Fiscal year | | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 | 2049 |
INCOME STATEMENT |
Revenue growth rate, % | | -8.9 | -8.2 | -7.5 | -6.9 | -6.3 | -5.8 | -5.2 | -4.7 | -4.2 | -3.8 | -3.3 | -2.9 | -2.5 | -2.1 | -1.8 | -1.4 | -1.1 | -0.8 | -0.5 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
Revenue, $ | | 6769 | 6213 | 5745 | 5347 | 5009 | 4721 | 4475 | 4264 | 4084 | 3930 | 3800 | 3689 | 3597 | 3520 | 3457 | 3407 | 3369 | 3342 | 3325 | 3316 | 3317 | 3326 | 3343 | 3367 | 3399 |
Variable operating expenses, $m | | 5713 | 5244 | 4848 | 4513 | 4228 | 3984 | 3777 | 3599 | 3447 | 3317 | 3207 | 3114 | 3036 | 2971 | 2918 | 2876 | 2844 | 2821 | 2806 | 2799 | 2800 | 2807 | 2821 | 2842 | 2868 |
Fixed operating expenses, $m | | 298 | 323 | 351 | 381 | 413 | 448 | 486 | 527 | 572 | 621 | 674 | 731 | 793 | 860 | 934 | 1013 | 1099 | 1192 | 1294 | 1404 | 1523 | 1653 | 1793 | 1945 | 2111 |
Total operating expenses, $m | | 6011 | 5567 | 5199 | 4894 | 4641 | 4432 | 4263 | 4126 | 4019 | 3938 | 3881 | 3845 | 3829 | 3831 | 3852 | 3889 | 3943 | 4013 | 4100 | 4203 | 4323 | 4460 | 4614 | 4787 | 4979 |
Operating income, $m | | 758 | 646 | 545 | 454 | 369 | 288 | 212 | 138 | 65 | -8 | -81 | -155 | -232 | -311 | -394 | -481 | -573 | -671 | -775 | -886 | -1006 | -1134 | -1272 | -1420 | -1581 |
EBITDA, $m | | 972 | 841 | 724 | 619 | 522 | 433 | 348 | 266 | 188 | 110 | 32 | -46 | -126 | -208 | -293 | -382 | -475 | -574 | -679 | -791 | -910 | -1038 | -1176 | -1324 | -1484 |
Interest expense (income), $m | | 73 | 71 | 58 | 48 | 40 | 32 | 26 | 21 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -3 | -4 | -4 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -4 | -4 | -4 |
Earnings before tax, $m | | 685 | 575 | 487 | 405 | 329 | 256 | 186 | 117 | 49 | -20 | -90 | -161 | -235 | -313 | -394 | -480 | -571 | -668 | -771 | -882 | -1001 | -1129 | -1267 | -1416 | -1577 |
Tax expense, $m | | 185 | 155 | 131 | 109 | 89 | 69 | 50 | 32 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Net income, $m | | 500 | 420 | 355 | 296 | 240 | 187 | 136 | 86 | 36 | -20 | -90 | -161 | -235 | -313 | -394 | -480 | -571 | -668 | -771 | -882 | -1001 | -1129 | -1267 | -1416 | -1577 |
BALANCE SHEET |
Cash and short-term investments, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total assets, $m | | 7378 | 6773 | 6262 | 5828 | 5460 | 5146 | 4877 | 4648 | 4451 | 4284 | 4142 | 4021 | 3920 | 3837 | 3768 | 3714 | 3673 | 3643 | 3624 | 3615 | 3616 | 3625 | 3643 | 3670 | 3704 |
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m | | 7378 | 6773 | 6262 | 5828 | 5460 | 5146 | 4877 | 4648 | 4451 | 4284 | 4142 | 4021 | 3920 | 3837 | 3768 | 3714 | 3673 | 3643 | 3624 | 3615 | 3616 | 3625 | 3643 | 3670 | 3704 |
Average production assets, $m | | 2532 | 2324 | 2148 | 2000 | 1873 | 1766 | 1673 | 1595 | 1527 | 1470 | 1421 | 1380 | 1345 | 1316 | 1293 | 1274 | 1260 | 1250 | 1243 | 1240 | 1241 | 1244 | 1250 | 1259 | 1271 |
Working capital, $m | | 1137 | 1044 | 965 | 898 | 842 | 793 | 752 | 716 | 686 | 660 | 638 | 620 | 604 | 591 | 581 | 572 | 566 | 561 | 559 | 557 | 557 | 559 | 562 | 566 | 571 |
Total debt, $m | | 1764 | 1461 | 1206 | 989 | 805 | 648 | 514 | 399 | 301 | 217 | 146 | 86 | 35 | -7 | -41 | -68 | -89 | -104 | -113 | -118 | -117 | -112 | -103 | -90 | -73 |
Total liabilities, $m | | 3689 | 3386 | 3131 | 2914 | 2730 | 2573 | 2439 | 2324 | 2226 | 2142 | 2071 | 2011 | 1960 | 1918 | 1884 | 1857 | 1836 | 1821 | 1812 | 1807 | 1808 | 1813 | 1822 | 1835 | 1852 |
Total equity, $m | | 3689 | 3386 | 3131 | 2914 | 2730 | 2573 | 2439 | 2324 | 2226 | 2142 | 2071 | 2011 | 1960 | 1918 | 1884 | 1857 | 1836 | 1821 | 1812 | 1807 | 1808 | 1813 | 1822 | 1835 | 1852 |
Debt-to-equity ratio | | 0.496 | 0.521 | 0.467 | 0.414 | 0.362 | 0.313 | 0.266 | 0.221 | 0.179 | 0.140 | 0.105 | 0.073 | 0.044 | 0.018 | -0.004 | -0.022 | -0.037 | -0.049 | -0.057 | -0.063 | -0.065 | -0.065 | -0.062 | -0.056 | -0.049 |
Adjusted equity ratio | | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 |
CASH FLOW |
Net income, $m | | 500 | 420 | 355 | 296 | 240 | 187 | 136 | 86 | 36 | -20 | -90 | -161 | -235 | -313 | -394 | -480 | -571 | -668 | -771 | -882 | -1001 | -1129 | -1267 | -1416 | -1577 |
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m | | 214 | 195 | 179 | 165 | 154 | 144 | 136 | 129 | 123 | 117 | 113 | 109 | 106 | 103 | 101 | 99 | 98 | 97 | 96 | 96 | 95 | 95 | 96 | 96 | 97 |
Funds from operations, $m | | 714 | 615 | 534 | 461 | 394 | 331 | 272 | 214 | 158 | 98 | 24 | -52 | -129 | -209 | -293 | -380 | -473 | -571 | -675 | -786 | -906 | -1034 | -1171 | -1320 | -1480 |
Change in working capital, $m | | -111 | -93 | -79 | -67 | -57 | -48 | -41 | -35 | -30 | -26 | -22 | -19 | -16 | -13 | -11 | -8 | -6 | -5 | -3 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Cash from operations, $m | | 825 | 708 | 613 | 528 | 451 | 380 | 313 | 250 | 189 | 124 | 45 | -33 | -114 | -196 | -282 | -372 | -466 | -566 | -672 | -785 | -906 | -1035 | -1174 | -1324 | -1485 |
Maintenance CAPEX, $m | | -214 | -195 | -179 | -165 | -154 | -144 | -136 | -129 | -123 | -117 | -113 | -109 | -106 | -103 | -101 | -99 | -98 | -97 | -96 | -96 | -95 | -95 | -96 | -96 | -97 |
New CAPEX, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | -6 | -9 | -12 |
Total CAPEX, $m | | -214 | -195 | -179 | -165 | -154 | -144 | -136 | -129 | -123 | -117 | -113 | -109 | -106 | -103 | -101 | -99 | -98 | -97 | -96 | -96 | -96 | -99 | -102 | -105 | -109 |
Free cash flow, $m | | 611 | 513 | 434 | 363 | 297 | 235 | 177 | 121 | 66 | 6 | -68 | -143 | -220 | -300 | -383 | -471 | -564 | -663 | -768 | -881 | -1001 | -1134 | -1276 | -1429 | -1594 |
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 95 | 179 | 266 | 356 | 450 | 548 | 651 | 761 | 877 | 1002 | 1139 | 1285 | 1443 | 1611 |
Retained Cash Flow, $m | | 173 | 303 | 255 | 217 | 184 | 157 | 134 | 115 | 98 | 84 | 71 | 60 | 50 | 42 | 34 | 27 | 21 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 0 | -5 | -9 | -13 | -17 |
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m | | -58 |
Cash available for distribution, $m | | 691 | 756 | 639 | 536 | 444 | 361 | 285 | 213 | 144 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Discount rate, % | | 4.90 | 5.15 | 5.40 | 5.67 | 5.96 | 6.25 | 6.57 | 6.89 | 7.24 | 7.60 | 7.98 | 8.38 | 8.80 | 9.24 | 9.70 | 10.19 | 10.70 | 11.23 | 11.79 | 12.38 | 13.00 | 13.65 | 14.33 | 15.05 | 15.80 |
PV of cash for distribution, $m | | 659 | 683 | 545 | 430 | 333 | 251 | 182 | 125 | 77 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Current shareholders' claim on cash, % | | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 98 | 94 | 89 | 83 | 75 | 66 | 58 | 49 | 40 | 33 | 26 | 20 | 15 | 11 |