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Intrinsic Value of Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)

Previous Close$117.31
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$117.31

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Duke Energy Corporation operates as a leading electric power and natural gas holding company in the U.S., serving approximately 8.4 million customers across the Southeast and Midwest. The company generates revenue primarily through regulated utilities, which account for the majority of its earnings, ensuring stable cash flows under cost-of-service regulatory frameworks. Duke Energy’s diversified portfolio includes nuclear, coal, natural gas, hydroelectric, and renewable energy assets, positioning it as a key player in the transition toward cleaner energy solutions. The company holds a dominant market position in its service territories, benefiting from high barriers to entry and long-term infrastructure investments. Its strategic focus on grid modernization, renewable energy expansion, and decarbonization aligns with evolving regulatory and consumer demands. Duke Energy’s integrated operations and scale provide competitive advantages in operational efficiency and capital allocation, reinforcing its leadership in the utility sector.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Duke Energy reported $30.4 billion in revenue for FY 2024, with net income of $4.5 billion, reflecting a net margin of approximately 14.9%. The company’s diluted EPS stood at $5.71, supported by stable utility operations and disciplined cost management. Operating cash flow of $12.3 billion underscores strong cash generation, though capital expenditures of $12.3 billion highlight significant reinvestment needs to maintain and upgrade infrastructure.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

Duke Energy’s earnings power is anchored in its regulated utility operations, which provide predictable returns on invested capital. The company’s capital efficiency is evident in its ability to fund substantial capex while maintaining profitability. However, high capital intensity, driven by grid modernization and clean energy initiatives, requires careful balance between growth investments and shareholder returns.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Duke Energy’s balance sheet reflects a utility-centric capital structure, with total debt of $85.2 billion and cash reserves of $314 million. The elevated debt level is typical for capital-intensive utilities but is mitigated by stable cash flows and regulatory support. The company’s financial health remains robust, with access to capital markets ensuring liquidity for ongoing projects.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Duke Energy’s growth is driven by rate base expansion, renewable energy investments, and regulatory approvals for capital recovery. The company has a consistent dividend policy, with a dividend per share of $4.16 in FY 2024, appealing to income-focused investors. Future growth will depend on execution of its $65 billion capital plan through 2028, targeting 5-7% annual EPS growth.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Duke Energy’s valuation reflects its status as a low-risk, regulated utility with moderate growth prospects. Market expectations are anchored in its ability to deliver steady earnings growth and maintain dividend payouts. The stock typically trades at a premium to peers due to its scale and geographic diversification.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Duke Energy’s strategic advantages include its regulated monopoly positions, diversified energy mix, and proactive decarbonization strategy. The outlook remains positive, supported by regulatory tailwinds and long-term infrastructure investments. Challenges include rising interest rates and regulatory scrutiny, but the company’s disciplined execution mitigates these risks.

Sources

10-K filings, investor presentations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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