Investor's Craft

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Investor's Craft

Intrinsic Value of Matson, Inc. (MATX)

Previous Close	$127.06
Intrinsic Value	$30.87
Upside potential	-76%

Previous Close

$127.06

Intrinsic Value

$30.87

Potential

-76%

VALUATION INPUT DATA

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	2036	2037	2038	2039	2040	2041	2042	2043	2044	2045	2046	2047	2048	2049
INCOME STATEMENT
Revenue growth rate, %	10.6	10.3	10.1	9.8	9.6	9.3	9.1	8.9	8.7	8.5	8.4	8.2	8.0	7.9	7.7	7.6	7.5	7.3	7.2	7.1	7.0	6.9	6.8	6.7	6.6
Revenue, $	3785	4175	4595	5045	5528	6043	6594	7182	7808	8474	9182	9933	10731	11576	12470	13418	14419	15478	16596	17776	19022	20336	21721	23181	24719
Variable operating expenses, $m	1673	1845	2031	2230	2443	2671	2915	3174	3451	3745	4058	4391	4743	5116	5512	5931	6373	6841	7335	7857	8408	8988	9601	10246	10926
Fixed operating expenses, $m	1472	1597	1733	1881	2040	2214	2402	2606	2828	3068	3329	3612	3919	4252	4613	5006	5431	5893	6394	6937	7527	8166	8861	9614	10431
Total operating expenses, $m	3145	3442	3764	4111	4483	4885	5317	5780	6279	6813	7387	8003	8662	9368	10125	10937	11804	12734	13729	14794	15935	17154	18462	19860	21357
Operating income, $m	639	732	831	935	1044	1158	1278	1401	1529	1660	1794	1931	2069	2207	2345	2481	2615	2744	2867	2982	3088	3181	3260	3321	3362
EBITDA, $m	925	1048	1179	1318	1465	1620	1782	1952	2128	2312	2501	2697	2898	3102	3311	3522	3734	3947	4158	4367	4571	4768	4956	5134	5296
Interest expense (income), $m	30	85	95	105	116	128	141	155	169	185	201	219	237	257	278	300	324	349	375	403	432	463	495	530	566
Earnings before tax, $m	609	647	736	830	928	1030	1137	1247	1360	1476	1593	1712	1831	1950	2067	2181	2291	2395	2492	2580	2656	2718	2764	2792	2796
Tax expense, $m	165	175	199	224	251	278	307	337	367	398	430	462	494	527	558	589	619	647	673	696	717	734	746	754	755
Net income, $m	445	473	537	606	677	752	830	910	993	1077	1163	1250	1337	1424	1509	1592	1672	1749	1819	1883	1939	1984	2018	2038	2041
BALANCE SHEET
Cash and short-term investments, $m	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total assets, $m	4693	5177	5698	6256	6854	7494	8177	8906	9682	10508	11385	12317	13306	14354	15463	16638	17880	19192	20579	22043	23587	25216	26934	28744	30652
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m	4693	5177	5698	6256	6854	7494	8177	8906	9682	10508	11385	12317	13306	14354	15463	16638	17880	19192	20579	22043	23587	25216	26934	28744	30652
Average production assets, $m	3126	3449	3795	4167	4566	4992	5447	5932	6449	6999	7584	8205	8863	9561	10301	11083	11910	12785	13708	14683	15712	16797	17942	19148	20418
Working capital, $m	-8	-8	-9	-10	-11	-12	-13	-14	-16	-17	-18	-20	-21	-23	-25	-27	-29	-31	-33	-36	-38	-41	-43	-46	-49
Total debt, $m	2121	2363	2623	2902	3201	3521	3863	4227	4615	5028	5467	5933	6427	6951	7506	8093	8714	9371	10064	10796	11568	12383	13241	14147	15100
Total liabilities, $m	2346	2589	2849	3128	3427	3747	4089	4453	4841	5254	5693	6159	6653	7177	7732	8319	8940	9596	10289	11021	11794	12608	13467	14372	15326
Total equity, $m	2346	2589	2849	3128	3427	3747	4089	4453	4841	5254	5693	6159	6653	7177	7732	8319	8940	9596	10289	11021	11794	12608	13467	14372	15326
Debt-to-equity ratio	0.319	0.819	0.829	0.839	0.847	0.854	0.861	0.868	0.873	0.878	0.883	0.888	0.892	0.896	0.899	0.902	0.905	0.908	0.911	0.913	0.915	0.917	0.919	0.921	0.923
Adjusted equity ratio	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500
CASH FLOW
Net income, $m	445	473	537	606	677	752	830	910	993	1077	1163	1250	1337	1424	1509	1592	1672	1749	1819	1883	1939	1984	2018	2038	2041
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m	285	316	348	383	421	461	504	550	599	651	707	766	829	895	966	1040	1119	1203	1291	1385	1483	1587	1697	1812	1934
Funds from operations, $m	730	788	886	989	1098	1213	1334	1460	1592	1729	1870	2016	2166	2319	2475	2633	2792	2952	3111	3268	3422	3571	3715	3850	3976
Change in working capital, $m	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-3	-3	-3	-3
Cash from operations, $m	731	789	887	990	1099	1214	1335	1462	1593	1730	1872	2017	2167	2321	2477	2635	2794	2954	3113	3270	3424	3574	3718	3853	3979
Maintenance CAPEX, $m	-285	-316	-348	-383	-421	-461	-504	-550	-599	-651	-707	-766	-829	-895	-966	-1040	-1119	-1203	-1291	-1385	-1483	-1587	-1697	-1812	-1934
New CAPEX, $m	-300	-323	-347	-372	-398	-426	-455	-485	-517	-550	-585	-621	-659	-698	-739	-782	-827	-874	-924	-975	-1029	-1085	-1144	-1206	-1270
Total CAPEX, $m	-585	-638	-695	-755	-819	-887	-959	-1036	-1116	-1202	-1292	-1387	-1487	-1593	-1705	-1823	-1947	-2077	-2215	-2360	-2512	-2672	-2841	-3018	-3205
Free cash flow, $m	146	151	191	235	280	327	376	426	477	528	580	631	680	727	772	812	847	876	898	910	912	902	877	835	774
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m	0	91	69	45	19	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	70	180
Retained Cash Flow, $m	-179	-242	-260	-279	-299	-320	-342	-364	-388	-413	-439	-466	-494	-524	-555	-587	-621	-656	-693	-732	-772	-815	-859	-905	-954
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m	484
Cash available for distribution, $m	452	0	0	0	0	7	34	62	89	116	141	165	186	203	217	225	226	220	205	178	140	87	18	0	0
Discount rate, %	4.90	5.15	5.40	5.67	5.96	6.25	6.57	6.89	7.24	7.60	7.98	8.38	8.80	9.24	9.70	10.19	10.70	11.23	11.79	12.38	13.00	13.65	14.33	15.05	15.80
PV of cash for distribution, $m	431	0	0	0	0	5	22	36	47	56	61	63	62	59	54	48	40	32	25	17	11	5	1	0	0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %	100	98	96	95	95	95	95	95	95	95	95	95	95	95	95	95	95	95	95	95	95	95	95	95	94

Investor's Craft

Investor's Craft

Intrinsic Value of Matson, Inc. (MATX)

VALUATION INPUT DATA

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

INCOME STATEMENT

BALANCE SHEET

CASH FLOW