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Intrinsic Value of The Kroger Co. (KR)

Previous Close$68.90
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$68.90

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of 2024-02-03.

Quarterly Revenue – actual and YoY change

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %1.21.41.61.71.92.12.22.32.52.62.72.82.93.03.13.23.33.43.53.63.63.73.83.83.9
Revenue, $151839153950156368159092162122165461169112173080177371181992186951192257197922203958210376217191224418232073240174248739257787267340277421288052299258
Variable operating expenses, $m136656138555140731143183145910148915152201155772159634163793168256173032178130183562189338195472201976208866216157223865232009240606249679259246269332
Fixed operating expenses, $m12920140181521016503179051942721079228702481426924292123169534389373124048443925476595171056105608746604871662777538436291533
Total operating expenses, $m149576152573155941159686163815168342173280178642184448190717197468204727212519220874229822239397249635260576272262284739298057312268327432343608360865
Operating income, $m22641377427-593-1693-2881-4167-5562-7077-8724-10517-12469-14597-16916-19446-22206-25217-28502-32087-36000-40269-44928-50011-55557-61607
EBITDA, $m601551734276331622841172-31-1335-2750-4290-5967-7796-9791-11968-14347-16946-19787-22892-26286-29996-34051-38483-43328-48622-54406
Interest expense (income), $m7708869099359659981034107411171164121412681326138714531523159716761759184719402039214322522368
Earnings before tax, $m1494491-482-1529-2658-3879-5202-6636-8194-9888-11731-13737-15923-18304-20899-23729-26814-30178-33846-37847-42210-46967-52154-57810-63975
Tax expense, $m40313300000000000000000000000
Net income, $m1091358-482-1529-2658-3879-5202-6636-8194-9888-11731-13737-15923-18304-20899-23729-26814-30178-33846-37847-42210-46967-52154-57810-63975

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m516255234353165540915512256257574985884760306618776356365367672946934671528738457630278905816598457187648908969432397938101748
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m516255234353165540915512256257574985884760306618776356365367672946934671528738457630278905816598457187648908969432397938101748
Average production assets, $m34923354093596536591372883805638896398084079541858429994421945522469104838649954516165337755240572105929161488638076625268829
Working capital, $m3037307931273182324233093382346235473640373938453958407942084344448846414803497551565347554857615985
Total debt, $m22149227232338124122249462585426848279272909430351317003314334684363253807139925418914397346176485065096753566563075919962247
Total liabilities, $m41300418744253243273440974500545999470784824549502508515229453835554765722259076610426312465327676577011872717754587835081398
Total equity, $m10325104691063310818110241125111500117691206112375127131307313459138691430614769152601578116332169141753018179188651958820350
Debt-to-equity ratio1.8642.1162.1372.1612.1882.2172.2482.2812.3152.3512.3872.4252.4632.5012.5392.5782.6162.6552.6922.7302.7672.8042.8392.8752.909
Adjusted equity ratio0.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.200

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m1091358-482-1529-2658-3879-5202-6636-8194-9888-11731-13737-15923-18304-20899-23729-26814-30178-33846-37847-42210-46967-52154-57810-63975
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m3751379638493909397740534137422843274434455046744806494850995259543056105802600462186445668469367201
Funds from operations, $m48424154336723801319174-1065-2408-3867-5454-7181-9064-11116-13356-15800-18469-21384-24567-28045-31843-35991-40522-45470-50874-56774
Change in working capital, $m3642485461677379869299106113121128136145153162171181191202213224
Cash from operations, $m48064112331823261259107-1138-2488-3953-5546-7280-9170-11230-13476-15929-18606-21528-24720-28207-32014-36172-40713-45672-51087-56998
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-3751-3796-3849-3909-3977-4053-4137-4228-4327-4434-4550-4674-4806-4948-5099-5259-5430-5610-5802-6004-6218-6445-6684-6936-7201
New CAPEX, $m-414-485-556-626-697-768-840-913-987-1063-1141-1221-1303-1388-1476-1567-1662-1761-1863-1970-2081-2197-2318-2445-2577
Total CAPEX, $m-4165-4281-4405-4536-4674-4821-4976-5140-5314-5497-5690-5894-6109-6336-6575-6827-7092-7371-7665-7974-8300-8642-9002-9381-9779
Free cash flow, $m640-169-1086-2210-3416-4714-6114-7628-9267-11043-12971-15064-17339-19813-22504-25432-28620-32092-35872-39988-44472-49355-54674-60467-66777
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m0313125123953622494163637898955911358133081542517724202232294025896291123261236422405714508750005553596119067539
Retained Cash Flow, $m1044-144-164-185-206-227-248-270-292-314-337-361-385-410-436-463-491-521-551-582-615-650-685-723-762
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m246
Cash available for distribution, $m1722000000000000000000000000
Discount rate, %5.405.675.956.256.566.897.247.607.988.388.809.249.7010.1810.6911.2311.7912.3813.0013.6514.3315.0415.8016.5917.42
PV of cash for distribution, $m1633000000000000000000000000
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %10099979285776859494032251914107532111000