcar leasing. The company generates revenue through a mix of commodity trading, value-added processing, and logistics services, positioning itself as a critical link in the agricultural supply chain. Its grain segment leverages extensive storage and transportation infrastructure to optimize margins, while the ethanol business benefits from integrated production capabilities. The rail segment provides stable, asset-based income, complementing the cyclicality of agricultural markets. Andersons maintains a strong regional presence in the Midwest, supported by long-standing farmer relationships and efficient distribution networks. Its diversified model mitigates sector-specific risks while capitalizing on synergies across business lines. The company competes with larger agribusiness players but differentiates through localized service, operational flexibility, and niche expertise in rail logistics.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Andersons reported $11.3 billion in revenue for FY 2023, with net income of $114 million, reflecting a 1% net margin. Diluted EPS stood at $3.32, while operating cash flow reached $331.5 million. Capital expenditures of $149.2 million indicate moderate reinvestment needs. The company's asset-intensive model requires efficient working capital management, particularly in grain inventories and receivables, to maintain profitability amid commodity price volatility.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company demonstrates moderate capital efficiency, with ROIC influenced by commodity cycles and fixed asset utilization. Ethanol margins and grain merchandising volumes drive earnings variability, while the rail segment provides steadier cash flows. Operating cash flow coverage of capex (2.2x) suggests adequate internal funding capacity. Share count stability (34 million shares outstanding) reflects disciplined capital allocation.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Andersons maintains a solid liquidity position with $561.8 million in cash against $876.2 million of total debt, yielding a conservative net debt position. The balance sheet supports seasonal working capital needs in agriculture operations. Debt/EBITDA of approximately 2.5x (based on trailing figures) indicates manageable leverage within industry norms for commodity businesses.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Historical growth has been uneven due to agricultural market cycles, with recent performance benefiting from elevated crop prices. The $0.77 annual dividend (23% payout ratio) reflects a balanced capital return approach. Future growth may hinge on railcar leasing expansion and ethanol demand trends, with limited visibility on large-scale M&A.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Trading at ~12x trailing P/E, the market appears to price in normalized mid-cycle earnings rather than peak commodity conditions. EV/EBITDA multiples align with diversified agribusiness peers, discounting for smaller scale and higher earnings volatility compared to sector leaders.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Andersons' integrated supply chain capabilities and regional expertise provide defensive advantages during market dislocations. Near-term performance will depend on grain export volumes, renewable fuel policy impacts on ethanol, and rail utilization rates. The company is well-positioned for moderate growth but remains exposed to agricultural commodity swings and input cost inflation.

Sources

Company 10-K, Bloomberg financial data

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %NaN
Revenue, $NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $mNaN
Operating income, $mNaN
EBITDA, $mNaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $mNaN
Tax expense, $mNaN
Net income, $mNaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $mNaN
Total assets, $mNaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $mNaN
Average production assets, $mNaN
Working capital, $mNaN
Total debt, $mNaN
Total liabilities, $mNaN
Total equity, $mNaN
Debt-to-equity ratioNaN
Adjusted equity ratioNaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $mNaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $mNaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $mNaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $mNaN
Free cash flow, $mNaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $mNaN
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
HomeMenuAccount