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Intrinsic Value of Deere & Company (DE)

Previous Close$507.61
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$507.61

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Deere & Company operates as a global leader in the agricultural, construction, and forestry machinery sectors, providing advanced equipment, technology solutions, and financial services. The company generates revenue through equipment sales, leasing, and aftermarket services, with a strong emphasis on precision agriculture and automation. Its market position is reinforced by brand recognition, extensive dealer networks, and innovation in smart farming technologies, which enhance productivity and sustainability for customers worldwide. Deere’s diversified portfolio mitigates cyclical risks while capitalizing on long-term trends like mechanization and digital transformation in agriculture. The company’s dominance in North America and expanding presence in emerging markets solidify its competitive edge, supported by strategic acquisitions and partnerships. Its integrated financial services segment further strengthens customer loyalty by offering tailored financing solutions, creating a sticky revenue ecosystem.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Deere reported $50.5 billion in revenue for FY 2024, with net income of $7.1 billion, reflecting robust demand for its high-margin precision agriculture equipment. Diluted EPS stood at $25.62, supported by disciplined cost management and pricing power. Operating cash flow of $9.2 billion underscores efficient working capital management, though capital expenditures of $4.8 billion indicate ongoing investments in capacity and innovation.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings power is evident in its strong net income margin of approximately 14%, driven by premium product offerings and aftermarket services. Capital efficiency is balanced between reinvestment and shareholder returns, with free cash flow generation enabling debt servicing and dividend growth. Deere’s focus on high-ROIC projects, such as autonomous machinery, enhances long-term earnings sustainability.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Deere maintains a solid liquidity position with $7.3 billion in cash and equivalents, though total debt of $65.5 billion reflects leveraged growth strategies. The debt load is manageable given consistent cash flow generation and a diversified revenue base. The balance sheet supports ongoing R&D and cyclical downturns, with financial health bolstered by its captive credit arm’s stable performance.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Deere’s growth is fueled by global food demand and infrastructure spending, with a focus on smart farming adoption. The company has a history of dividend reliability, paying $5.82 per share in FY 2024, supported by a payout ratio aligned with earnings stability. Share repurchases and incremental dividend hikes reflect confidence in sustained cash flow generation.

Valuation And Market Expectations

The market values Deere as a cyclical growth play, pricing in premium margins and technological leadership. Forward multiples reflect expectations of steady demand in agriculture and construction, tempered by macroeconomic sensitivity. Investor focus remains on Deere’s ability to monetize its tech-enabled equipment and maintain pricing power amid input cost volatility.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Deere’s strategic advantages include its innovation pipeline, scale, and global distribution network. Near-term challenges include supply chain normalization and farmer income fluctuations, but long-term trends favor its automation and sustainability initiatives. The outlook remains positive, with growth opportunities in precision agriculture and emerging markets offsetting cyclical headwinds.

Sources

Deere & Company FY 2024 10-K, investor presentations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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