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Intrinsic Value of ArcBest Corporation (ARCB)

Previous Close$82.23
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$82.23

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

ArcBest Corporation operates as a logistics and freight transportation provider, offering asset-based and asset-light solutions across North America. The company’s core segments include asset-based truckload services, expedited freight, and managed logistics, catering to diverse industries such as retail, manufacturing, and food & beverage. ArcBest leverages its integrated network to optimize supply chain efficiency, combining traditional trucking with technology-driven brokerage and warehousing services. Its asset-light model provides flexibility, while its asset-based operations ensure reliability in a competitive logistics sector. The company differentiates itself through advanced tracking systems, customer-centric solutions, and a reputation for on-time performance. Positioned as a mid-tier player, ArcBest competes with larger freight providers by focusing on regional strengths and specialized services. Its hybrid approach balances cost efficiency with service quality, appealing to shippers seeking scalable, end-to-end logistics support.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

ArcBest reported revenue of $4.18 billion for FY 2024, with net income of $174 million, reflecting a 4.2% net margin. Diluted EPS stood at $7.30, supported by disciplined cost management. Operating cash flow of $286 million and capital expenditures of $223 million indicate moderate reinvestment needs. The company’s asset-light operations contribute to capital efficiency, though margins remain sensitive to fuel and labor cost fluctuations.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings power is driven by its diversified service mix, with asset-light segments providing higher-margin growth. Operating cash flow covers capital expenditures comfortably, suggesting sustainable reinvestment capacity. ROIC trends align with industry peers, though cyclical freight demand introduces variability. ArcBest’s capital allocation prioritizes technology and fleet upgrades to maintain service competitiveness.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

ArcBest maintains a conservative balance sheet, with $127 million in cash and equivalents against $413 million in total debt. The debt-to-equity ratio appears manageable, supported by steady cash flow generation. Liquidity is adequate for operational needs, with no immediate refinancing risks. The company’s financial health is stable, though leverage could increase if freight demand softens.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Revenue growth has been steady, benefiting from e-commerce and supply chain diversification trends. ArcBest’s dividend of $0.48 per share yields approximately 0.7%, reflecting a modest payout ratio. The company prioritizes organic growth and selective acquisitions over aggressive shareholder returns, aligning with its capital-light expansion strategy.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Trading at a mid-teens P/E multiple, ArcBest is valued in line with asset-light logistics peers. Market expectations hinge on sustained freight demand and margin stability. The stock’s performance is closely tied to macroeconomic indicators, including industrial production and retail inventory cycles.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

ArcBest’s hybrid model and technology investments position it to adapt to shifting logistics trends. Near-term challenges include fuel price volatility and driver shortages, but long-term prospects are bolstered by e-commerce growth and supply chain complexity. The company’s focus on operational agility and customer partnerships supports resilience in a cyclical industry.

Sources

10-K filing, company investor relations

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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