investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic Value of BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ)

Previous Close$107.44
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$107.44

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2025 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. operates as a membership-based warehouse club chain, serving both individual consumers and small businesses. The company generates revenue primarily through membership fees and the sale of bulk groceries, general merchandise, and gasoline. Positioned as a value-oriented retailer, BJ's competes with larger players like Costco and Sam's Club by emphasizing localized assortments, private-label brands, and digital integration. Its hybrid model combines physical warehouse clubs with e-commerce capabilities, catering to cost-conscious shoppers seeking convenience and savings. The company differentiates itself through a curated product selection, competitive pricing, and a focus on suburban markets, where it maintains strong brand loyalty. BJ's operates in a highly competitive sector but has carved out a niche by balancing scale with regional adaptability.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

In FY 2025, BJ's reported revenue of $20.5 billion, with net income of $534 million, reflecting a net margin of approximately 2.6%. The company's diluted EPS stood at $4.00, supported by disciplined cost management. Operating cash flow was robust at $901 million, though capital expenditures of $588 million indicate ongoing investments in store upgrades and digital infrastructure. These metrics suggest efficient operations but highlight the thin margins typical of the wholesale club industry.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

BJ's demonstrates steady earnings power, with operating cash flow covering capital expenditures comfortably. The absence of dividends allows reinvestment into growth initiatives, including store expansions and technology enhancements. The company's capital efficiency is evident in its ability to maintain profitability despite competitive pressures, though its reliance on membership fees for margin stability remains a critical factor.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

BJ's balance sheet shows $28.3 million in cash and equivalents against total debt of $2.84 billion, indicating a leveraged position. However, strong operating cash flow provides liquidity to service obligations. The lack of dividends suggests a focus on debt management and growth funding. Financial health appears stable, but the high debt load warrants monitoring, especially in a rising interest rate environment.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

BJ's has pursued growth through store expansions and digital initiatives, though its dividend policy remains conservative, with no payouts as of FY 2025. Revenue growth trends align with industry averages, driven by membership retention and private-label expansion. The company's focus on reinvestment over shareholder returns reflects its growth-oriented strategy, targeting market share gains in a competitive landscape.

Valuation And Market Expectations

With a diluted EPS of $4.00 and no dividend yield, BJ's valuation hinges on earnings growth and market share gains. Investors likely price the stock based on its ability to sustain profitability amid inflationary pressures and competition. The market expects continued efficiency improvements and strategic investments to drive long-term value.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

BJ's strategic advantages include its membership model, private-label strength, and regional focus. The outlook depends on its ability to balance growth investments with margin preservation. Success in digital integration and cost control will be critical, as will navigating macroeconomic headwinds. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on value-seeking consumer trends but faces stiff competition from larger rivals.

Sources

Company filings (10-K), investor presentations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044204520462047204820492050

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %NaN
Revenue, $NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $mNaN
Operating income, $mNaN
EBITDA, $mNaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $mNaN
Tax expense, $mNaN
Net income, $mNaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $mNaN
Total assets, $mNaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $mNaN
Average production assets, $mNaN
Working capital, $mNaN
Total debt, $mNaN
Total liabilities, $mNaN
Total equity, $mNaN
Debt-to-equity ratioNaN
Adjusted equity ratioNaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $mNaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $mNaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $mNaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $mNaN
Free cash flow, $mNaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $mNaN
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
HomeMenuAccount