Fiscal year | | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 | 2049 |
INCOME STATEMENT |
Revenue growth rate, % | | -9.0 | -8.3 | -7.6 | -7.0 | -6.4 | -5.8 | -5.3 | -4.8 | -4.3 | -3.8 | -3.4 | -3.0 | -2.6 | -2.2 | -1.8 | -1.5 | -1.2 | -0.9 | -0.6 | -0.3 | -0.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
Revenue, $ | | 1388 | 1273 | 1176 | 1093 | 1023 | 964 | 913 | 869 | 832 | 800 | 773 | 750 | 731 | 715 | 702 | 691 | 683 | 677 | 674 | 672 | 672 | 673 | 676 | 681 | 687 |
Variable operating expenses, $m | | 663 | 608 | 562 | 523 | 489 | 461 | 436 | 415 | 398 | 382 | 369 | 358 | 349 | 342 | 335 | 330 | 327 | 324 | 322 | 321 | 321 | 322 | 323 | 326 | 328 |
Fixed operating expenses, $m | | 588 | 638 | 692 | 751 | 815 | 884 | 959 | 1041 | 1129 | 1225 | 1330 | 1443 | 1565 | 1698 | 1843 | 1999 | 2169 | 2354 | 2554 | 2771 | 3006 | 3262 | 3539 | 3840 | 4166 |
Total operating expenses, $m | | 1251 | 1246 | 1254 | 1274 | 1304 | 1345 | 1395 | 1456 | 1527 | 1607 | 1699 | 1801 | 1914 | 2040 | 2178 | 2329 | 2496 | 2678 | 2876 | 3092 | 3327 | 3584 | 3862 | 4166 | 4494 |
Operating income, $m | | 136 | 26 | -79 | -180 | -281 | -381 | -483 | -587 | -695 | -808 | -926 | -1051 | -1184 | -1325 | -1476 | -1638 | -1813 | -2000 | -2202 | -2420 | -2656 | -2910 | -3186 | -3484 | -3807 |
EBITDA, $m | | 183 | 69 | -40 | -144 | -247 | -350 | -453 | -559 | -669 | -782 | -902 | -1027 | -1161 | -1303 | -1454 | -1617 | -1791 | -1979 | -2181 | -2399 | -2635 | -2890 | -3165 | -3464 | -3787 |
Interest expense (income), $m | | 7 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
Earnings before tax, $m | | 130 | 1 | -103 | -204 | -303 | -403 | -504 | -608 | -715 | -827 | -945 | -1070 | -1202 | -1344 | -1495 | -1656 | -1831 | -2018 | -2220 | -2438 | -2673 | -2928 | -3204 | -3502 | -3825 |
Tax expense, $m | | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Net income, $m | | 95 | 1 | -103 | -204 | -303 | -403 | -504 | -608 | -715 | -827 | -945 | -1070 | -1202 | -1344 | -1495 | -1656 | -1831 | -2018 | -2220 | -2438 | -2673 | -2928 | -3204 | -3502 | -3825 |
BALANCE SHEET |
Cash and short-term investments, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total assets, $m | | 1860 | 1705 | 1575 | 1465 | 1371 | 1291 | 1223 | 1164 | 1115 | 1072 | 1036 | 1005 | 979 | 958 | 940 | 926 | 916 | 908 | 903 | 900 | 900 | 902 | 906 | 913 | 921 |
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m | | 1860 | 1705 | 1575 | 1465 | 1371 | 1291 | 1223 | 1164 | 1115 | 1072 | 1036 | 1005 | 979 | 958 | 940 | 926 | 916 | 908 | 903 | 900 | 900 | 902 | 906 | 913 | 921 |
Average production assets, $m | | 1278 | 1172 | 1083 | 1007 | 942 | 887 | 840 | 800 | 766 | 737 | 712 | 691 | 673 | 658 | 646 | 637 | 629 | 624 | 620 | 619 | 619 | 620 | 623 | 627 | 633 |
Working capital, $m | | 185 | 169 | 156 | 145 | 136 | 128 | 121 | 116 | 111 | 106 | 103 | 100 | 97 | 95 | 93 | 92 | 91 | 90 | 90 | 89 | 89 | 90 | 90 | 91 | 91 |
Total debt, $m | | 636 | 605 | 579 | 557 | 538 | 522 | 508 | 497 | 487 | 478 | 471 | 465 | 460 | 455 | 452 | 449 | 447 | 445 | 444 | 444 | 444 | 444 | 445 | 446 | 448 |
Total liabilities, $m | | 372 | 341 | 315 | 293 | 274 | 258 | 245 | 233 | 223 | 214 | 207 | 201 | 196 | 192 | 188 | 185 | 183 | 182 | 181 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 181 | 183 | 184 |
Total equity, $m | | 1488 | 1364 | 1260 | 1172 | 1097 | 1033 | 978 | 932 | 892 | 858 | 829 | 804 | 783 | 766 | 752 | 741 | 732 | 726 | 722 | 720 | 720 | 722 | 725 | 730 | 737 |
Debt-to-equity ratio | | 0.116 | 0.466 | 0.480 | 0.494 | 0.508 | 0.521 | 0.534 | 0.546 | 0.557 | 0.568 | 0.577 | 0.586 | 0.593 | 0.600 | 0.605 | 0.610 | 0.613 | 0.615 | 0.617 | 0.617 | 0.616 | 0.615 | 0.613 | 0.610 | 0.606 |
Adjusted equity ratio | | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 |
CASH FLOW |
Net income, $m | | 95 | 1 | -103 | -204 | -303 | -403 | -504 | -608 | -715 | -827 | -945 | -1070 | -1202 | -1344 | -1495 | -1656 | -1831 | -2018 | -2220 | -2438 | -2673 | -2928 | -3204 | -3502 | -3825 |
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m | | 47 | 43 | 39 | 36 | 34 | 31 | 30 | 28 | 27 | 26 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
Funds from operations, $m | | 141 | 43 | -64 | -168 | -270 | -371 | -474 | -580 | -688 | -802 | -921 | -1046 | -1179 | -1321 | -1473 | -1635 | -1809 | -1997 | -2199 | -2417 | -2653 | -2907 | -3183 | -3481 | -3804 |
Change in working capital, $m | | -18 | -15 | -13 | -11 | -9 | -8 | -7 | -6 | -5 | -4 | -4 | -3 | -3 | -2 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Cash from operations, $m | | 160 | 59 | -51 | -157 | -260 | -363 | -468 | -574 | -684 | -798 | -917 | -1043 | -1177 | -1319 | -1471 | -1634 | -1808 | -1996 | -2199 | -2417 | -2653 | -2908 | -3183 | -3482 | -3805 |
Maintenance CAPEX, $m | | -47 | -43 | -39 | -36 | -34 | -31 | -30 | -28 | -27 | -26 | -25 | -24 | -23 | -22 | -22 | -22 | -21 | -21 | -21 | -21 | -21 | -21 | -21 | -21 | -21 |
New CAPEX, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -3 | -4 | -6 |
Total CAPEX, $m | | -47 | -43 | -39 | -36 | -34 | -31 | -30 | -28 | -27 | -26 | -25 | -24 | -23 | -22 | -22 | -22 | -21 | -21 | -21 | -21 | -21 | -22 | -24 | -25 | -27 |
Free cash flow, $m | | 113 | 16 | -90 | -193 | -294 | -395 | -497 | -602 | -710 | -823 | -942 | -1067 | -1200 | -1341 | -1493 | -1655 | -1829 | -2017 | -2219 | -2438 | -2673 | -2930 | -3207 | -3507 | -3832 |
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m | | 0 | 0 | 7 | 122 | 234 | 344 | 453 | 564 | 678 | 796 | 918 | 1047 | 1183 | 1328 | 1482 | 1646 | 1823 | 2012 | 2216 | 2436 | 2673 | 2931 | 3210 | 3512 | 3838 |
Retained Cash Flow, $m | | 307 | 123 | 104 | 88 | 75 | 64 | 55 | 47 | 40 | 34 | 29 | 25 | 21 | 17 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -2 | -3 | -5 | -7 |
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m | | 296 |
Cash available for distribution, $m | | 654 | 115 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Discount rate, % | | 4.90 | 5.15 | 5.40 | 5.67 | 5.96 | 6.25 | 6.57 | 6.89 | 7.24 | 7.60 | 7.98 | 8.38 | 8.80 | 9.24 | 9.70 | 10.19 | 10.70 | 11.23 | 11.79 | 12.38 | 13.00 | 13.65 | 14.33 | 15.05 | 15.80 |
PV of cash for distribution, $m | | 624 | 104 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Current shareholders' claim on cash, % | | 100 | 100 | 100 | 92 | 79 | 63 | 46 | 31 | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |