| Valuation method | Value, $ | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial intelligence (AI) | 0.30 | -100 |
| Intrinsic value (DCF) | 3091.06 | 3958 |
| Graham-Dodd Method | n/a | |
| Graham Formula | 417.20 | 448 |
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ: KSPI) is a leading fintech and e-commerce platform in Kazakhstan, offering integrated payments, marketplace, and financial technology solutions. The company operates through three core segments: Payments Platform, Marketplace Platform, and Fintech Platform, serving both consumers and merchants. Kaspi.kz's Super App consolidates digital payments, online shopping, BNPL (Buy Now, Pay Later), travel bookings, and merchant financing, making it a one-stop financial and commercial hub. With a strong presence in Kazakhstan's rapidly digitizing economy, Kaspi.kz benefits from high mobile penetration and increasing e-commerce adoption. The company's proprietary data analytics enhance decision-making for merchants while providing seamless, cashless transactions for consumers. Its marketplace connects offline and online merchants, offering free delivery and advertising solutions, while its fintech arm provides lending and savings products. Kaspi.kz's vertically integrated ecosystem positions it as a dominant player in Central Asia's fintech and digital commerce space.
Kaspi.kz presents a compelling investment case due to its dominant position in Kazakhstan's fintech and e-commerce sectors, high profitability (net income of ~$2.3B in 2023), and strong cash flow generation. The company benefits from a sticky Super App ecosystem, low customer acquisition costs, and a rapidly digitizing economy. However, risks include regulatory scrutiny in fintech, competition from regional players, and geopolitical exposure given its sole focus on Kazakhstan. The stock's low beta (0.004) suggests limited correlation with broader markets, but investors should monitor currency risks and potential saturation in its core market.
Kaspi.kz holds a dominant position in Kazakhstan's fintech and digital commerce space due to its first-mover advantage, vertically integrated ecosystem, and strong brand recognition. Its Super App model creates high switching costs for users, while its proprietary payments infrastructure gives it a cost advantage over traditional banks. The company leverages deep data insights to cross-sell financial products (BNPL, savings) and marketplace services, driving higher monetization per user. Unlike global fintech players, Kaspi.kz has localized its offerings for Kazakhstan's unique market, including cash-on-delivery integrations and partnerships with offline merchants. However, its reliance on a single market (Kazakhstan) limits diversification, and regulatory risks persist as authorities scrutinize digital lending practices. Competitors lack Kaspi.kz's full-stack ecosystem but may challenge individual segments (e.g., banks in payments, global e-commerce players in marketplace).