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Intrinsic Value of Dollar General Corporation (DG)

Previous Close$86.10
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$86.10

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of 2024-02-02.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %2.22.32.52.62.72.82.93.03.13.23.33.43.53.63.63.73.83.83.93.94.04.04.14.14.2
Revenue, $39543404684146942547437044494246264476734917150762524495423656127581276023962470648246730669923726807558478643818628525188817
Variable operating expenses, $m35589364213732238292393334044841638429064425445686472044881250514523145421556223583416057562930654126802670778736767672679935
Fixed operating expenses, $m154416751817197221392321251927332965321734913787410944584837524956956179670472747892856392911008010937
Total operating expenses, $m37133380963913940264414724276944157456394721948903506955259954623567725905261472640366675469634726867591879341829678680690872
Operating income, $m241023722329228322312173210820351952185917541636150413541187998788552288-6-334-699-1104-1555-2056
EBITDA, $m326032403218319331653132309430502999293828692788269425862463232121591975176615291262961622242-184
Interest expense (income), $m724-127-103-77-50-201246821201612052502993504054625225866537247998779601047
Earnings before tax, $m1687249924332360228121932096198918701739159314321253105583659432630-298-659-1058-1497-1982-2515-3102
Tax expense, $m4556756576376165925665375054694303873382852261608880000000
Net income, $m12311824177617231665160115301452136512691163104591577061043323822-298-659-1058-1497-1982-2515-3102

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m42311433014437245525467634808849503510105261354315561205803260056621966445666843693617201774817777678087584148875939121995034
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m42311433014437245525467634808849503510105261354315561205803260056621966445666843693617201774817777678087584148875939121995034
Average production assets, $m21353218532239322975236002426924983257432655227411283222928730309313883252933734350053634537758392474081642467442064603647961
Working capital, $m12179124641277213104134611384214249146831514515635161541670517287179031855419241199662073021536223852328024222252142625727356
Total debt, $m-3171-2577-1935-1243-500295114420483010403151146262747687601011611548130591465316332181031996721931239982617328463
Total liabilities, $m25386259812662327315280582885329702306063156832589336723481936034373173867440106416174321044890466604852550489525565473157020
Total equity, $m16924173201774918210187051923519801204042104521726224482321324022248782578226737277442880729927311073235033659350373648738014
Debt-to-equity ratio1.069-0.183-0.145-0.106-0.066-0.0260.0150.0560.0970.1390.1800.2200.2610.3000.3400.3780.4160.4530.4900.5250.5600.5930.6260.6580.689
Adjusted equity ratio0.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.400

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m12311824177617231665160115301452136512691163104591577061043323822-298-659-1058-1497-1982-2515-3102
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m849868888910934959987101610461079111411511191123212761322137114231477153515951659172617971871
Funds from operations, $m2081269226642633259925602517246724122349227721972105200218861756160914451180876538162-255-718-1231
Change in working capital, $m26228530833235638140743446149052055058261665168772576580684989594299210441098
Cash from operations, $m181924072356230122422179210920341950185917581646152313871236106988468037427-357-780-1247-1762-2329
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-849-868-888-910-934-959-987-1016-1046-1079-1114-1151-1191-1232-1276-1322-1371-1423-1477-1535-1595-1659-1726-1797-1871
New CAPEX, $m-460-500-540-582-625-669-714-761-809-859-911-965-1021-1080-1141-1204-1271-1340-1413-1489-1568-1652-1739-1830-1925
Total CAPEX, $m-1309-1368-1429-1492-1559-1628-1700-1776-1855-1938-2025-2116-2212-2312-2417-2527-2642-2763-2890-3024-3164-3311-3465-3627-3797
Free cash flow, $m510103992780968455140925795-80-268-470-689-925-1181-1458-1758-2083-2517-2997-3521-4091-4712-5389-6126
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m98910000015734654676199012351498178120852413276531463637417747645400609068397652
Retained Cash Flow, $m1126-396-428-461-495-530-566-603-641-681-722-765-809-856-904-955-1007-1062-1120-1180-1243-1309-1378-1450-1526
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m-11301
Cash available for distribution, $m0643499348188210000000000000000000
Discount rate, %5.906.206.506.837.177.537.918.308.729.159.6110.0910.6011.1311.6812.2712.8813.5214.2014.9115.6516.4417.2618.1219.03
PV of cash for distribution, $m0570413267133130000000000000000000
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %84848484848483838281807876757270686562595653504643