Fiscal year | | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 |
INCOME STATEMENT |
Revenue growth rate, % | | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
Revenue, $ | | 20769 | 21077 | 21427 | 21819 | 22252 | 22728 | 23246 | 23807 | 24413 | 25065 | 25763 | 26509 | 27304 | 28151 | 29050 | 30005 | 31016 | 32087 | 33220 | 34417 | 35682 | 37016 | 38424 | 39908 | 41472 |
Variable operating expenses, $m | | 4154 | 4215 | 4285 | 4364 | 4450 | 4546 | 4649 | 4761 | 4883 | 5013 | 5153 | 5302 | 5461 | 5630 | 5810 | 6001 | 6203 | 6417 | 6644 | 6883 | 7136 | 7403 | 7685 | 7982 | 8294 |
Fixed operating expenses, $m | | 5268 | 5715 | 6201 | 6728 | 7300 | 7921 | 8594 | 9325 | 10117 | 10977 | 11910 | 12922 | 14021 | 15213 | 16506 | 17909 | 19431 | 21083 | 22875 | 24819 | 26929 | 29218 | 31701 | 34396 | 37319 |
Total operating expenses, $m | | 9422 | 9930 | 10486 | 11092 | 11750 | 12467 | 13243 | 14086 | 15000 | 15990 | 17063 | 18224 | 19482 | 20843 | 22316 | 23910 | 25634 | 27500 | 29519 | 31702 | 34065 | 36621 | 39386 | 42378 | 45613 |
Operating income, $m | | 11347 | 11146 | 10940 | 10727 | 10501 | 10261 | 10003 | 9721 | 9414 | 9075 | 8700 | 8284 | 7822 | 7308 | 6734 | 6095 | 5382 | 4587 | 3702 | 2715 | 1617 | 395 | -962 | -2469 | -4141 |
EBITDA, $m | | 11619 | 11421 | 11220 | 11010 | 10790 | 10556 | 10304 | 10029 | 9729 | 9398 | 9032 | 8626 | 8174 | 7670 | 7107 | 6480 | 5780 | 4998 | 4127 | 3155 | 2073 | 868 | -471 | -1960 | -3613 |
Interest expense (income), $m | | 1049 | 1341 | 1356 | 1373 | 1392 | 1413 | 1436 | 1462 | 1489 | 1519 | 1551 | 1585 | 1622 | 1661 | 1702 | 1746 | 1793 | 1842 | 1895 | 1950 | 2009 | 2071 | 2136 | 2205 | 2278 |
Earnings before tax, $m | | 10298 | 9806 | 9585 | 9354 | 9109 | 8848 | 8566 | 8260 | 7924 | 7556 | 7149 | 6699 | 6201 | 5647 | 5032 | 4349 | 3589 | 2745 | 1807 | 765 | -392 | -1675 | -3098 | -4674 | -6419 |
Tax expense, $m | | 2780 | 2648 | 2588 | 2526 | 2460 | 2389 | 2313 | 2230 | 2140 | 2040 | 1930 | 1809 | 1674 | 1525 | 1359 | 1174 | 969 | 741 | 488 | 206 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Net income, $m | | 7517 | 7158 | 6997 | 6828 | 6650 | 6459 | 6253 | 6029 | 5785 | 5516 | 5219 | 4891 | 4527 | 4123 | 3674 | 3175 | 2620 | 2004 | 1319 | 558 | -392 | -1675 | -3098 | -4674 | -6419 |
BALANCE SHEET |
Cash and short-term investments, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total assets, $m | | 28245 | 28665 | 29141 | 29673 | 30263 | 30909 | 31614 | 32378 | 33202 | 34088 | 35037 | 36052 | 37134 | 38285 | 39508 | 40807 | 42182 | 43639 | 45179 | 46808 | 48527 | 50342 | 52257 | 54275 | 56402 |
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m | | 28245 | 28665 | 29141 | 29673 | 30263 | 30909 | 31614 | 32378 | 33202 | 34088 | 35037 | 36052 | 37134 | 38285 | 39508 | 40807 | 42182 | 43639 | 45179 | 46808 | 48527 | 50342 | 52257 | 54275 | 56402 |
Average production assets, $m | | 7705 | 7820 | 7949 | 8095 | 8255 | 8432 | 8624 | 8833 | 9057 | 9299 | 9558 | 9835 | 10130 | 10444 | 10778 | 11132 | 11507 | 11904 | 12325 | 12769 | 13238 | 13733 | 14255 | 14806 | 15386 |
Working capital, $m | | -5192 | -5269 | -5357 | -5455 | -5563 | -5682 | -5811 | -5952 | -6103 | -6266 | -6441 | -6627 | -6826 | -7038 | -7263 | -7501 | -7754 | -8022 | -8305 | -8604 | -8920 | -9254 | -9606 | -9977 | -10368 |
Total debt, $m | | 33514 | 33891 | 34320 | 34799 | 35329 | 35911 | 36546 | 37233 | 37975 | 38772 | 39627 | 40540 | 41513 | 42549 | 43651 | 44819 | 46057 | 47368 | 48755 | 50220 | 51767 | 53401 | 55124 | 56941 | 58855 |
Total liabilities, $m | | 25421 | 25798 | 26227 | 26706 | 27236 | 27818 | 28453 | 29140 | 29882 | 30679 | 31534 | 32447 | 33420 | 34456 | 35558 | 36726 | 37964 | 39275 | 40662 | 42127 | 43674 | 45308 | 47031 | 48848 | 50762 |
Total equity, $m | | 2825 | 2866 | 2914 | 2967 | 3026 | 3091 | 3161 | 3238 | 3320 | 3409 | 3504 | 3605 | 3713 | 3828 | 3951 | 4081 | 4218 | 4364 | 4518 | 4681 | 4853 | 5034 | 5226 | 5428 | 5640 |
Debt-to-equity ratio | | 9.288 | 11.692 | 11.630 | 11.566 | 11.499 | 11.430 | 11.359 | 11.287 | 11.214 | 11.140 | 11.066 | 10.992 | 10.917 | 10.843 | 10.770 | 10.697 | 10.625 | 10.554 | 10.484 | 10.416 | 10.349 | 10.283 | 10.219 | 10.156 | 10.095 |
Adjusted equity ratio | | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 |
CASH FLOW |
Net income, $m | | 7517 | 7158 | 6997 | 6828 | 6650 | 6459 | 6253 | 6029 | 5785 | 5516 | 5219 | 4891 | 4527 | 4123 | 3674 | 3175 | 2620 | 2004 | 1319 | 558 | -392 | -1675 | -3098 | -4674 | -6419 |
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m | | 272 | 275 | 279 | 284 | 289 | 295 | 301 | 308 | 315 | 323 | 332 | 341 | 351 | 362 | 373 | 385 | 398 | 411 | 425 | 440 | 456 | 473 | 490 | 509 | 529 |
Funds from operations, $m | | 7789 | 7433 | 7276 | 7112 | 6939 | 6754 | 6554 | 6337 | 6100 | 5839 | 5551 | 5232 | 4878 | 4484 | 4047 | 3560 | 3018 | 2415 | 1744 | 998 | 64 | -1202 | -2607 | -4165 | -5890 |
Change in working capital, $m | | -67 | -77 | -88 | -98 | -108 | -119 | -130 | -140 | -151 | -163 | -174 | -186 | -199 | -212 | -225 | -239 | -253 | -268 | -283 | -299 | -316 | -334 | -352 | -371 | -391 |
Cash from operations, $m | | 7856 | 7510 | 7364 | 7210 | 7047 | 6873 | 6684 | 6478 | 6252 | 6002 | 5725 | 5418 | 5077 | 4696 | 4272 | 3798 | 3271 | 2683 | 2027 | 1298 | 380 | -869 | -2256 | -3794 | -5499 |
Maintenance CAPEX, $m | | -272 | -275 | -279 | -284 | -289 | -295 | -301 | -308 | -315 | -323 | -332 | -341 | -351 | -362 | -373 | -385 | -398 | -411 | -425 | -440 | -456 | -473 | -490 | -509 | -529 |
New CAPEX, $m | | -99 | -114 | -130 | -145 | -161 | -176 | -192 | -208 | -225 | -242 | -259 | -277 | -295 | -314 | -334 | -354 | -375 | -397 | -420 | -444 | -469 | -495 | -522 | -551 | -580 |
Total CAPEX, $m | | -371 | -390 | -409 | -429 | -450 | -471 | -493 | -516 | -540 | -565 | -591 | -618 | -646 | -676 | -707 | -739 | -773 | -808 | -845 | -884 | -925 | -968 | -1013 | -1060 | -1109 |
Free cash flow, $m | | 7485 | 7121 | 6954 | 6781 | 6597 | 6402 | 6191 | 5962 | 5711 | 5437 | 5134 | 4800 | 4430 | 4020 | 3565 | 3059 | 2498 | 1874 | 1182 | 413 | -545 | -1837 | -3268 | -4854 | -6608 |
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 717 | 2018 | 3460 | 5055 | 6821 |
Retained Cash Flow, $m | | -18350 | -42 | -48 | -53 | -59 | -65 | -70 | -76 | -82 | -89 | -95 | -101 | -108 | -115 | -122 | -130 | -138 | -146 | -154 | -163 | -172 | -181 | -191 | -202 | -213 |
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m | | 11985 |
Cash available for distribution, $m | | 1121 | 7079 | 6907 | 6728 | 6538 | 6337 | 6120 | 5885 | 5629 | 5348 | 5040 | 4699 | 4322 | 3905 | 3443 | 2930 | 2360 | 1729 | 1028 | 251 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Discount rate, % | | 7.20 | 7.56 | 7.94 | 8.33 | 8.75 | 9.19 | 9.65 | 10.13 | 10.64 | 11.17 | 11.73 | 12.31 | 12.93 | 13.58 | 14.26 | 14.97 | 15.72 | 16.50 | 17.33 | 18.19 | 19.10 | 20.06 | 21.06 | 22.11 | 23.22 |
PV of cash for distribution, $m | | 1045 | 6119 | 5492 | 4884 | 4298 | 3739 | 3212 | 2719 | 2266 | 1855 | 1488 | 1166 | 890 | 657 | 466 | 314 | 197 | 111 | 49 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Current shareholders' claim on cash, % | | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 87 | 61 | 36 | 19 | 8 |