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Intrinsic Value of CarMax, Inc. (KMX)

Previous Close$70.61
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$70.61

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2025 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

CarMax, Inc. is the largest retailer of used vehicles in the U.S., operating a vertically integrated business model that spans sourcing, reconditioning, and retailing. The company differentiates itself through a no-haggle pricing strategy, a nationwide inventory network, and a customer-centric approach that includes financing options through CarMax Auto Finance. Its omnichannel platform combines physical stores with digital tools, enabling seamless online-to-offline transactions. CarMax holds a dominant position in the highly fragmented used car market, leveraging scale efficiencies and brand recognition to maintain competitive pricing and inventory breadth. The company’s focus on transparency and quality assurance strengthens its reputation among consumers, while its data-driven pricing and inventory management optimize turnover and margins. Despite competition from dealerships and online disruptors, CarMax’s integrated model and nationwide footprint provide resilience against market volatility.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

CarMax reported revenue of $26.4 billion for FY 2025, with net income of $500.6 million, reflecting a net margin of approximately 1.9%. Diluted EPS stood at $3.21, indicating modest profitability in a competitive industry. Operating cash flow was $624.4 million, while capital expenditures totaled $467.9 million, suggesting disciplined reinvestment in store expansion and digital capabilities. The company’s asset-light model and inventory turnover efficiency help mitigate margin pressures inherent in the used vehicle sector.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

CarMax’s earnings power is tempered by thin margins, typical of the used car retail industry, but its scale and financing arm (CAF) contribute to steady cash generation. The company’s capital efficiency is underscored by its ability to manage inventory turnover and leverage its omnichannel platform to optimize sales velocity. However, high reliance on debt financing ($19.2 billion total debt) introduces interest expense drag on profitability.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

CarMax’s balance sheet shows significant leverage, with total debt of $19.2 billion and no reported cash equivalents, raising liquidity concerns. The absence of dividends suggests a focus on debt management and reinvestment. While the company’s asset-backed financing model aligns with inventory needs, its financial health depends on sustained used vehicle demand and stable credit markets to service obligations.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

CarMax’s growth is tied to store expansion and digital adoption, though macroeconomic headwinds like interest rates and consumer spending may constrain near-term performance. The company does not pay dividends, prioritizing debt reduction and operational investments. Long-term trends favor used vehicle demand due to affordability, but competitive pressures and cyclicality remain risks.

Valuation And Market Expectations

The market likely prices CarMax based on its market leadership and cyclical recovery potential, though high debt and margin volatility warrant caution. Valuation multiples should reflect both growth opportunities in omnichannel retail and risks from economic sensitivity. Investors may weigh its scale advantages against sector-wide challenges like inventory sourcing costs.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

CarMax’s integrated model, brand strength, and omnichannel capabilities position it to capitalize on secular shifts toward used vehicles. However, execution risks include managing debt, competing with digital disruptors, and navigating supply chain disruptions. The outlook hinges on balancing growth investments with profitability improvements in a rate-sensitive environment.

Sources

Company filings (10-K), Bloomberg

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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