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Intrinsic Value of First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)

Previous Close$127.32
Intrinsic Value$133.03
Upside potential  +4%
Previous Close
$127.32
Intrinsic Value
$133.03
Potential        
+4%

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of 2024-12-31.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %26.725.624.623.622.721.821.020.219.418.718.017.316.716.115.615.114.614.113.613.212.812.412.011.711.3
Revenue, $5329669483401030912647154021862922384267263171737424439145125959532688097916790686103448117538133039150040168631188901210945234858
Variable operating expenses, $m10661339166820622529308037264477534563437485878310252119061376215833181372069023508266083000833726377804218946972
Fixed operating expenses, $m2138232025172731296332153488378541064456483452455691617567007269788785579285100741093011859128671396115148
Total operating expenses, $m32043659418547935492629572148262945110799123191402815943180812046223102260242924732793366824093845585506475615062120
Operating income, $m2125303641555516715491071141514122172742091825105298863531641451483475606464662742018474596357109102123045138254154795172739
EBITDA, $m254835714827635481891037712962159931952223602282903364439726465985432662974726128330895134108161122462138113155188173765193923
Interest expense (income), $m29115170236316410521651803978117914091671196723002674309235574071463952645950669975178405
Earnings before tax, $m2097292139855280683886971089413471164711994023926284773364539484460475339061570706458067491718103838117096131554147279164334
Tax expense, $m56678910761426184623482941363744475384646076899084106611243314415166241907421782247642803631616355203976544370
Net income, $m15312132290938544992634979539834120241455617466207882456128823336143897544946515715889266954758028548096035107513119964

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m1343016870210172597931869388144694656408673487992794308110663129173150021173398199500228529260690296195335258378102424949476031531582591843
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m1343016870210172597931869388144694656408673487992794308110663129173150021173398199500228529260690296195335258378102424949476031531582591843
Average production assets, $m63157933988312216149861825222076265253167037585443475203860742705458153893812107463122586139282157651177798199827223848249970278307
Working capital, $m1657208225943206393347905794696183129864116391365715942185142139924621282033217236554413754666352444587486560473041
Total debt, $m287542515910789410250130281628120066244422947335226417684917257511668627730388914101779115980131606148743167482187915210135234240
Total liabilities, $m5372674884071039112748155261877822563269393197137723442655166960008693597980091411104276118478134103151241169980190412212633236737
Total equity, $m805810122126101558719122232882816833845404094795656585663987750490012104039119700137117156414177717201155226861254969285619318949355106
Debt-to-equity ratio0.0890.2840.3370.3790.4130.4400.4630.4810.4970.5100.5210.5310.5390.5460.5530.5590.5640.5680.5730.5770.5800.5830.5860.5890.592
Adjusted equity ratio0.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.600

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m15312132290938544992634979539834120241455617466207882456128823336143897544946515715889266954758028548096035107513119964
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m4225356728381035127015471871224826843185375844105148597869107950910710389118041336015068169351897021184
Funds from operations, $m19532667358146926027761994991170514272172402065124546289713397139593458855289660678692817875889162100547112969126484141147
Change in working capital, $m3494255126127278571004116813501552177520192284257328853221358339694382482152875782630468567437
Cash from operations, $m1604224330704080530067628496105371292215688188762252826687313983670842663493145670964899739378387594766106665119628133710
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-422-535-672-838-1035-1270-1547-1871-2248-2684-3185-3758-4410-5148-5978-6910-7950-9107-10389-11804-13360-15068-16935-18970-21184
New CAPEX, $m-1331-1618-1950-2333-2770-3266-3824-4449-5145-5915-6762-7691-8704-9803-10993-12274-13650-15123-16696-18369-20146-22029-24021-26122-28337
Total CAPEX, $m-1753-2153-2623-3171-3805-4536-5371-6320-7393-8599-9948-11449-13114-14951-16971-19184-21601-24230-27084-30173-33507-37097-40955-45092-49521
Free cash flow, $m-1509044790914952226312542175529708989291107913573164471973623479277133247837815437645036857669657107453584190
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m23019742041206820391941175414601036458000000000000000
Retained Cash Flow, $m-546-2064-2488-2977-3534-4167-4879-5677-6565-7547-8629-9813-11106-12509-14026-15661-17417-19297-21303-23438-25706-28108-30649-33331-36157
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m465
Cash available for distribution, $m000000000030012652468393857107818102961318116512203262466229560350614120548033
Discount rate, %4.905.155.405.675.966.256.576.897.247.607.988.388.809.249.7010.1910.7011.2311.7912.3813.0013.6514.3315.0515.80
PV of cash for distribution, $m0000000000129482824114314241656183019401986196818941770161014241226
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %98867770656259575656565656565656565656565656565656