Investor's Craft

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Investor's Craft

Intrinsic Value of Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF)

Previous Close	$76.57
Intrinsic Value	$290.07
Upside potential	+279%

Previous Close

$76.57

Intrinsic Value

$290.07

Potential

+279%

VALUATION INPUT DATA

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	2036	2037	2038	2039	2040	2041	2042	2043	2044	2045	2046	2047	2048	2049
INCOME STATEMENT
Revenue growth rate, %	15.8	15.3	14.7	14.3	13.8	13.4	12.9	12.5	12.2	11.8	11.5	11.1	10.8	10.5	10.3	10.0	9.8	9.5	9.3	9.1	8.9	8.7	8.5	8.3	8.2
Revenue, $	4957	5713	6556	7491	8524	9663	10913	12282	13776	15403	17169	19082	21150	23380	25780	28359	31125	34087	37253	40634	44239	48078	52162	56501	61108
Variable operating expenses, $m	2692	3102	3560	4068	4629	5247	5926	6669	7480	8364	9323	10361	11484	12695	13999	15399	16901	18509	20228	22064	24022	26106	28324	30680	33182
Fixed operating expenses, $m	1596	1732	1879	2038	2212	2400	2604	2825	3065	3326	3608	3915	4248	4609	5000	5426	5887	6387	6930	7519	8158	8852	9604	10420	11306
Total operating expenses, $m	4288	4834	5439	6106	6841	7647	8530	9494	10545	11690	12931	14276	15732	17304	18999	20825	22788	24896	27158	29583	32180	34958	37928	41100	44488
Operating income, $m	669	880	1117	1385	1684	2016	2384	2788	3231	3713	4238	4806	5418	6076	6781	7534	8337	9190	10095	11051	12059	13120	14234	15401	16620
EBITDA, $m	811	1043	1306	1602	1932	2298	2703	3149	3637	4169	4747	5373	6049	6775	7554	8387	9275	10220	11222	12283	13403	14583	15824	17126	18489
Interest expense (income), $m	42	98	114	131	150	171	195	220	248	279	312	348	388	430	476	525	578	634	695	760	829	903	981	1065	1154
Earnings before tax, $m	628	781	1004	1254	1534	1845	2189	2568	2982	3435	3926	4457	5030	5646	6305	7010	7760	8556	9400	10291	11230	12217	13253	14336	15467
Tax expense, $m	169	211	271	339	414	498	591	693	805	927	1060	1203	1358	1524	1702	1893	2095	2310	2538	2779	3032	3299	3578	3871	4176
Net income, $m	458	570	733	915	1120	1347	1598	1874	2177	2507	2866	3254	3672	4121	4603	5117	5665	6246	6862	7512	8198	8919	9674	10465	11291
BALANCE SHEET
Cash and short-term investments, $m	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total assets, $m	3172	3657	4196	4794	5456	6184	6984	7860	8817	9858	10988	12212	13536	14963	16499	18150	19920	21815	23842	26006	28313	30770	33384	36161	39109
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m	3172	3657	4196	4794	5456	6184	6984	7860	8817	9858	10988	12212	13536	14963	16499	18150	19920	21815	23842	26006	28313	30770	33384	36161	39109
Average production assets, $m	1442	1663	1908	2180	2481	2812	3176	3574	4009	4482	4996	5553	6155	6803	7502	8252	9057	9919	10841	11825	12874	13991	15179	16442	17783
Working capital, $m	714	823	944	1079	1228	1391	1572	1769	1984	2218	2472	2748	3046	3367	3712	4084	4482	4908	5364	5851	6370	6923	7511	8136	8800
Total debt, $m	2457	2845	3276	3755	4284	4867	5507	6208	6973	7806	8710	9689	10748	11890	13119	14439	15855	17372	18993	20724	22570	24535	26626	28848	31207
Total liabilities, $m	2538	2925	3357	3835	4364	4947	5588	6288	7053	7886	8790	9770	10829	11970	13199	14520	15936	17452	19074	20805	22650	24616	26707	28929	31287
Total equity, $m	634	731	839	959	1091	1237	1397	1572	1763	1972	2198	2442	2707	2993	3300	3630	3984	4363	4768	5201	5663	6154	6677	7232	7822
Debt-to-equity ratio	1.652	3.360	3.390	3.417	3.441	3.464	3.484	3.503	3.520	3.537	3.552	3.566	3.579	3.592	3.603	3.614	3.624	3.634	3.643	3.652	3.660	3.668	3.675	3.682	3.688
Adjusted equity ratio	0.200	0.200	0.200	0.200	0.200	0.200	0.200	0.200	0.200	0.200	0.200	0.200	0.200	0.200	0.200	0.200	0.200	0.200	0.200	0.200	0.200	0.200	0.200	0.200	0.200
CASH FLOW
Net income, $m	458	570	733	915	1120	1347	1598	1874	2177	2507	2866	3254	3672	4121	4603	5117	5665	6246	6862	7512	8198	8919	9674	10465	11291
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m	142	164	189	217	248	282	320	361	406	456	509	568	631	699	773	852	938	1029	1127	1232	1344	1463	1590	1725	1868
Funds from operations, $m	600	734	922	1132	1367	1629	1918	2235	2583	2963	3375	3821	4303	4821	5376	5970	6602	7275	7989	8744	9542	10382	11264	12190	13159
Change in working capital, $m	97	109	121	135	149	164	180	197	215	234	254	275	298	321	346	371	398	426	456	487	519	553	588	625	663
Cash from operations, $m	502	625	800	998	1219	1465	1738	2038	2368	2729	3121	3546	4005	4500	5030	5598	6204	6849	7533	8257	9023	9829	10676	11565	12496
Maintenance CAPEX, $m	-142	-164	-189	-217	-248	-282	-320	-361	-406	-456	-509	-568	-631	-699	-773	-852	-938	-1029	-1127	-1232	-1344	-1463	-1590	-1725	-1868
New CAPEX, $m	-197	-220	-245	-272	-301	-331	-364	-398	-435	-473	-514	-557	-602	-649	-699	-750	-805	-862	-921	-984	-1049	-1117	-1188	-1263	-1341
Total CAPEX, $m	-338	-384	-434	-489	-548	-613	-683	-759	-841	-929	-1023	-1124	-1233	-1348	-1472	-1603	-1743	-1891	-2049	-2216	-2393	-2580	-2778	-2988	-3209
Free cash flow, $m	164	241	366	509	670	852	1054	1279	1527	1800	2097	2421	2773	3151	3559	3995	4461	4958	5484	6042	6630	7249	7898	8577	9287
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Retained Cash Flow, $m	-4	-97	-108	-120	-132	-146	-160	-175	-191	-208	-226	-245	-265	-285	-307	-330	-354	-379	-405	-433	-461	-491	-523	-555	-590
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m	405
Cash available for distribution, $m	565	144	258	389	538	706	894	1104	1336	1591	1871	2177	2508	2866	3252	3665	4107	4579	5079	5609	6168	6757	7375	8022	8697
Discount rate, %	4.90	5.15	5.40	5.67	5.96	6.25	6.57	6.89	7.24	7.60	7.98	8.38	8.80	9.24	9.70	10.19	10.70	11.23	11.79	12.38	13.00	13.65	14.33	15.05	15.80
PV of cash for distribution, $m	538	131	221	312	403	490	573	648	712	765	804	829	838	832	811	776	730	674	611	543	474	405	339	277	222
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Investor's Craft

Investor's Craft

Intrinsic Value of Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF)

VALUATION INPUT DATA

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

INCOME STATEMENT

BALANCE SHEET

CASH FLOW