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Intrinsic Value of Ingredion Incorporated (INGR)

Previous Close$134.99
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$134.99

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of 2024-12-31.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %-8.9-8.2-7.5-6.9-6.3-5.8-5.2-4.7-4.2-3.8-3.3-2.9-2.5-2.1-1.8-1.4-1.1-0.8-0.5-0.20.00.30.50.70.9
Revenue, $6769621357455347500947214475426440843930380036893597352034573407336933423325331633173326334333673399
Variable operating expenses, $m5713524448484513422839843777359934473317320731143036297129182876284428212806279928002807282128422868
Fixed operating expenses, $m2983233513814134484865275726216747317938609341013109911921294140415231653179319452111
Total operating expenses, $m6011556751994894464144324263412640193938388138453829383138523889394340134100420343234460461447874979
Operating income, $m75864654545436928821213865-8-81-155-232-311-394-481-573-671-775-886-1006-1134-1272-1420-1581
EBITDA, $m97284172461952243334826618811032-46-126-208-293-382-475-574-679-791-910-1038-1176-1324-1484
Interest expense (income), $m7371584840322621161296310-2-3-4-4-5-5-5-4-4-4
Earnings before tax, $m68557548740532925618611749-20-90-161-235-313-394-480-571-668-771-882-1001-1129-1267-1416-1577
Tax expense, $m18515513110989695032130000000000000000
Net income, $m5004203552962401871368636-20-90-161-235-313-394-480-571-668-771-882-1001-1129-1267-1416-1577

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m7378677362625828546051464877464844514284414240213920383737683714367336433624361536163625364336703704
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m7378677362625828546051464877464844514284414240213920383737683714367336433624361536163625364336703704
Average production assets, $m2532232421482000187317661673159515271470142113801345131612931274126012501243124012411244125012591271
Working capital, $m11371044965898842793752716686660638620604591581572566561559557557559562566571
Total debt, $m1764146112069898056485143993012171468635-7-41-68-89-104-113-118-117-112-103-90-73
Total liabilities, $m3689338631312914273025732439232422262142207120111960191818841857183618211812180718081813182218351852
Total equity, $m3689338631312914273025732439232422262142207120111960191818841857183618211812180718081813182218351852
Debt-to-equity ratio0.4960.5210.4670.4140.3620.3130.2660.2210.1790.1400.1050.0730.0440.018-0.004-0.022-0.037-0.049-0.057-0.063-0.065-0.065-0.062-0.056-0.049
Adjusted equity ratio0.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.500

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m5004203552962401871368636-20-90-161-235-313-394-480-571-668-771-882-1001-1129-1267-1416-1577
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m21419517916515414413612912311711310910610310199989796969595969697
Funds from operations, $m7146155344613943312722141589824-52-129-209-293-380-473-571-675-786-906-1034-1171-1320-1480
Change in working capital, $m-111-93-79-67-57-48-41-35-30-26-22-19-16-13-11-8-6-5-3-101345
Cash from operations, $m82570861352845138031325018912445-33-114-196-282-372-466-566-672-785-906-1035-1174-1324-1485
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-214-195-179-165-154-144-136-129-123-117-113-109-106-103-101-99-98-97-96-96-95-95-96-96-97
New CAPEX, $m000000000000000000000-3-6-9-12
Total CAPEX, $m-214-195-179-165-154-144-136-129-123-117-113-109-106-103-101-99-98-97-96-96-96-99-102-105-109
Free cash flow, $m611513434363297235177121666-68-143-220-300-383-471-564-663-768-881-1001-1134-1276-1429-1594
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m0000000000119517926635645054865176187710021139128514431611
Retained Cash Flow, $m17330325521718415713411598847160504234272115940-5-9-13-17
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m-58
Cash available for distribution, $m69175663953644436128521314473000000000000000
Discount rate, %4.905.155.405.675.966.256.576.897.247.607.988.388.809.249.7010.1910.7011.2311.7912.3813.0013.6514.3315.0515.80
PV of cash for distribution, $m6596835454303332511821257735000000000000000
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %1001001001001001001001001001001009894898375665849403326201511