investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic Value of Aon plc (AON)

Previous Close$355.67
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$355.67

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Aon plc operates as a leading global professional services firm specializing in risk, retirement, and health solutions. The company serves clients across industries, including corporations, insurers, and governments, through its core segments: Commercial Risk, Reinsurance, Health, Wealth, and Human Capital. Aon’s revenue model is primarily fee-based, driven by advisory services, brokerage, and data analytics, positioning it as a trusted intermediary in complex risk management and employee benefits. The firm differentiates itself through its Aon United strategy, which integrates cross-segment expertise to deliver tailored solutions. In the competitive insurance brokerage and consulting sector, Aon maintains a top-tier market position alongside peers like Marsh & McLennan. Its global scale, proprietary data platforms (e.g., Aon Insights), and strategic acquisitions reinforce its ability to address evolving client needs, such as cyber risk and climate resilience. The company’s focus on innovation, including its Aon Business Services platform, enhances operational efficiency and client retention.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Aon reported $15.7 billion in revenue for FY 2024, with net income of $2.65 billion, reflecting a robust 16.9% net margin. Diluted EPS stood at $12.49, supported by disciplined cost management and revenue diversification. Operating cash flow of $3.04 billion underscores strong cash conversion, while capital expenditures of $218 million indicate moderate reinvestment needs relative to scale.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings power is evident in its consistent profitability and high return on invested capital (ROIC), driven by asset-light operations and recurring revenue streams. Aon’s capital efficiency is further highlighted by its ability to generate substantial free cash flow, which funds dividends, share repurchases, and strategic M&A.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Aon’s balance sheet shows $1.09 billion in cash and equivalents against $17.89 billion in total debt, reflecting a leveraged but manageable position. The debt load is typical for the industry, supported by strong cash flows and investment-grade credit ratings. Liquidity remains adequate for operational and growth needs.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Organic revenue growth has been steady, fueled by demand for risk advisory and health solutions. Aon’s dividend policy is shareholder-friendly, with a $2.66 annual dividend per share, though the payout ratio remains conservative to prioritize reinvestment and M&A. Share buybacks further enhance capital returns.

Valuation And Market Expectations

The market values Aon at a premium multiple, reflecting its leadership position, sticky client relationships, and growth potential in high-margin segments like cyber and analytics. Consensus estimates project mid-single-digit revenue growth and margin expansion, assuming continued execution on cross-selling and cost initiatives.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Aon’s strategic advantages include its global footprint, data-driven insights, and integrated service model. Near-term headwinds like macroeconomic volatility are offset by long-term tailwinds in risk complexity and workforce solutions. The outlook remains positive, with management focused on technology adoption and strategic partnerships to sustain competitive differentiation.

Sources

Aon plc 10-K (FY 2024), investor presentations, Bloomberg

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %NaN
Revenue, $NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $mNaN
Operating income, $mNaN
EBITDA, $mNaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $mNaN
Tax expense, $mNaN
Net income, $mNaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $mNaN
Total assets, $mNaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $mNaN
Average production assets, $mNaN
Working capital, $mNaN
Total debt, $mNaN
Total liabilities, $mNaN
Total equity, $mNaN
Debt-to-equity ratioNaN
Adjusted equity ratioNaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $mNaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $mNaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $mNaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $mNaN
Free cash flow, $mNaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $mNaN
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
HomeMenuAccount