Fiscal year | | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 |
INCOME STATEMENT |
Revenue growth rate, % | | -6.4 | -5.8 | -5.3 | -4.8 | -4.3 | -3.8 | -3.4 | -3.0 | -2.6 | -2.2 | -1.8 | -1.5 | -1.2 | -0.9 | -0.6 | -0.3 | -0.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
Revenue, $ | | 184311 | 173565 | 164386 | 156538 | 149830 | 144105 | 139234 | 135111 | 131648 | 128772 | 126421 | 124545 | 123100 | 122051 | 121368 | 121026 | 121005 | 121288 | 121860 | 122711 | 123831 | 125215 | 126858 | 128756 | 130908 |
Variable operating expenses, $m | | 104873 | 98759 | 93536 | 89070 | 85253 | 81996 | 79224 | 76878 | 74908 | 73271 | 71934 | 70866 | 70044 | 69447 | 69058 | 68864 | 68852 | 69013 | 69338 | 69822 | 70460 | 71248 | 72182 | 73262 | 74486 |
Fixed operating expenses, $m | | 42040 | 45614 | 49491 | 53698 | 58262 | 63214 | 68588 | 74418 | 80743 | 87606 | 95053 | 103132 | 111899 | 121410 | 131730 | 142927 | 155076 | 168257 | 182559 | 198076 | 214913 | 233181 | 253001 | 274506 | 297839 |
Total operating expenses, $m | | 146913 | 144373 | 143027 | 142768 | 143515 | 145210 | 147812 | 151296 | 155651 | 160877 | 166987 | 173998 | 181943 | 190857 | 200788 | 211791 | 223928 | 237270 | 251897 | 267898 | 285373 | 304429 | 325183 | 347768 | 372325 |
Operating income, $m | | 37397 | 29193 | 21359 | 13770 | 6315 | -1105 | -8578 | -16185 | -24003 | -32106 | -40565 | -49454 | -58843 | -68806 | -79420 | -90764 | -102922 | -115982 | -130037 | -145188 | -161542 | -179213 | -198325 | -219012 | -241418 |
EBITDA, $m | | 51904 | 42771 | 34146 | 25880 | 17847 | 9933 | 2038 | -5927 | -14049 | -22407 | -31079 | -40140 | -49667 | -59737 | -70429 | -81823 | -94006 | -107068 | -121102 | -136211 | -152502 | -170090 | -189101 | -209667 | -231932 |
Interest expense (income), $m | | 1043 | 1295 | 1079 | 894 | 735 | 600 | 485 | 387 | 303 | 234 | 176 | 128 | 90 | 61 | 40 | 26 | 19 | 19 | 25 | 36 | 53 | 76 | 104 | 137 | 175 |
Earnings before tax, $m | | 36355 | 27897 | 20281 | 12877 | 5579 | -1705 | -9063 | -16571 | -24306 | -32339 | -40741 | -49582 | -58933 | -68867 | -79460 | -90791 | -102942 | -116001 | -130062 | -145224 | -161595 | -179289 | -198429 | -219149 | -241593 |
Tax expense, $m | | 9816 | 7532 | 5476 | 3477 | 1506 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Net income, $m | | 26539 | 20365 | 14805 | 9400 | 4073 | -1705 | -9063 | -16571 | -24306 | -32339 | -40741 | -49582 | -58933 | -68867 | -79460 | -90791 | -102942 | -116001 | -130062 | -145224 | -161595 | -179289 | -198429 | -219149 | -241593 |
BALANCE SHEET |
Cash and short-term investments, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total assets, $m | | 232231 | 218692 | 207127 | 197238 | 188786 | 181572 | 175435 | 170240 | 165877 | 162253 | 159291 | 156926 | 155106 | 153784 | 152924 | 152493 | 152467 | 152823 | 153544 | 154616 | 156028 | 157771 | 159841 | 162232 | 164944 |
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m | | 232231 | 218692 | 207127 | 197238 | 188786 | 181572 | 175435 | 170240 | 165877 | 162253 | 159291 | 156926 | 155106 | 153784 | 152924 | 152493 | 152467 | 152823 | 153544 | 154616 | 156028 | 157771 | 159841 | 162232 | 164944 |
Average production assets, $m | | 148001 | 139373 | 132002 | 125700 | 120314 | 115716 | 111805 | 108494 | 105714 | 103404 | 101516 | 100009 | 98849 | 98007 | 97459 | 97184 | 97167 | 97394 | 97854 | 98537 | 99437 | 100548 | 101867 | 103391 | 105119 |
Working capital, $m | | 553 | 521 | 493 | 470 | 449 | 432 | 418 | 405 | 395 | 386 | 379 | 374 | 369 | 366 | 364 | 363 | 363 | 364 | 366 | 368 | 371 | 376 | 381 | 386 | 393 |
Total debt, $m | | 32382 | 26966 | 22340 | 18384 | 15003 | 12118 | 9663 | 7585 | 5840 | 4390 | 3205 | 2260 | 1531 | 1003 | 659 | 486 | 476 | 618 | 906 | 1335 | 1900 | 2598 | 3425 | 4382 | 5466 |
Total liabilities, $m | | 92893 | 87477 | 82851 | 78895 | 75514 | 72629 | 70174 | 68096 | 66351 | 64901 | 63716 | 62771 | 62042 | 61514 | 61170 | 60997 | 60987 | 61129 | 61417 | 61846 | 62411 | 63109 | 63936 | 64893 | 65977 |
Total equity, $m | | 139339 | 131215 | 124276 | 118343 | 113272 | 108943 | 105261 | 102144 | 99526 | 97352 | 95574 | 94156 | 93064 | 92271 | 91754 | 91496 | 91480 | 91694 | 92126 | 92769 | 93617 | 94663 | 95905 | 97339 | 98966 |
Debt-to-equity ratio | | 0.187 | 0.247 | 0.217 | 0.189 | 0.162 | 0.138 | 0.115 | 0.095 | 0.076 | 0.060 | 0.046 | 0.034 | 0.024 | 0.017 | 0.011 | 0.007 | 0.005 | 0.005 | 0.007 | 0.010 | 0.014 | 0.020 | 0.027 | 0.035 | 0.044 |
Adjusted equity ratio | | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 |
CASH FLOW |
Net income, $m | | 26539 | 20365 | 14805 | 9400 | 4073 | -1705 | -9063 | -16571 | -24306 | -32339 | -40741 | -49582 | -58933 | -68867 | -79460 | -90791 | -102942 | -116001 | -130062 | -145224 | -161595 | -179289 | -198429 | -219149 | -241593 |
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m | | 14507 | 13578 | 12787 | 12110 | 11532 | 11038 | 10616 | 10257 | 9954 | 9699 | 9487 | 9313 | 9175 | 9069 | 8991 | 8941 | 8916 | 8914 | 8935 | 8977 | 9040 | 9123 | 9225 | 9346 | 9485 |
Funds from operations, $m | | 41045 | 33943 | 27591 | 21510 | 15605 | 9333 | 1554 | -6314 | -14352 | -22641 | -31254 | -40268 | -49758 | -59799 | -70469 | -81850 | -94026 | -107087 | -121127 | -136247 | -152555 | -170166 | -189204 | -209804 | -232108 |
Change in working capital, $m | | -38 | -32 | -28 | -24 | -20 | -17 | -15 | -12 | -10 | -9 | -7 | -6 | -4 | -3 | -2 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
Cash from operations, $m | | 41083 | 33975 | 27619 | 21534 | 15625 | 9350 | 1568 | -6301 | -14342 | -22632 | -31247 | -40263 | -49753 | -59795 | -70467 | -81849 | -94026 | -107088 | -121128 | -136250 | -152558 | -170170 | -189209 | -209809 | -232114 |
Maintenance CAPEX, $m | | -14507 | -13578 | -12787 | -12110 | -11532 | -11038 | -10616 | -10257 | -9954 | -9699 | -9487 | -9313 | -9175 | -9069 | -8991 | -8941 | -8916 | -8914 | -8935 | -8977 | -9040 | -9123 | -9225 | -9346 | -9485 |
New CAPEX, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -227 | -459 | -683 | -900 | -1111 | -1319 | -1524 | -1728 |
Total CAPEX, $m | | -14507 | -13578 | -12787 | -12110 | -11532 | -11038 | -10616 | -10257 | -9954 | -9699 | -9487 | -9313 | -9175 | -9069 | -8991 | -8941 | -8916 | -9141 | -9395 | -9661 | -9940 | -10234 | -10543 | -10870 | -11213 |
Free cash flow, $m | | 26577 | 20397 | 14832 | 9423 | 4093 | -1688 | -9048 | -16559 | -24296 | -32331 | -40734 | -49576 | -58929 | -68864 | -79458 | -90790 | -102942 | -116229 | -130523 | -145910 | -162498 | -180404 | -199753 | -220679 | -243327 |
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6102 | 14065 | 22201 | 30591 | 39312 | 48441 | 58055 | 68230 | 79045 | 90583 | 102929 | 116442 | 130956 | 146553 | 163346 | 181450 | 200995 | 222114 | 244954 |
Retained Cash Flow, $m | | 14571 | 8123 | 6939 | 5933 | 5071 | 4328 | 3682 | 3117 | 2618 | 2174 | 1777 | 1419 | 1092 | 793 | 516 | 258 | 16 | -214 | -433 | -643 | -847 | -1046 | -1242 | -1435 | -1627 |
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m | | 7047 |
Cash available for distribution, $m | | 45281 | 26896 | 20384 | 14170 | 8150 | 1774 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Discount rate, % | | 4.90 | 5.15 | 5.40 | 5.67 | 5.96 | 6.25 | 6.57 | 6.89 | 7.24 | 7.60 | 7.98 | 8.38 | 8.80 | 9.24 | 9.70 | 10.19 | 10.70 | 11.23 | 11.79 | 12.38 | 13.00 | 13.65 | 14.33 | 15.05 | 15.80 |
PV of cash for distribution, $m | | 43165 | 24328 | 17408 | 11364 | 6103 | 1233 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Current shareholders' claim on cash, % | | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 97 | 89 | 79 | 66 | 53 | 40 | 29 | 20 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |