Fiscal year | | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 | 2049 |
INCOME STATEMENT |
Revenue growth rate, % | | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 |
Revenue, $ | | 39543 | 40468 | 41469 | 42547 | 43704 | 44942 | 46264 | 47673 | 49171 | 50762 | 52449 | 54236 | 56127 | 58127 | 60239 | 62470 | 64824 | 67306 | 69923 | 72680 | 75584 | 78643 | 81862 | 85251 | 88817 |
Variable operating expenses, $m | | 35589 | 36421 | 37322 | 38292 | 39333 | 40448 | 41638 | 42906 | 44254 | 45686 | 47204 | 48812 | 50514 | 52314 | 54215 | 56223 | 58341 | 60575 | 62930 | 65412 | 68026 | 70778 | 73676 | 76726 | 79935 |
Fixed operating expenses, $m | | 1544 | 1675 | 1817 | 1972 | 2139 | 2321 | 2519 | 2733 | 2965 | 3217 | 3491 | 3787 | 4109 | 4458 | 4837 | 5249 | 5695 | 6179 | 6704 | 7274 | 7892 | 8563 | 9291 | 10080 | 10937 |
Total operating expenses, $m | | 37133 | 38096 | 39139 | 40264 | 41472 | 42769 | 44157 | 45639 | 47219 | 48903 | 50695 | 52599 | 54623 | 56772 | 59052 | 61472 | 64036 | 66754 | 69634 | 72686 | 75918 | 79341 | 82967 | 86806 | 90872 |
Operating income, $m | | 2410 | 2372 | 2329 | 2283 | 2231 | 2173 | 2108 | 2035 | 1952 | 1859 | 1754 | 1636 | 1504 | 1354 | 1187 | 998 | 788 | 552 | 288 | -6 | -334 | -699 | -1104 | -1555 | -2056 |
EBITDA, $m | | 3260 | 3240 | 3218 | 3193 | 3165 | 3132 | 3094 | 3050 | 2999 | 2938 | 2869 | 2788 | 2694 | 2586 | 2463 | 2321 | 2159 | 1975 | 1766 | 1529 | 1262 | 961 | 622 | 242 | -184 |
Interest expense (income), $m | | 724 | -127 | -103 | -77 | -50 | -20 | 12 | 46 | 82 | 120 | 161 | 205 | 250 | 299 | 350 | 405 | 462 | 522 | 586 | 653 | 724 | 799 | 877 | 960 | 1047 |
Earnings before tax, $m | | 1687 | 2499 | 2433 | 2360 | 2281 | 2193 | 2096 | 1989 | 1870 | 1739 | 1593 | 1432 | 1253 | 1055 | 836 | 594 | 326 | 30 | -298 | -659 | -1058 | -1497 | -1982 | -2515 | -3102 |
Tax expense, $m | | 455 | 675 | 657 | 637 | 616 | 592 | 566 | 537 | 505 | 469 | 430 | 387 | 338 | 285 | 226 | 160 | 88 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Net income, $m | | 1231 | 1824 | 1776 | 1723 | 1665 | 1601 | 1530 | 1452 | 1365 | 1269 | 1163 | 1045 | 915 | 770 | 610 | 433 | 238 | 22 | -298 | -659 | -1058 | -1497 | -1982 | -2515 | -3102 |
BALANCE SHEET |
Cash and short-term investments, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total assets, $m | | 42311 | 43301 | 44372 | 45525 | 46763 | 48088 | 49503 | 51010 | 52613 | 54315 | 56120 | 58032 | 60056 | 62196 | 64456 | 66843 | 69361 | 72017 | 74817 | 77767 | 80875 | 84148 | 87593 | 91219 | 95034 |
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m | | 42311 | 43301 | 44372 | 45525 | 46763 | 48088 | 49503 | 51010 | 52613 | 54315 | 56120 | 58032 | 60056 | 62196 | 64456 | 66843 | 69361 | 72017 | 74817 | 77767 | 80875 | 84148 | 87593 | 91219 | 95034 |
Average production assets, $m | | 21353 | 21853 | 22393 | 22975 | 23600 | 24269 | 24983 | 25743 | 26552 | 27411 | 28322 | 29287 | 30309 | 31388 | 32529 | 33734 | 35005 | 36345 | 37758 | 39247 | 40816 | 42467 | 44206 | 46036 | 47961 |
Working capital, $m | | 12179 | 12464 | 12772 | 13104 | 13461 | 13842 | 14249 | 14683 | 15145 | 15635 | 16154 | 16705 | 17287 | 17903 | 18554 | 19241 | 19966 | 20730 | 21536 | 22385 | 23280 | 24222 | 25214 | 26257 | 27356 |
Total debt, $m | | -3171 | -2577 | -1935 | -1243 | -500 | 295 | 1144 | 2048 | 3010 | 4031 | 5114 | 6262 | 7476 | 8760 | 10116 | 11548 | 13059 | 14653 | 16332 | 18103 | 19967 | 21931 | 23998 | 26173 | 28463 |
Total liabilities, $m | | 25386 | 25981 | 26623 | 27315 | 28058 | 28853 | 29702 | 30606 | 31568 | 32589 | 33672 | 34819 | 36034 | 37317 | 38674 | 40106 | 41617 | 43210 | 44890 | 46660 | 48525 | 50489 | 52556 | 54731 | 57020 |
Total equity, $m | | 16924 | 17320 | 17749 | 18210 | 18705 | 19235 | 19801 | 20404 | 21045 | 21726 | 22448 | 23213 | 24022 | 24878 | 25782 | 26737 | 27744 | 28807 | 29927 | 31107 | 32350 | 33659 | 35037 | 36487 | 38014 |
Debt-to-equity ratio | | 1.069 | -0.183 | -0.145 | -0.106 | -0.066 | -0.026 | 0.015 | 0.056 | 0.097 | 0.139 | 0.180 | 0.220 | 0.261 | 0.300 | 0.340 | 0.378 | 0.416 | 0.453 | 0.490 | 0.525 | 0.560 | 0.593 | 0.626 | 0.658 | 0.689 |
Adjusted equity ratio | | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 |
CASH FLOW |
Net income, $m | | 1231 | 1824 | 1776 | 1723 | 1665 | 1601 | 1530 | 1452 | 1365 | 1269 | 1163 | 1045 | 915 | 770 | 610 | 433 | 238 | 22 | -298 | -659 | -1058 | -1497 | -1982 | -2515 | -3102 |
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m | | 849 | 868 | 888 | 910 | 934 | 959 | 987 | 1016 | 1046 | 1079 | 1114 | 1151 | 1191 | 1232 | 1276 | 1322 | 1371 | 1423 | 1477 | 1535 | 1595 | 1659 | 1726 | 1797 | 1871 |
Funds from operations, $m | | 2081 | 2692 | 2664 | 2633 | 2599 | 2560 | 2517 | 2467 | 2412 | 2349 | 2277 | 2197 | 2105 | 2002 | 1886 | 1756 | 1609 | 1445 | 1180 | 876 | 538 | 162 | -255 | -718 | -1231 |
Change in working capital, $m | | 262 | 285 | 308 | 332 | 356 | 381 | 407 | 434 | 461 | 490 | 520 | 550 | 582 | 616 | 651 | 687 | 725 | 765 | 806 | 849 | 895 | 942 | 992 | 1044 | 1098 |
Cash from operations, $m | | 1819 | 2407 | 2356 | 2301 | 2242 | 2179 | 2109 | 2034 | 1950 | 1859 | 1758 | 1646 | 1523 | 1387 | 1236 | 1069 | 884 | 680 | 374 | 27 | -357 | -780 | -1247 | -1762 | -2329 |
Maintenance CAPEX, $m | | -849 | -868 | -888 | -910 | -934 | -959 | -987 | -1016 | -1046 | -1079 | -1114 | -1151 | -1191 | -1232 | -1276 | -1322 | -1371 | -1423 | -1477 | -1535 | -1595 | -1659 | -1726 | -1797 | -1871 |
New CAPEX, $m | | -460 | -500 | -540 | -582 | -625 | -669 | -714 | -761 | -809 | -859 | -911 | -965 | -1021 | -1080 | -1141 | -1204 | -1271 | -1340 | -1413 | -1489 | -1568 | -1652 | -1739 | -1830 | -1925 |
Total CAPEX, $m | | -1309 | -1368 | -1429 | -1492 | -1559 | -1628 | -1700 | -1776 | -1855 | -1938 | -2025 | -2116 | -2212 | -2312 | -2417 | -2527 | -2642 | -2763 | -2890 | -3024 | -3164 | -3311 | -3465 | -3627 | -3797 |
Free cash flow, $m | | 510 | 1039 | 927 | 809 | 684 | 551 | 409 | 257 | 95 | -80 | -268 | -470 | -689 | -925 | -1181 | -1458 | -1758 | -2083 | -2517 | -2997 | -3521 | -4091 | -4712 | -5389 | -6126 |
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m | | 9891 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 346 | 546 | 761 | 990 | 1235 | 1498 | 1781 | 2085 | 2413 | 2765 | 3146 | 3637 | 4177 | 4764 | 5400 | 6090 | 6839 | 7652 |
Retained Cash Flow, $m | | 1126 | -396 | -428 | -461 | -495 | -530 | -566 | -603 | -641 | -681 | -722 | -765 | -809 | -856 | -904 | -955 | -1007 | -1062 | -1120 | -1180 | -1243 | -1309 | -1378 | -1450 | -1526 |
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m | | -11301 |
Cash available for distribution, $m | | 0 | 643 | 499 | 348 | 188 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Discount rate, % | | 5.90 | 6.20 | 6.50 | 6.83 | 7.17 | 7.53 | 7.91 | 8.30 | 8.72 | 9.15 | 9.61 | 10.09 | 10.60 | 11.13 | 11.68 | 12.27 | 12.88 | 13.52 | 14.20 | 14.91 | 15.65 | 16.44 | 17.26 | 18.12 | 19.03 |
PV of cash for distribution, $m | | 0 | 570 | 413 | 267 | 133 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Current shareholders' claim on cash, % | | 84 | 84 | 84 | 84 | 84 | 84 | 83 | 83 | 82 | 81 | 80 | 78 | 76 | 75 | 72 | 70 | 68 | 65 | 62 | 59 | 56 | 53 | 50 | 46 | 43 |