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Intrinsic Value of Dollar General Corporation (DG)

Previous Close$113.14
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$113.14

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2025 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Dollar General Corporation operates as a leading discount retailer in the United States, serving budget-conscious consumers through a network of over 19,000 stores. The company’s core revenue model revolves around offering a curated selection of consumable essentials, seasonal items, home products, and apparel at competitive price points, typically under $10. Its lean store format and efficient supply chain enable it to maintain low operating costs while targeting rural and suburban markets often underserved by larger retailers. Dollar General’s strategic focus on convenience and affordability positions it as a key player in the value retail sector, competing with dollar stores and mass merchandisers. The company has further strengthened its market position through private-label brands and localized assortments, catering to regional preferences. Its expansion into fresh and frozen food categories has also enhanced customer retention and basket size, reinforcing its value proposition in inflationary environments.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Dollar General reported revenue of $40.61 billion for FY 2025, reflecting its broad customer base and consistent demand for value-oriented products. Net income stood at $1.13 billion, with diluted EPS of $5.11, indicating moderate profitability despite competitive pressures. Operating cash flow of $2.99 billion underscores efficient working capital management, though capital expenditures of $1.31 billion highlight ongoing investments in store growth and renovations.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings power is supported by its high inventory turnover and disciplined cost controls, which mitigate margin pressures. However, elevated debt levels and interest expenses may weigh on capital efficiency. Free cash flow generation remains robust, enabling reinvestment in store expansion and technology upgrades to sustain long-term competitiveness.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Dollar General’s balance sheet shows $932.58 million in cash and equivalents against total debt of $17.46 billion, signaling leveraged financial positioning. While the debt load supports aggressive growth initiatives, it necessitates careful liquidity management. The company’s ability to service debt hinges on stable cash flows and operational execution.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

The retailer continues to prioritize store expansion and same-store sales growth, driven by demographic tailwinds in rural markets. A dividend of $2.36 per share reflects a commitment to shareholder returns, though payout ratios remain conservative to preserve flexibility for reinvestment.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Current valuation metrics suggest the market prices Dollar General as a stable, defensive play in retail, with expectations tied to execution in a challenging macroeconomic environment. Investors likely focus on comp sales trends and margin resilience amid cost inflation.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Dollar General’s proximity to customers, cost leadership, and localized merchandising provide durable advantages. Near-term headwinds include wage inflation and supply chain costs, but long-term prospects remain solid given its niche in value retail and expansion potential.

Sources

Company filings (10-K), investor presentations

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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