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Intrinsic Value of McDonald's Corporation (MCD)

Previous Close$294.08
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$294.08

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

McDonald's Corporation operates as the world's leading global foodservice retailer, with a presence in over 100 countries. The company primarily generates revenue through franchised restaurants, which account for approximately 93% of its locations, leveraging a royalty-based model that ensures stable cash flows with lower operational risks. McDonald's core offerings include its iconic burgers, fries, and beverages, complemented by localized menus tailored to regional tastes, reinforcing its adaptability and broad consumer appeal. The company dominates the quick-service restaurant (QSR) sector, competing with rivals like Burger King and Wendy's, but maintains a distinct edge through brand recognition, operational efficiency, and a vast global footprint. Its market positioning is further strengthened by strategic digital initiatives, including mobile ordering and delivery partnerships, which enhance customer convenience and drive same-store sales growth. McDonald's also invests in sustainability efforts, such as sustainable sourcing and reduced carbon emissions, aligning with evolving consumer preferences and regulatory trends.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

McDonald's reported revenue of $25.92 billion for FY 2024, with net income reaching $8.22 billion, reflecting a robust net margin of approximately 31.7%. The company's operating cash flow stood at $9.45 billion, underscoring its ability to convert sales into cash efficiently. Capital expenditures totaled $2.78 billion, primarily directed toward modernizing restaurants and expanding digital capabilities, which support long-term growth and operational resilience.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

Diluted EPS for FY 2024 was $11.39, demonstrating McDonald's strong earnings power. The company's capital-light franchise model enhances return on invested capital (ROIC), allowing it to generate high margins with minimal direct operational overhead. This structure enables consistent shareholder returns, evidenced by its disciplined capital allocation toward dividends and share repurchases.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

McDonald's maintains a solid balance sheet with $1.09 billion in cash and equivalents, though its total debt of $51.95 billion reflects its leveraged position to optimize capital structure. The company's strong cash flow generation supports its debt obligations, and its credit profile remains investment-grade, ensuring financial flexibility for strategic initiatives and shareholder returns.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

McDonald's has demonstrated steady growth through same-store sales increases and strategic expansion in high-potential markets. The company's dividend per share of $6.78 highlights its commitment to returning capital to shareholders, supported by a payout ratio that aligns with its earnings stability. Share repurchases further complement its shareholder-friendly policies.

Valuation And Market Expectations

McDonald's trades at a premium valuation, reflecting its market leadership, predictable cash flows, and defensive characteristics. Investors price in expectations of mid-single-digit revenue growth and margin stability, driven by digital adoption and franchisee performance. The stock's resilience in economic downturns reinforces its appeal as a core holding in consumer staples portfolios.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

McDonald's strategic advantages include its unparalleled brand equity, scalable franchise model, and investments in technology and sustainability. The company is well-positioned to navigate inflationary pressures and shifting consumer trends, with a focus on driving long-term value through innovation and operational excellence. Its outlook remains positive, supported by global demand for affordable convenience and its ability to adapt to dynamic market conditions.

Sources

10-K, Investor Presentations, Bloomberg

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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