Fiscal year | | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 | 2049 |
INCOME STATEMENT |
Revenue growth rate, % | | 13.9 | 13.5 | 13.0 | 12.6 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 11.2 | 10.9 | 10.6 | 10.3 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 7.6 |
Revenue, $ | | 398671 | 452312 | 511258 | 575833 | 646368 | 723199 | 806673 | 897143 | 994971 | 1100530 | 1214201 | 1336378 | 1467466 | 1607884 | 1758065 | 1918459 | 2089530 | 2271764 | 2465664 | 2671755 | 2890586 | 3122728 | 3368782 | 3629374 | 3905159 |
Variable operating expenses, $m | | 236013 | 267768 | 302665 | 340893 | 382650 | 428134 | 477550 | 531109 | 589023 | 651514 | 718807 | 791136 | 868740 | 951867 | 1040775 | 1135728 | 1237002 | 1344884 | 1459673 | 1581679 | 1711227 | 1848655 | 1994319 | 2148589 | 2311854 |
Fixed operating expenses, $m | | 33174 | 35994 | 39053 | 42373 | 45975 | 49883 | 54123 | 58723 | 63714 | 69130 | 75006 | 81382 | 88299 | 95805 | 103948 | 112784 | 122370 | 132772 | 144057 | 156302 | 169588 | 184003 | 199643 | 216613 | 235025 |
Total operating expenses, $m | | 269187 | 303762 | 341718 | 383266 | 428625 | 478017 | 531673 | 589832 | 652737 | 720644 | 793813 | 872518 | 957039 | 1047672 | 1144723 | 1248512 | 1359372 | 1477656 | 1603730 | 1737981 | 1880815 | 2032658 | 2193962 | 2365202 | 2546879 |
Operating income, $m | | 129483 | 148549 | 169540 | 192567 | 217743 | 245183 | 275000 | 307311 | 342234 | 379886 | 420388 | 463861 | 510427 | 560212 | 613343 | 669948 | 730158 | 794108 | 861934 | 933774 | 1009771 | 1090071 | 1174820 | 1264172 | 1358280 |
EBITDA, $m | | 144759 | 165949 | 189280 | 214880 | 242875 | 273392 | 306563 | 342517 | 381388 | 423310 | 468419 | 516852 | 568751 | 624257 | 683516 | 746676 | 813886 | 885302 | 961081 | 1041384 | 1126376 | 1216226 | 1311107 | 1411197 | 1516678 |
Interest expense (income), $m | | 1018 | 9988 | 10769 | 11627 | 12567 | 13594 | 14713 | 15928 | 17246 | 18670 | 20207 | 21862 | 23641 | 25550 | 27594 | 29781 | 32116 | 34607 | 37260 | 40083 | 43084 | 46270 | 49650 | 53233 | 57027 |
Earnings before tax, $m | | 128465 | 138561 | 158771 | 180940 | 205176 | 231588 | 260287 | 291383 | 324988 | 361216 | 400181 | 441998 | 486786 | 534663 | 585749 | 640167 | 698042 | 759501 | 824673 | 893691 | 966687 | 1043800 | 1125170 | 1210939 | 1301253 |
Tax expense, $m | | 34686 | 37412 | 42868 | 48854 | 55397 | 62529 | 70277 | 78673 | 87747 | 97528 | 108049 | 119340 | 131432 | 144359 | 158152 | 172845 | 188471 | 205065 | 222662 | 241296 | 261006 | 281826 | 303796 | 326954 | 351338 |
Net income, $m | | 93779 | 101150 | 115903 | 132086 | 149778 | 169059 | 190009 | 212710 | 237241 | 263688 | 292132 | 322659 | 355354 | 390304 | 427596 | 467322 | 509571 | 554436 | 602012 | 652394 | 705682 | 761974 | 821374 | 883986 | 949915 |
BALANCE SHEET |
Cash and short-term investments, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total assets, $m | | 362790 | 411604 | 465245 | 524008 | 588194 | 658111 | 734072 | 816400 | 905424 | 1001482 | 1104923 | 1216104 | 1335394 | 1463175 | 1599840 | 1745798 | 1901473 | 2067305 | 2243754 | 2431297 | 2630433 | 2841683 | 3065592 | 3302730 | 3553695 |
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m | | 362790 | 411604 | 465245 | 524008 | 588194 | 658111 | 734072 | 816400 | 905424 | 1001482 | 1104923 | 1216104 | 1335394 | 1463175 | 1599840 | 1745798 | 1901473 | 2067305 | 2243754 | 2431297 | 2630433 | 2841683 | 3065592 | 3302730 | 3553695 |
Average production assets, $m | | 224451 | 254651 | 287838 | 324194 | 363905 | 407161 | 454157 | 505091 | 560169 | 619598 | 683595 | 752381 | 826183 | 905239 | 989791 | 1080092 | 1176406 | 1279003 | 1388169 | 1504198 | 1627400 | 1758096 | 1896624 | 2043337 | 2198604 |
Working capital, $m | | -6379 | -7237 | -8180 | -9213 | -10342 | -11571 | -12907 | -14354 | -15920 | -17608 | -19427 | -21382 | -23479 | -25726 | -28129 | -30695 | -33432 | -36348 | -39451 | -42748 | -46249 | -49964 | -53901 | -58070 | -62483 |
Total debt, $m | | 249699 | 269224 | 290681 | 314186 | 339861 | 367827 | 398212 | 431143 | 466753 | 505176 | 546552 | 591025 | 638741 | 689853 | 744519 | 802902 | 865172 | 931505 | 1002085 | 1077102 | 1156756 | 1241256 | 1330820 | 1425675 | 1526061 |
Total liabilities, $m | | 145116 | 164641 | 186098 | 209603 | 235278 | 263244 | 293629 | 326560 | 362170 | 400593 | 441969 | 486442 | 534158 | 585270 | 639936 | 698319 | 760589 | 826922 | 897502 | 972519 | 1052173 | 1136673 | 1226237 | 1321092 | 1421478 |
Total equity, $m | | 217674 | 246962 | 279147 | 314405 | 352917 | 394867 | 440443 | 489840 | 543254 | 600889 | 662954 | 729662 | 801236 | 877905 | 959904 | 1047479 | 1140884 | 1240383 | 1346252 | 1458778 | 1578260 | 1705010 | 1839355 | 1981638 | 2132217 |
Debt-to-equity ratio | | 0.117 | 1.011 | 0.964 | 0.925 | 0.890 | 0.861 | 0.835 | 0.813 | 0.794 | 0.777 | 0.762 | 0.749 | 0.738 | 0.728 | 0.719 | 0.711 | 0.704 | 0.698 | 0.692 | 0.687 | 0.682 | 0.678 | 0.675 | 0.672 | 0.669 |
Adjusted equity ratio | | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 |
CASH FLOW |
Net income, $m | | 93779 | 101150 | 115903 | 132086 | 149778 | 169059 | 190009 | 212710 | 237241 | 263688 | 292132 | 322659 | 355354 | 390304 | 427596 | 467322 | 509571 | 554436 | 602012 | 652394 | 705682 | 761974 | 821374 | 883986 | 949915 |
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m | | 15276 | 17399 | 19740 | 22313 | 25131 | 28210 | 31563 | 35206 | 39154 | 43424 | 48031 | 52992 | 58324 | 64045 | 70174 | 76728 | 83728 | 91194 | 99148 | 107610 | 116604 | 126155 | 136287 | 147025 | 158398 |
Funds from operations, $m | | 109055 | 118549 | 135643 | 154399 | 174910 | 197269 | 221572 | 247915 | 276396 | 307112 | 340163 | 375651 | 413678 | 454349 | 497770 | 544050 | 593299 | 645630 | 701159 | 760004 | 822286 | 888129 | 957661 | 1031011 | 1108313 |
Change in working capital, $m | | -778 | -858 | -943 | -1033 | -1129 | -1229 | -1336 | -1448 | -1565 | -1689 | -1819 | -1955 | -2097 | -2247 | -2403 | -2566 | -2737 | -2916 | -3102 | -3297 | -3501 | -3714 | -3937 | -4169 | -4413 |
Cash from operations, $m | | 109834 | 119407 | 136586 | 155432 | 176038 | 198498 | 222908 | 249363 | 277961 | 308801 | 341982 | 377606 | 415775 | 456596 | 500173 | 546616 | 596036 | 648546 | 704261 | 763302 | 825787 | 891844 | 961597 | 1035180 | 1112726 |
Maintenance CAPEX, $m | | -15276 | -17399 | -19740 | -22313 | -25131 | -28210 | -31563 | -35206 | -39154 | -43424 | -48031 | -52992 | -58324 | -64045 | -70174 | -76728 | -83728 | -91194 | -99148 | -107610 | -116604 | -126155 | -136287 | -147025 | -158398 |
New CAPEX, $m | | -27391 | -30200 | -33187 | -36356 | -39711 | -43256 | -46996 | -50935 | -55077 | -59430 | -63997 | -68786 | -73803 | -79055 | -84552 | -90302 | -96313 | -102598 | -109166 | -116029 | -123202 | -130696 | -138528 | -146713 | -155267 |
Total CAPEX, $m | | -42667 | -47599 | -52927 | -58669 | -64842 | -71466 | -78559 | -86141 | -94232 | -102853 | -112028 | -121777 | -132127 | -143101 | -154726 | -167029 | -180041 | -193792 | -208313 | -223639 | -239806 | -256851 | -274815 | -293738 | -313665 |
Free cash flow, $m | | 67167 | 71808 | 83659 | 96763 | 111196 | 127033 | 144349 | 163222 | 183729 | 205947 | 229954 | 255828 | 283649 | 313495 | 345447 | 379587 | 415995 | 454754 | 495948 | 539662 | 585981 | 634992 | 686783 | 741442 | 799060 |
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Retained Cash Flow, $m | | 5263 | -29288 | -32185 | -35258 | -38512 | -41950 | -45577 | -49397 | -53414 | -57635 | -62064 | -66709 | -71574 | -76668 | -81999 | -87575 | -93405 | -99500 | -105869 | -112526 | -119482 | -126750 | -134345 | -142283 | -150579 |
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m | | 102147 |
Cash available for distribution, $m | | 173524 | 42520 | 51474 | 61505 | 72684 | 85083 | 98772 | 113826 | 130315 | 148312 | 167890 | 189120 | 212075 | 236827 | 263448 | 292012 | 322590 | 355255 | 390079 | 427136 | 466500 | 508242 | 552437 | 599159 | 648482 |
Discount rate, % | | 4.90 | 5.15 | 5.40 | 5.67 | 5.96 | 6.25 | 6.57 | 6.89 | 7.24 | 7.60 | 7.98 | 8.38 | 8.80 | 9.24 | 9.70 | 10.19 | 10.70 | 11.23 | 11.79 | 12.38 | 13.00 | 13.65 | 14.33 | 15.05 | 15.80 |
PV of cash for distribution, $m | | 165418 | 38461 | 43958 | 49325 | 54427 | 59125 | 63284 | 66771 | 69470 | 71284 | 72140 | 71997 | 70848 | 68723 | 65690 | 61849 | 57333 | 52298 | 46916 | 41364 | 35819 | 30440 | 25367 | 20712 | 16554 |
Current shareholders' claim on cash, % | | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |