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Intrinsic Value of Chevron Corporation (CVX)

Previous Close$144.84
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$144.84

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2023 and quarterly data as of 2023-12-31.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039204020412042204320442045204620472048

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %-6.4-5.8-5.3-4.8-4.3-3.8-3.4-3.0-2.6-2.2-1.8-1.5-1.2-0.9-0.6-0.3-0.00.20.50.70.91.11.31.51.7
Revenue, $184311173565164386156538149830144105139234135111131648128772126421124545123100122051121368121026121005121288121860122711123831125215126858128756130908
Variable operating expenses, $m104873987599353689070852538199679224768787490873271719347086670044694476905868864688526901369338698227046071248721827326274486
Fixed operating expenses, $m4204045614494915369858262632146858874418807438760695053103132111899121410131730142927155076168257182559198076214913233181253001274506297839
Total operating expenses, $m146913144373143027142768143515145210147812151296155651160877166987173998181943190857200788211791223928237270251897267898285373304429325183347768372325
Operating income, $m373972919321359137706315-1105-8578-16185-24003-32106-40565-49454-58843-68806-79420-90764-102922-115982-130037-145188-161542-179213-198325-219012-241418
EBITDA, $m519044277134146258801784799332038-5927-14049-22407-31079-40140-49667-59737-70429-81823-94006-107068-121102-136211-152502-170090-189101-209667-231932
Interest expense (income), $m10431295107989473560048538730323417612890614026191925365376104137175
Earnings before tax, $m363552789720281128775579-1705-9063-16571-24306-32339-40741-49582-58933-68867-79460-90791-102942-116001-130062-145224-161595-179289-198429-219149-241593
Tax expense, $m9816753254763477150600000000000000000000
Net income, $m26539203651480594004073-1705-9063-16571-24306-32339-40741-49582-58933-68867-79460-90791-102942-116001-130062-145224-161595-179289-198429-219149-241593

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m232231218692207127197238188786181572175435170240165877162253159291156926155106153784152924152493152467152823153544154616156028157771159841162232164944
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m232231218692207127197238188786181572175435170240165877162253159291156926155106153784152924152493152467152823153544154616156028157771159841162232164944
Average production assets, $m148001139373132002125700120314115716111805108494105714103404101516100009988499800797459971849716797394978549853799437100548101867103391105119
Working capital, $m553521493470449432418405395386379374369366364363363364366368371376381386393
Total debt, $m32382269662234018384150031211896637585584043903205226015311003659486476618906133519002598342543825466
Total liabilities, $m92893874778285178895755147262970174680966635164901637166277162042615146117060997609876112961417618466241163109639366489365977
Total equity, $m1393391312151242761183431132721089431052611021449952697352955749415693064922719175491496914809169492126927699361794663959059733998966
Debt-to-equity ratio0.1870.2470.2170.1890.1620.1380.1150.0950.0760.0600.0460.0340.0240.0170.0110.0070.0050.0050.0070.0100.0140.0200.0270.0350.044
Adjusted equity ratio0.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.600

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m26539203651480594004073-1705-9063-16571-24306-32339-40741-49582-58933-68867-79460-90791-102942-116001-130062-145224-161595-179289-198429-219149-241593
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m145071357812787121101153211038106161025799549699948793139175906989918941891689148935897790409123922593469485
Funds from operations, $m410453394327591215101560593331554-6314-14352-22641-31254-40268-49758-59799-70469-81850-94026-107087-121127-136247-152555-170166-189204-209804-232108
Change in working capital, $m-38-32-28-24-20-17-15-12-10-9-7-6-4-3-2-1012334566
Cash from operations, $m410833397527619215341562593501568-6301-14342-22632-31247-40263-49753-59795-70467-81849-94026-107088-121128-136250-152558-170170-189209-209809-232114
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-14507-13578-12787-12110-11532-11038-10616-10257-9954-9699-9487-9313-9175-9069-8991-8941-8916-8914-8935-8977-9040-9123-9225-9346-9485
New CAPEX, $m00000000000000000-227-459-683-900-1111-1319-1524-1728
Total CAPEX, $m-14507-13578-12787-12110-11532-11038-10616-10257-9954-9699-9487-9313-9175-9069-8991-8941-8916-9141-9395-9661-9940-10234-10543-10870-11213
Free cash flow, $m26577203971483294234093-1688-9048-16559-24296-32331-40734-49576-58929-68864-79458-90790-102942-116229-130523-145910-162498-180404-199753-220679-243327
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m0000006102140652220130591393124844158055682307904590583102929116442130956146553163346181450200995222114244954
Retained Cash Flow, $m1457181236939593350714328368231172618217417771419109279351625816-214-433-643-847-1046-1242-1435-1627
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m7047
Cash available for distribution, $m45281268962038414170815017740000000000000000000
Discount rate, %4.905.155.405.675.966.256.576.897.247.607.988.388.809.249.7010.1910.7011.2311.7912.3813.0013.6514.3315.0515.80
PV of cash for distribution, $m43165243281740811364610312330000000000000000000
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %1001001001001001009789796653402920138531100000