Investor's Craft

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Investor's Craft

Intrinsic Value of AptarGroup, Inc. (ATR)

Previous Close	$158.53
Intrinsic Value	$13.37
Upside potential	-92%

Previous Close

$158.53

Intrinsic Value

$13.37

Potential

-92%

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Quarterly Revenue – actual and YoY change

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	2036	2037	2038	2039	2040	2041	2042	2043	2044	2045	2046	2047	2048	2049
INCOME STATEMENT
Revenue growth rate, %	2.7	2.8	2.9	3.0	3.1	3.2	3.3	3.4	3.5	3.6	3.6	3.7	3.8	3.8	3.9	3.9	4.0	4.0	4.1	4.1	4.2	4.2	4.3	4.3	4.3
Revenue, $	3680	3783	3894	4012	4137	4270	4412	4561	4720	4888	5065	5252	5449	5657	5876	6108	6351	6608	6878	7162	7461	7775	8106	8454	8820
Variable operating expenses, $m	2859	2940	3026	3117	3215	3318	3428	3544	3667	3798	3935	4080	4234	4395	4566	4746	4935	5134	5344	5565	5797	6042	6299	6569	6853
Fixed operating expenses, $m	328	356	386	419	454	493	535	580	629	683	741	804	872	946	1027	1114	1209	1312	1423	1544	1675	1818	1972	2140	2322
Total operating expenses, $m	3187	3296	3412	3536	3669	3811	3963	4124	4296	4481	4676	4884	5106	5341	5593	5860	6144	6446	6767	7109	7472	7860	8271	8709	9175
Operating income, $m	493	488	483	476	468	460	449	437	423	407	388	367	343	315	284	248	207	162	111	53	-12	-84	-165	-255	-355
EBITDA, $m	712	713	714	714	714	712	710	707	702	696	687	677	664	648	629	607	581	550	515	474	426	372	311	241	162
Interest expense (income), $m	43	30	35	39	45	50	56	62	69	76	83	91	100	108	118	127	138	148	160	172	184	197	211	226	241
Earnings before tax, $m	450	458	448	437	424	409	393	375	354	331	305	276	243	207	166	121	70	14	-49	-119	-196	-281	-376	-481	-596
Tax expense, $m	121	124	121	118	114	110	106	101	96	89	82	74	66	56	45	33	19	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Net income, $m	328	334	327	319	309	299	287	273	258	242	223	201	178	151	121	88	51	10	-49	-119	-196	-281	-376	-481	-596
BALANCE SHEET
Cash and short-term investments, $m	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total assets, $m	4526	4653	4789	4934	5089	5253	5426	5611	5806	6012	6229	6459	6702	6958	7228	7512	7812	8127	8459	8809	9177	9564	9971	10399	10849
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m	4526	4653	4789	4934	5089	5253	5426	5611	5806	6012	6229	6459	6702	6958	7228	7512	7812	8127	8459	8809	9177	9564	9971	10399	10849
Average production assets, $m	2543	2614	2691	2772	2859	2951	3049	3152	3261	3377	3500	3629	3765	3909	4061	4220	4389	4566	4752	4949	5155	5373	5601	5842	6095
Working capital, $m	210	216	222	229	236	243	251	260	269	279	289	299	311	322	335	348	362	377	392	408	425	443	462	482	503
Total debt, $m	750	865	987	1118	1257	1404	1560	1726	1902	2087	2283	2490	2709	2939	3182	3438	3707	3991	4290	4605	4936	5284	5650	6036	6441
Total liabilities, $m	4073	4188	4310	4441	4580	4727	4884	5050	5225	5410	5606	5813	6032	6262	6505	6761	7031	7315	7614	7928	8259	8607	8974	9359	9764
Total equity, $m	453	465	479	493	509	525	543	561	581	601	623	646	670	696	723	751	781	813	846	881	918	956	997	1040	1085
Debt-to-equity ratio	2.378	1.612	1.805	2.001	2.196	2.392	2.587	2.781	2.973	3.163	3.350	3.535	3.715	3.893	4.066	4.235	4.401	4.562	4.718	4.870	5.018	5.161	5.300	5.434	5.563
Adjusted equity ratio	0.100	0.100	0.100	0.100	0.100	0.100	0.100	0.100	0.100	0.100	0.100	0.100	0.100	0.100	0.100	0.100	0.100	0.100	0.100	0.100	0.100	0.100	0.100	0.100	0.100
CASH FLOW
Net income, $m	328	334	327	319	309	299	287	273	258	242	223	201	178	151	121	88	51	10	-49	-119	-196	-281	-376	-481	-596
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m	219	225	231	238	245	253	261	270	279	289	299	310	321	333	346	359	373	388	404	421	438	456	475	496	517
Funds from operations, $m	547	559	558	557	555	552	548	543	537	530	521	511	499	484	467	447	424	398	355	302	242	175	100	15	-79
Change in working capital, $m	6	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	13	13	14	15	15	16	17	18	19	20	21
Cash from operations, $m	542	553	552	550	547	544	540	535	528	521	511	500	487	472	455	434	411	384	340	286	225	157	81	-5	-100
Maintenance CAPEX, $m	-219	-225	-231	-238	-245	-253	-261	-270	-279	-289	-299	-310	-321	-333	-346	-359	-373	-388	-404	-421	-438	-456	-475	-496	-517
New CAPEX, $m	-67	-72	-76	-81	-87	-92	-98	-103	-110	-116	-122	-129	-136	-144	-152	-160	-168	-177	-187	-196	-207	-217	-229	-240	-253
Total CAPEX, $m	-286	-297	-308	-320	-332	-345	-359	-373	-388	-404	-421	-439	-457	-477	-498	-519	-542	-566	-591	-617	-645	-674	-704	-736	-770
Free cash flow, $m	256	257	244	230	215	199	181	162	140	116	90	61	30	-5	-43	-85	-131	-182	-251	-331	-419	-517	-623	-741	-870
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m	149	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	30	70	113	161	214	284	366	456	555	664	784	915
Retained Cash Flow, $m	-397	-13	-14	-15	-15	-16	-17	-18	-19	-21	-22	-23	-24	-26	-27	-28	-30	-32	-33	-35	-37	-39	-41	-43	-45
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m	-7
Cash available for distribution, $m	0	244	231	216	200	183	164	143	120	96	68	38	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Discount rate, %	6.10	6.40	6.73	7.06	7.41	7.79	8.17	8.58	9.01	9.46	9.94	10.43	10.95	11.50	12.08	12.68	13.32	13.98	14.68	15.41	16.19	16.99	17.84	18.74	19.67
PV of cash for distribution, $m	0	216	190	164	140	117	94	74	55	39	24	12	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %	79	79	79	79	79	79	79	79	79	79	79	79	79	78	78	76	75	73	70	68	64	61	57	52	48

Investor's Craft

Investor's Craft

Intrinsic Value of AptarGroup, Inc. (ATR)

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Quarterly Revenue – actual and YoY change

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

INCOME STATEMENT

BALANCE SHEET

CASH FLOW