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Intrinsic Value of Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC)

Previous Close$48.59
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$48.59

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of 2024-12-31.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %-9.0-8.3-7.6-7.0-6.4-5.8-5.3-4.8-4.3-3.8-3.4-3.0-2.6-2.2-1.8-1.5-1.2-0.9-0.6-0.3-0.00.20.50.70.9
Revenue, $13881273117610931023964913869832800773750731715702691683677674672672673676681687
Variable operating expenses, $m663608562523489461436415398382369358349342335330327324322321321322323326328
Fixed operating expenses, $m588638692751815884959104111291225133014431565169818431999216923542554277130063262353938404166
Total operating expenses, $m1251124612541274130413451395145615271607169918011914204021782329249626782876309233273584386241664494
Operating income, $m13626-79-180-281-381-483-587-695-808-926-1051-1184-1325-1476-1638-1813-2000-2202-2420-2656-2910-3186-3484-3807
EBITDA, $m18369-40-144-247-350-453-559-669-782-902-1027-1161-1303-1454-1617-1791-1979-2181-2399-2635-2890-3165-3464-3787
Interest expense (income), $m7252423222221202019191919181818181818181818181818
Earnings before tax, $m1301-103-204-303-403-504-608-715-827-945-1070-1202-1344-1495-1656-1831-2018-2220-2438-2673-2928-3204-3502-3825
Tax expense, $m35000000000000000000000000
Net income, $m951-103-204-303-403-504-608-715-827-945-1070-1202-1344-1495-1656-1831-2018-2220-2438-2673-2928-3204-3502-3825

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m186017051575146513711291122311641115107210361005979958940926916908903900900902906913921
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m186017051575146513711291122311641115107210361005979958940926916908903900900902906913921
Average production assets, $m1278117210831007942887840800766737712691673658646637629624620619619620623627633
Working capital, $m18516915614513612812111611110610310097959392919090898990909191
Total debt, $m636605579557538522508497487478471465460455452449447445444444444444445446448
Total liabilities, $m372341315293274258245233223214207201196192188185183182181180180180181183184
Total equity, $m148813641260117210971033978932892858829804783766752741732726722720720722725730737
Debt-to-equity ratio0.1160.4660.4800.4940.5080.5210.5340.5460.5570.5680.5770.5860.5930.6000.6050.6100.6130.6150.6170.6170.6160.6150.6130.6100.606
Adjusted equity ratio0.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.800

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m951-103-204-303-403-504-608-715-827-945-1070-1202-1344-1495-1656-1831-2018-2220-2438-2673-2928-3204-3502-3825
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m47433936343130282726252423222222212121212121212121
Funds from operations, $m14143-64-168-270-371-474-580-688-802-921-1046-1179-1321-1473-1635-1809-1997-2199-2417-2653-2907-3183-3481-3804
Change in working capital, $m-18-15-13-11-9-8-7-6-5-4-4-3-3-2-2-1-1-1-1000011
Cash from operations, $m16059-51-157-260-363-468-574-684-798-917-1043-1177-1319-1471-1634-1808-1996-2199-2417-2653-2908-3183-3482-3805
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-47-43-39-36-34-31-30-28-27-26-25-24-23-22-22-22-21-21-21-21-21-21-21-21-21
New CAPEX, $m000000000000000000000-1-3-4-6
Total CAPEX, $m-47-43-39-36-34-31-30-28-27-26-25-24-23-22-22-22-21-21-21-21-21-22-24-25-27
Free cash flow, $m11316-90-193-294-395-497-602-710-823-942-1067-1200-1341-1493-1655-1829-2017-2219-2438-2673-2930-3207-3507-3832
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m00712223434445356467879691810471183132814821646182320122216243626732931321035123838
Retained Cash Flow, $m3071231048875645547403429252117141196420-2-3-5-7
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m296
Cash available for distribution, $m65411500000000000000000000000
Discount rate, %4.905.155.405.675.966.256.576.897.247.607.988.388.809.249.7010.1910.7011.2311.7912.3813.0013.6514.3315.0515.80
PV of cash for distribution, $m62410400000000000000000000000
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %10010010092796346312011631100000000000