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Intrinsic Value of The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG)

Previous Close$58.35
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$58.35

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

The Carlyle Group Inc. is a leading global investment firm specializing in private equity, credit, and investment solutions across a diversified portfolio. Operating in a highly competitive asset management industry, Carlyle generates revenue primarily through management fees, performance fees, and investment income. The firm serves institutional and high-net-worth investors, leveraging its deep sector expertise in aerospace, defense, healthcare, and technology to drive value creation. Carlyle’s market position is reinforced by its extensive global network, proprietary deal-sourcing capabilities, and disciplined investment approach. The firm differentiates itself through its ability to identify undervalued assets, execute complex transactions, and optimize portfolio company performance. With a presence in North America, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, Carlyle maintains a robust pipeline of investment opportunities, positioning it as a key player in alternative asset management.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

In FY 2024, Carlyle reported revenue of $4.09 billion, with net income reaching $1.02 billion, reflecting a net margin of approximately 25%. Diluted EPS stood at $2.77, demonstrating strong profitability. However, operating cash flow was negative at -$759.5 million, partly due to capital expenditures of -$77.7 million, indicating significant reinvestment activities. The firm’s ability to generate consistent fee-related earnings underscores its operational efficiency.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

Carlyle’s earnings power is driven by its diversified fee streams and performance-based income. The firm’s capital efficiency is evident in its ability to deploy capital across high-growth sectors while maintaining disciplined underwriting standards. With $2.1 billion in cash and equivalents, Carlyle retains flexibility for strategic investments, though its total debt of $9.5 billion suggests a leveraged balance sheet, common in the private equity industry.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Carlyle’s balance sheet reflects a cash position of $2.1 billion against total debt of $9.5 billion, indicating a leveraged but manageable structure. The firm’s liquidity position supports ongoing operations and growth initiatives, while its debt profile aligns with industry norms for asset managers. Financial health remains stable, with sufficient coverage ratios and access to capital markets.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Carlyle has demonstrated resilience in growing its asset base and fee-related earnings, supported by strong fundraising and investment performance. The firm’s dividend policy, with a payout of $1.40 per share, reflects a commitment to returning capital to shareholders while retaining funds for growth. Future growth is likely to be driven by expansion in credit and secondary market strategies.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Carlyle’s valuation reflects its position as a premier alternative asset manager, with market expectations centered on sustained fee growth and performance income. The firm’s ability to navigate macroeconomic uncertainties and capitalize on sector-specific opportunities will be critical in meeting investor expectations. Current metrics suggest a balanced risk-reward profile.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Carlyle’s strategic advantages include its global scale, sector expertise, and strong investor relationships. The outlook remains positive, with growth opportunities in private credit and secondary markets. However, macroeconomic volatility and competition for deals pose challenges. The firm’s disciplined approach and diversified portfolio position it well for long-term success.

Sources

Company filings, investor presentations

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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