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Intrinsic Value of Chorus Aviation Inc. (CHR.TO)

Previous Close$23.08
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$23.08

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Chorus Aviation Inc. operates as a key player in the regional aviation sector, offering a diversified suite of services including contract flying, aircraft leasing, and maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) solutions. The company serves both commercial and charter operators, leveraging its fleet of regional aircraft such as Dash 8-400s, ATR72-600s, and A220-300s. Its dual-segment structure—Regional Aviation Services and Regional Aircraft Leasing—allows it to capture revenue from operational contracts as well as long-term leasing agreements, providing stability amid industry volatility. Positioned in a niche market, Chorus benefits from partnerships with major airlines, ensuring consistent demand for its specialized services. The company’s focus on regional connectivity and cost-efficient operations strengthens its competitive edge in North America’s aviation ecosystem. With a balanced portfolio of leased and operated aircraft, Chorus mitigates risks associated with fluctuating fuel prices and passenger demand, maintaining resilience in a capital-intensive industry.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Chorus Aviation reported revenue of CAD 1.40 billion, though it faced a net loss of CAD 158.5 million, reflecting industry-wide challenges such as rising operational costs and post-pandemic recovery pressures. The company generated CAD 265 million in operating cash flow, demonstrating its ability to maintain liquidity despite profitability headwinds. Capital expenditures of CAD 52.9 million suggest disciplined reinvestment in fleet and maintenance capabilities.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The diluted EPS of -CAD 5.79 highlights near-term earnings pressure, likely driven by debt servicing costs and fleet maintenance expenses. However, the company’s leasing segment provides recurring revenue, which may stabilize cash flows over time. The negative net income underscores the need for operational optimization to improve capital efficiency in a high-beta (1.76) industry.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Chorus holds CAD 222.2 million in cash and equivalents against total debt of CAD 516.4 million, indicating moderate leverage. The absence of dividends aligns with its focus on debt management and liquidity preservation. The balance sheet reflects the capital-intensive nature of aviation, with leased assets contributing to long-term liabilities.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Growth prospects hinge on regional aviation demand recovery and leasing portfolio expansion. The company has suspended dividends (CAD 0.00 per share) to prioritize financial flexibility. Future trends may benefit from increased regional travel and partnerships, though fuel price volatility remains a risk.

Valuation And Market Expectations

With a market cap of CAD 541.8 million, Chorus trades at a discount to revenue, reflecting investor caution amid its net losses. The high beta suggests sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts, implying elevated risk-adjusted return expectations from the market.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Chorus’s integrated model and regional focus provide defensive advantages against broader airline industry downturns. Strategic partnerships and fleet diversification could drive recovery, but near-term challenges persist. The outlook depends on cost containment and demand normalization in regional aviation.

Sources

Company filings, market data

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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