Fiscal year | | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 | 2049 |
INCOME STATEMENT |
Revenue growth rate, % | | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.9 |
Revenue, $ | | 151839 | 153950 | 156368 | 159092 | 162122 | 165461 | 169112 | 173080 | 177371 | 181992 | 186951 | 192257 | 197922 | 203958 | 210376 | 217191 | 224418 | 232073 | 240174 | 248739 | 257787 | 267340 | 277421 | 288052 | 299258 |
Variable operating expenses, $m | | 136656 | 138555 | 140731 | 143183 | 145910 | 148915 | 152201 | 155772 | 159634 | 163793 | 168256 | 173032 | 178130 | 183562 | 189338 | 195472 | 201976 | 208866 | 216157 | 223865 | 232009 | 240606 | 249679 | 259246 | 269332 |
Fixed operating expenses, $m | | 12920 | 14018 | 15210 | 16503 | 17905 | 19427 | 21079 | 22870 | 24814 | 26924 | 29212 | 31695 | 34389 | 37312 | 40484 | 43925 | 47659 | 51710 | 56105 | 60874 | 66048 | 71662 | 77753 | 84362 | 91533 |
Total operating expenses, $m | | 149576 | 152573 | 155941 | 159686 | 163815 | 168342 | 173280 | 178642 | 184448 | 190717 | 197468 | 204727 | 212519 | 220874 | 229822 | 239397 | 249635 | 260576 | 272262 | 284739 | 298057 | 312268 | 327432 | 343608 | 360865 |
Operating income, $m | | 2264 | 1377 | 427 | -593 | -1693 | -2881 | -4167 | -5562 | -7077 | -8724 | -10517 | -12469 | -14597 | -16916 | -19446 | -22206 | -25217 | -28502 | -32087 | -36000 | -40269 | -44928 | -50011 | -55557 | -61607 |
EBITDA, $m | | 6015 | 5173 | 4276 | 3316 | 2284 | 1172 | -31 | -1335 | -2750 | -4290 | -5967 | -7796 | -9791 | -11968 | -14347 | -16946 | -19787 | -22892 | -26286 | -29996 | -34051 | -38483 | -43328 | -48622 | -54406 |
Interest expense (income), $m | | 770 | 886 | 909 | 935 | 965 | 998 | 1034 | 1074 | 1117 | 1164 | 1214 | 1268 | 1326 | 1387 | 1453 | 1523 | 1597 | 1676 | 1759 | 1847 | 1940 | 2039 | 2143 | 2252 | 2368 |
Earnings before tax, $m | | 1494 | 491 | -482 | -1529 | -2658 | -3879 | -5202 | -6636 | -8194 | -9888 | -11731 | -13737 | -15923 | -18304 | -20899 | -23729 | -26814 | -30178 | -33846 | -37847 | -42210 | -46967 | -52154 | -57810 | -63975 |
Tax expense, $m | | 403 | 133 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Net income, $m | | 1091 | 358 | -482 | -1529 | -2658 | -3879 | -5202 | -6636 | -8194 | -9888 | -11731 | -13737 | -15923 | -18304 | -20899 | -23729 | -26814 | -30178 | -33846 | -37847 | -42210 | -46967 | -52154 | -57810 | -63975 |
BALANCE SHEET |
Cash and short-term investments, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total assets, $m | | 51625 | 52343 | 53165 | 54091 | 55122 | 56257 | 57498 | 58847 | 60306 | 61877 | 63563 | 65367 | 67294 | 69346 | 71528 | 73845 | 76302 | 78905 | 81659 | 84571 | 87648 | 90896 | 94323 | 97938 | 101748 |
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m | | 51625 | 52343 | 53165 | 54091 | 55122 | 56257 | 57498 | 58847 | 60306 | 61877 | 63563 | 65367 | 67294 | 69346 | 71528 | 73845 | 76302 | 78905 | 81659 | 84571 | 87648 | 90896 | 94323 | 97938 | 101748 |
Average production assets, $m | | 34923 | 35409 | 35965 | 36591 | 37288 | 38056 | 38896 | 39808 | 40795 | 41858 | 42999 | 44219 | 45522 | 46910 | 48386 | 49954 | 51616 | 53377 | 55240 | 57210 | 59291 | 61488 | 63807 | 66252 | 68829 |
Working capital, $m | | 3037 | 3079 | 3127 | 3182 | 3242 | 3309 | 3382 | 3462 | 3547 | 3640 | 3739 | 3845 | 3958 | 4079 | 4208 | 4344 | 4488 | 4641 | 4803 | 4975 | 5156 | 5347 | 5548 | 5761 | 5985 |
Total debt, $m | | 22149 | 22723 | 23381 | 24122 | 24946 | 25854 | 26848 | 27927 | 29094 | 30351 | 31700 | 33143 | 34684 | 36325 | 38071 | 39925 | 41891 | 43973 | 46176 | 48506 | 50967 | 53566 | 56307 | 59199 | 62247 |
Total liabilities, $m | | 41300 | 41874 | 42532 | 43273 | 44097 | 45005 | 45999 | 47078 | 48245 | 49502 | 50851 | 52294 | 53835 | 55476 | 57222 | 59076 | 61042 | 63124 | 65327 | 67657 | 70118 | 72717 | 75458 | 78350 | 81398 |
Total equity, $m | | 10325 | 10469 | 10633 | 10818 | 11024 | 11251 | 11500 | 11769 | 12061 | 12375 | 12713 | 13073 | 13459 | 13869 | 14306 | 14769 | 15260 | 15781 | 16332 | 16914 | 17530 | 18179 | 18865 | 19588 | 20350 |
Debt-to-equity ratio | | 1.864 | 2.116 | 2.137 | 2.161 | 2.188 | 2.217 | 2.248 | 2.281 | 2.315 | 2.351 | 2.387 | 2.425 | 2.463 | 2.501 | 2.539 | 2.578 | 2.616 | 2.655 | 2.692 | 2.730 | 2.767 | 2.804 | 2.839 | 2.875 | 2.909 |
Adjusted equity ratio | | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 |
CASH FLOW |
Net income, $m | | 1091 | 358 | -482 | -1529 | -2658 | -3879 | -5202 | -6636 | -8194 | -9888 | -11731 | -13737 | -15923 | -18304 | -20899 | -23729 | -26814 | -30178 | -33846 | -37847 | -42210 | -46967 | -52154 | -57810 | -63975 |
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m | | 3751 | 3796 | 3849 | 3909 | 3977 | 4053 | 4137 | 4228 | 4327 | 4434 | 4550 | 4674 | 4806 | 4948 | 5099 | 5259 | 5430 | 5610 | 5802 | 6004 | 6218 | 6445 | 6684 | 6936 | 7201 |
Funds from operations, $m | | 4842 | 4154 | 3367 | 2380 | 1319 | 174 | -1065 | -2408 | -3867 | -5454 | -7181 | -9064 | -11116 | -13356 | -15800 | -18469 | -21384 | -24567 | -28045 | -31843 | -35991 | -40522 | -45470 | -50874 | -56774 |
Change in working capital, $m | | 36 | 42 | 48 | 54 | 61 | 67 | 73 | 79 | 86 | 92 | 99 | 106 | 113 | 121 | 128 | 136 | 145 | 153 | 162 | 171 | 181 | 191 | 202 | 213 | 224 |
Cash from operations, $m | | 4806 | 4112 | 3318 | 2326 | 1259 | 107 | -1138 | -2488 | -3953 | -5546 | -7280 | -9170 | -11230 | -13476 | -15929 | -18606 | -21528 | -24720 | -28207 | -32014 | -36172 | -40713 | -45672 | -51087 | -56998 |
Maintenance CAPEX, $m | | -3751 | -3796 | -3849 | -3909 | -3977 | -4053 | -4137 | -4228 | -4327 | -4434 | -4550 | -4674 | -4806 | -4948 | -5099 | -5259 | -5430 | -5610 | -5802 | -6004 | -6218 | -6445 | -6684 | -6936 | -7201 |
New CAPEX, $m | | -414 | -485 | -556 | -626 | -697 | -768 | -840 | -913 | -987 | -1063 | -1141 | -1221 | -1303 | -1388 | -1476 | -1567 | -1662 | -1761 | -1863 | -1970 | -2081 | -2197 | -2318 | -2445 | -2577 |
Total CAPEX, $m | | -4165 | -4281 | -4405 | -4536 | -4674 | -4821 | -4976 | -5140 | -5314 | -5497 | -5690 | -5894 | -6109 | -6336 | -6575 | -6827 | -7092 | -7371 | -7665 | -7974 | -8300 | -8642 | -9002 | -9381 | -9779 |
Free cash flow, $m | | 640 | -169 | -1086 | -2210 | -3416 | -4714 | -6114 | -7628 | -9267 | -11043 | -12971 | -15064 | -17339 | -19813 | -22504 | -25432 | -28620 | -32092 | -35872 | -39988 | -44472 | -49355 | -54674 | -60467 | -66777 |
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m | | 0 | 313 | 1251 | 2395 | 3622 | 4941 | 6363 | 7898 | 9559 | 11358 | 13308 | 15425 | 17724 | 20223 | 22940 | 25896 | 29112 | 32612 | 36422 | 40571 | 45087 | 50005 | 55359 | 61190 | 67539 |
Retained Cash Flow, $m | | 1044 | -144 | -164 | -185 | -206 | -227 | -248 | -270 | -292 | -314 | -337 | -361 | -385 | -410 | -436 | -463 | -491 | -521 | -551 | -582 | -615 | -650 | -685 | -723 | -762 |
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m | | 246 |
Cash available for distribution, $m | | 1722 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Discount rate, % | | 5.40 | 5.67 | 5.95 | 6.25 | 6.56 | 6.89 | 7.24 | 7.60 | 7.98 | 8.38 | 8.80 | 9.24 | 9.70 | 10.18 | 10.69 | 11.23 | 11.79 | 12.38 | 13.00 | 13.65 | 14.33 | 15.04 | 15.80 | 16.59 | 17.42 |
PV of cash for distribution, $m | | 1633 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Current shareholders' claim on cash, % | | 100 | 99 | 97 | 92 | 85 | 77 | 68 | 59 | 49 | 40 | 32 | 25 | 19 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |