Intrinsic Value Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI)

• Previous Close: $76.17
• Intrinsic Value: $3,091.06
• Upside potential: +3,958%

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz operates as a leading digital ecosystem in Kazakhstan, integrating fintech, e-commerce, and payments into a seamless platform. The company generates revenue primarily through transaction fees, merchant services, and interest income from its lending products, serving both consumers and businesses. Its flagship offerings include the Kaspi.kz Super App, which combines banking, marketplace, and payment solutions, creating a sticky user base and reinforcing its competitive moat in Central Asia's rapidly digitizing economy. Kaspi.kz dominates Kazakhstan’s fintech sector with a first-mover advantage, leveraging its proprietary technology and deep customer insights to cross-sell services efficiently. The company’s marketplace aggregates thousands of merchants, while its payments platform processes a significant share of the country’s digital transactions. This vertically integrated model allows Kaspi.kz to capture value across multiple touchpoints, sustaining high margins and scalability. Its market leadership is further cemented by strong brand recognition, regulatory expertise, and partnerships with local financial institutions, positioning it as a critical enabler of Kazakhstan’s cashless transition.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Kaspi.kz reported robust revenue of KZT 2.52 trillion for FY 2024, with net income reaching KZT 1.04 trillion, reflecting a high net margin of approximately 41%. The company’s operating cash flow of KZT 581.9 billion underscores its ability to convert earnings into liquidity efficiently, while capital expenditures of KZT -95.7 billion indicate disciplined investment in growth initiatives.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

Diluted EPS stood at KZT 5,430.77, demonstrating strong earnings power. The company’s capital efficiency is evident in its high return metrics, driven by asset-light operations and scalable technology. Kaspi.kz’s ability to monetize its user base through cross-selling and embedded finance contributes to sustained profitability.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Kaspi.kz maintains a solid balance sheet with KZT 619.5 billion in cash and equivalents, providing ample liquidity. Total debt of KZT 221.5 billion is manageable relative to its cash position and earnings, indicating low financial risk. The company’s leverage ratio remains conservative, supporting flexibility for strategic investments or shareholder returns.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Kaspi.kz has demonstrated consistent growth, supported by Kazakhstan’s digital adoption tailwinds. The company paid a dividend of KZT 3.51 per share, reflecting a commitment to returning capital to shareholders while retaining sufficient funds for expansion. Future growth is expected to be driven by user acquisition, product diversification, and potential regional expansion.

Valuation And Market Expectations

The market likely prices Kaspi.kz at a premium due to its dominant position, high margins, and growth potential in underpenetrated segments. Valuation multiples may reflect expectations of sustained double-digit earnings growth and further monetization of its ecosystem, though geopolitical and regulatory risks in Kazakhstan warrant monitoring.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Kaspi.kz’s integrated ecosystem, technological edge, and deep market penetration provide durable competitive advantages. The outlook remains positive, with opportunities to expand into adjacent services like insurance and wealth management. However, success depends on maintaining innovation, regulatory compliance, and adapting to evolving consumer preferences in a dynamic fintech landscape.

Sources

Company filings, investor presentations