Fiscal year | | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 |
INCOME STATEMENT |
Revenue growth rate, % | | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
Revenue, $ | | 27474 | 28926 | 30450 | 32051 | 33732 | 35497 | 37350 | 39296 | 41339 | 43484 | 45736 | 48101 | 50584 | 53191 | 55929 | 58803 | 61821 | 64989 | 68316 | 71809 | 75477 | 79328 | 83371 | 87617 | 92074 |
Variable operating expenses, $m | | 22831 | 24037 | 25304 | 26635 | 28031 | 29498 | 31038 | 32655 | 34353 | 36135 | 38007 | 39972 | 42036 | 44202 | 46477 | 48865 | 51373 | 54006 | 56771 | 59674 | 62721 | 65922 | 69282 | 72810 | 76514 |
Fixed operating expenses, $m | | 4530 | 4915 | 5333 | 5786 | 6278 | 6811 | 7390 | 8019 | 8700 | 9440 | 10242 | 11113 | 12057 | 13082 | 14194 | 15400 | 16709 | 18130 | 19671 | 21343 | 23157 | 25125 | 27261 | 29578 | 32092 |
Total operating expenses, $m | | 27361 | 28952 | 30637 | 32421 | 34309 | 36309 | 38428 | 40674 | 43053 | 45575 | 48249 | 51085 | 54093 | 57284 | 60671 | 64265 | 68082 | 72136 | 76442 | 81017 | 85878 | 91047 | 96543 | 102388 | 108606 |
Operating income, $m | | 113 | -26 | -187 | -369 | -577 | -812 | -1078 | -1378 | -1714 | -2091 | -2513 | -2983 | -3508 | -4093 | -4742 | -5463 | -6262 | -7147 | -8125 | -9207 | -10401 | -11719 | -13171 | -14771 | -16532 |
EBITDA, $m | | 1631 | 1571 | 1496 | 1402 | 1287 | 1150 | 986 | 795 | 572 | 314 | 17 | -323 | -711 | -1151 | -1648 | -2210 | -2842 | -3551 | -4345 | -5234 | -6225 | -7329 | -8557 | -9922 | -11436 |
Interest expense (income), $m | | 369 | 1602 | 1634 | 1667 | 1701 | 1738 | 1776 | 1816 | 1858 | 1902 | 1948 | 1997 | 2048 | 2102 | 2158 | 2217 | 2279 | 2344 | 2413 | 2485 | 2560 | 2639 | 2722 | 2810 | 2901 |
Earnings before tax, $m | | -256 | -1629 | -1820 | -2036 | -2278 | -2550 | -2854 | -3193 | -3572 | -3993 | -4461 | -4980 | -5556 | -6194 | -6900 | -7680 | -8541 | -9491 | -10538 | -11692 | -12961 | -14358 | -15894 | -17581 | -19433 |
Tax expense, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Net income, $m | | -256 | -1629 | -1820 | -2036 | -2278 | -2550 | -2854 | -3193 | -3572 | -3993 | -4461 | -4980 | -5556 | -6194 | -6900 | -7680 | -8541 | -9491 | -10538 | -11692 | -12961 | -14358 | -15894 | -17581 | -19433 |
BALANCE SHEET |
Cash and short-term investments, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total assets, $m | | 16484 | 17355 | 18270 | 19231 | 20239 | 21298 | 22410 | 23578 | 24803 | 26090 | 27442 | 28861 | 30351 | 31915 | 33557 | 35282 | 37092 | 38994 | 40990 | 43086 | 45286 | 47597 | 50023 | 52570 | 55245 |
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m | | 16484 | 17355 | 18270 | 19231 | 20239 | 21298 | 22410 | 23578 | 24803 | 26090 | 27442 | 28861 | 30351 | 31915 | 33557 | 35282 | 37092 | 38994 | 40990 | 43086 | 45286 | 47597 | 50023 | 52570 | 55245 |
Average production assets, $m | | 21732 | 22880 | 24086 | 25353 | 26682 | 28078 | 29544 | 31083 | 32699 | 34396 | 36177 | 38048 | 40012 | 42074 | 44240 | 46513 | 48900 | 51407 | 54038 | 56801 | 59702 | 62748 | 65947 | 69305 | 72831 |
Working capital, $m | | -6868 | -7231 | -7613 | -8013 | -8433 | -8874 | -9338 | -9824 | -10335 | -10871 | -11434 | -12025 | -12646 | -13298 | -13982 | -14701 | -15455 | -16247 | -17079 | -17952 | -18869 | -19832 | -20843 | -21904 | -23019 |
Total debt, $m | | 40059 | 40843 | 41666 | 42531 | 43438 | 44391 | 45392 | 46443 | 47546 | 48704 | 49921 | 51198 | 52539 | 53946 | 55425 | 56977 | 58606 | 60317 | 62114 | 64000 | 65981 | 68060 | 70244 | 72536 | 74943 |
Total liabilities, $m | | 14836 | 15620 | 16443 | 17308 | 18215 | 19168 | 20169 | 21220 | 22323 | 23481 | 24698 | 25975 | 27316 | 28723 | 30202 | 31754 | 33383 | 35094 | 36891 | 38777 | 40758 | 42837 | 45021 | 47313 | 49720 |
Total equity, $m | | 1648 | 1736 | 1827 | 1923 | 2024 | 2130 | 2241 | 2358 | 2480 | 2609 | 2744 | 2886 | 3035 | 3191 | 3356 | 3528 | 3709 | 3899 | 4099 | 4309 | 4529 | 4760 | 5002 | 5257 | 5524 |
Debt-to-equity ratio | | 5.599 | 23.081 | 22.355 | 21.666 | 21.014 | 20.395 | 19.809 | 19.252 | 18.724 | 18.224 | 17.748 | 17.297 | 16.869 | 16.462 | 16.076 | 15.709 | 15.361 | 15.030 | 14.715 | 14.416 | 14.132 | 13.862 | 13.606 | 13.362 | 13.130 |
Adjusted equity ratio | | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 |
CASH FLOW |
Net income, $m | | -256 | -1629 | -1820 | -2036 | -2278 | -2550 | -2854 | -3193 | -3572 | -3993 | -4461 | -4980 | -5556 | -6194 | -6900 | -7680 | -8541 | -9491 | -10538 | -11692 | -12961 | -14358 | -15894 | -17581 | -19433 |
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m | | 1517 | 1598 | 1682 | 1771 | 1864 | 1962 | 2065 | 2172 | 2286 | 2404 | 2529 | 2660 | 2798 | 2942 | 3094 | 3253 | 3420 | 3596 | 3780 | 3973 | 4177 | 4390 | 4614 | 4849 | 5096 |
Funds from operations, $m | | 1262 | -31 | -138 | -265 | -414 | -588 | -789 | -1021 | -1286 | -1588 | -1932 | -2320 | -2759 | -3252 | -3806 | -4427 | -5121 | -5895 | -6758 | -7718 | -8785 | -9968 | -11280 | -12732 | -14337 |
Change in working capital, $m | | -346 | -363 | -381 | -400 | -420 | -441 | -463 | -486 | -511 | -536 | -563 | -591 | -621 | -652 | -684 | -719 | -754 | -792 | -832 | -873 | -917 | -963 | -1011 | -1061 | -1114 |
Cash from operations, $m | | 1607 | 332 | 243 | 135 | 6 | -147 | -326 | -534 | -775 | -1052 | -1369 | -1729 | -2138 | -2600 | -3122 | -3708 | -4366 | -5103 | -5926 | -6845 | -7868 | -9005 | -10269 | -11670 | -13223 |
Maintenance CAPEX, $m | | -1517 | -1598 | -1682 | -1771 | -1864 | -1962 | -2065 | -2172 | -2286 | -2404 | -2529 | -2660 | -2798 | -2942 | -3094 | -3253 | -3420 | -3596 | -3780 | -3973 | -4177 | -4390 | -4614 | -4849 | -5096 |
New CAPEX, $m | | -1094 | -1149 | -1206 | -1266 | -1330 | -1396 | -1466 | -1539 | -1616 | -1697 | -1782 | -1871 | -1964 | -2062 | -2165 | -2273 | -2387 | -2506 | -2632 | -2763 | -2901 | -3046 | -3198 | -3358 | -3526 |
Total CAPEX, $m | | -2611 | -2746 | -2888 | -3037 | -3194 | -3358 | -3530 | -3711 | -3902 | -4101 | -4311 | -4531 | -4762 | -5004 | -5259 | -5526 | -5807 | -6102 | -6411 | -6736 | -7078 | -7436 | -7812 | -8207 | -8622 |
Free cash flow, $m | | -1004 | -2414 | -2645 | -2902 | -3188 | -3505 | -3856 | -4246 | -4677 | -5153 | -5679 | -6260 | -6900 | -7605 | -8381 | -9235 | -10173 | -11205 | -12338 | -13581 | -14946 | -16441 | -18081 | -19877 | -21845 |
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m | | 0 | 2501 | 2737 | 2998 | 3288 | 3611 | 3968 | 4363 | 4799 | 5282 | 5814 | 6402 | 7049 | 7761 | 8545 | 9407 | 10354 | 11395 | 12537 | 13791 | 15166 | 16672 | 18324 | 20132 | 22112 |
Retained Cash Flow, $m | | -12116 | -87 | -91 | -96 | -101 | -106 | -111 | -117 | -123 | -129 | -135 | -142 | -149 | -156 | -164 | -172 | -181 | -190 | -200 | -210 | -220 | -231 | -243 | -255 | -267 |
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m | | 20983 |
Cash available for distribution, $m | | 7863 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Discount rate, % | | 4.90 | 5.15 | 5.40 | 5.67 | 5.96 | 6.25 | 6.57 | 6.89 | 7.24 | 7.60 | 7.98 | 8.38 | 8.80 | 9.24 | 9.70 | 10.19 | 10.70 | 11.23 | 11.79 | 12.38 | 13.00 | 13.65 | 14.33 | 15.05 | 15.80 |
PV of cash for distribution, $m | | 7495 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Current shareholders' claim on cash, % | | 100 | 56 | 31 | 17 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |