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Intrinsic Value of Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)

Previous Close$156.06
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$156.06

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of 2024-12-31.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %13.913.513.012.612.211.911.511.210.910.610.310.19.89.69.39.18.98.78.58.48.28.07.97.77.6
Revenue, $3986714523125112585758336463687231998066738971439949711100530121420113363781467466160788417580651918459208953022717642465664267175528905863122728336878236293743905159
Variable operating expenses, $m23601326776830266534089338265042813447755053110958902365151471880779113686874095186710407751135728123700213448841459673158167917112271848655199431921485892311854
Fixed operating expenses, $m3317435994390534237345975498835412358723637146913075006813828829995805103948112784122370132772144057156302169588184003199643216613235025
Total operating expenses, $m269187303762341718383266428625478017531673589832652737720644793813872518957039104767211447231248512135937214776561603730173798118808152032658219396223652022546879
Operating income, $m12948314854916954019256721774324518327500030731134223437988642038846386151042756021261334366994873015879410886193493377410097711090071117482012641721358280
EBITDA, $m144759165949189280214880242875273392306563342517381388423310468419516852568751624257683516746676813886885302961081104138411263761216226131110714111971516678
Interest expense (income), $m101899881076911627125671359414713159281724618670202072186223641255502759429781321163460737260400834308446270496505323357027
Earnings before tax, $m1284651385611587711809402051762315882602872913833249883612164001814419984867865346635857496401676980427595018246738936919666871043800112517012109391301253
Tax expense, $m34686374124286848854553976252970277786738774797528108049119340131432144359158152172845188471205065222662241296261006281826303796326954351338
Net income, $m93779101150115903132086149778169059190009212710237241263688292132322659355354390304427596467322509571554436602012652394705682761974821374883986949915

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m3627904116044652455240085881946581117340728164009054241001482110492312161041335394146317515998401745798190147320673052243754243129726304332841683306559233027303553695
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m3627904116044652455240085881946581117340728164009054241001482110492312161041335394146317515998401745798190147320673052243754243129726304332841683306559233027303553695
Average production assets, $m2244512546512878383241943639054071614541575050915601696195986835957523818261839052399897911080092117640612790031388169150419816274001758096189662420433372198604
Working capital, $m-6379-7237-8180-9213-10342-11571-12907-14354-15920-17608-19427-21382-23479-25726-28129-30695-33432-36348-39451-42748-46249-49964-53901-58070-62483
Total debt, $m2496992692242906813141863398613678273982124311434667535051765465525910256387416898537445198029028651729315051002085107710211567561241256133082014256751526061
Total liabilities, $m14511616464118609820960323527826324429362932656036217040059344196948644253415858527063993669831976058982692289750297251910521731136673122623713210921421478
Total equity, $m2176742469622791473144053529173948674404434898405432546008896629547296628012368779059599041047479114088412403831346252145877815782601705010183935519816382132217
Debt-to-equity ratio0.1171.0110.9640.9250.8900.8610.8350.8130.7940.7770.7620.7490.7380.7280.7190.7110.7040.6980.6920.6870.6820.6780.6750.6720.669
Adjusted equity ratio0.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.600

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m93779101150115903132086149778169059190009212710237241263688292132322659355354390304427596467322509571554436602012652394705682761974821374883986949915
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m15276173991974022313251312821031563352063915443424480315299258324640457017476728837289119499148107610116604126155136287147025158398
Funds from operations, $m10905511854913564315439917491019726922157224791527639630711234016337565141367845434949777054405059329964563070115976000482228688812995766110310111108313
Change in working capital, $m-778-858-943-1033-1129-1229-1336-1448-1565-1689-1819-1955-2097-2247-2403-2566-2737-2916-3102-3297-3501-3714-3937-4169-4413
Cash from operations, $m10983411940713658615543217603819849822290824936327796130880134198237760641577545659650017354661659603664854670426176330282578789184496159710351801112726
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-15276-17399-19740-22313-25131-28210-31563-35206-39154-43424-48031-52992-58324-64045-70174-76728-83728-91194-99148-107610-116604-126155-136287-147025-158398
New CAPEX, $m-27391-30200-33187-36356-39711-43256-46996-50935-55077-59430-63997-68786-73803-79055-84552-90302-96313-102598-109166-116029-123202-130696-138528-146713-155267
Total CAPEX, $m-42667-47599-52927-58669-64842-71466-78559-86141-94232-102853-112028-121777-132127-143101-154726-167029-180041-193792-208313-223639-239806-256851-274815-293738-313665
Free cash flow, $m67167718088365996763111196127033144349163222183729205947229954255828283649313495345447379587415995454754495948539662585981634992686783741442799060
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m0000000000000000000000000
Retained Cash Flow, $m5263-29288-32185-35258-38512-41950-45577-49397-53414-57635-62064-66709-71574-76668-81999-87575-93405-99500-105869-112526-119482-126750-134345-142283-150579
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m102147
Cash available for distribution, $m173524425205147461505726848508398772113826130315148312167890189120212075236827263448292012322590355255390079427136466500508242552437599159648482
Discount rate, %4.905.155.405.675.966.256.576.897.247.607.988.388.809.249.7010.1910.7011.2311.7912.3813.0013.6514.3315.0515.80
PV of cash for distribution, $m165418384614395849325544275912563284667716947071284721407199770848687236569061849573335229846916413643581930440253672071216554
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100