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Intrinsic Value of Altria Group, Inc. (MO)

Previous Close$51.86
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$51.86

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2023 and quarterly data as of 2023-12-31.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039204020412042204320442045204620472048

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %1.31.51.71.82.02.12.32.42.52.72.82.93.03.13.23.33.43.53.53.63.73.73.83.93.9
Revenue, $20769210772142721819222522272823246238072441325065257632650927304281512905030005310163208733220344173568237016384243990841472
Variable operating expenses, $m4154421542854364445045464649476148835013515353025461563058106001620364176644688371367403768579828294
Fixed operating expenses, $m526857156201672873007921859493251011710977119101292214021152131650617909194312108322875248192692929218317013439637319
Total operating expenses, $m942299301048611092117501246713243140861500015990170631822419482208432231623910256342750029519317023406536621393864237845613
Operating income, $m1134711146109401072710501102611000397219414907587008284782273086734609553824587370227151617395-962-2469-4141
EBITDA, $m11619114211122011010107901055610304100299729939890328626817476707107648057804998412731552073868-471-1960-3613
Interest expense (income), $m1049134113561373139214131436146214891519155115851622166117021746179318421895195020092071213622052278
Earnings before tax, $m10298980695859354910988488566826079247556714966996201564750324349358927451807765-392-1675-3098-4674-6419
Tax expense, $m278026482588252624602389231322302140204019301809167415251359117496974148820600000
Net income, $m7517715869976828665064596253602957855516521948914527412336743175262020041319558-392-1675-3098-4674-6419

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m28245286652914129673302633090931614323783320234088350373605237134382853950840807421824363945179468084852750342522575427556402
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m28245286652914129673302633090931614323783320234088350373605237134382853950840807421824363945179468084852750342522575427556402
Average production assets, $m77057820794980958255843286248833905792999558983510130104441077811132115071190412325127691323813733142551480615386
Working capital, $m-5192-5269-5357-5455-5563-5682-5811-5952-6103-6266-6441-6627-6826-7038-7263-7501-7754-8022-8305-8604-8920-9254-9606-9977-10368
Total debt, $m33514338913432034799353293591136546372333797538772396274054041513425494365144819460574736848755502205176753401551245694158855
Total liabilities, $m25421257982622726706272362781828453291402988230679315343244733420344563555836726379643927540662421274367445308470314884850762
Total equity, $m2825286629142967302630913161323833203409350436053713382839514081421843644518468148535034522654285640
Debt-to-equity ratio9.28811.69211.63011.56611.49911.43011.35911.28711.21411.14011.06610.99210.91710.84310.77010.69710.62510.55410.48410.41610.34910.28310.21910.15610.095
Adjusted equity ratio0.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.100

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m7517715869976828665064596253602957855516521948914527412336743175262020041319558-392-1675-3098-4674-6419
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m272275279284289295301308315323332341351362373385398411425440456473490509529
Funds from operations, $m778974337276711269396754655463376100583955515232487844844047356030182415174499864-1202-2607-4165-5890
Change in working capital, $m-67-77-88-98-108-119-130-140-151-163-174-186-199-212-225-239-253-268-283-299-316-334-352-371-391
Cash from operations, $m78567510736472107047687366846478625260025725541850774696427237983271268320271298380-869-2256-3794-5499
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-272-275-279-284-289-295-301-308-315-323-332-341-351-362-373-385-398-411-425-440-456-473-490-509-529
New CAPEX, $m-99-114-130-145-161-176-192-208-225-242-259-277-295-314-334-354-375-397-420-444-469-495-522-551-580
Total CAPEX, $m-371-390-409-429-450-471-493-516-540-565-591-618-646-676-707-739-773-808-845-884-925-968-1013-1060-1109
Free cash flow, $m7485712169546781659764026191596257115437513448004430402035653059249818741182413-545-1837-3268-4854-6608
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m000000000000000000007172018346050556821
Retained Cash Flow, $m-18350-42-48-53-59-65-70-76-82-89-95-101-108-115-122-130-138-146-154-163-172-181-191-202-213
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m11985
Cash available for distribution, $m112170796907672865386337612058855629534850404699432239053443293023601729102825100000
Discount rate, %7.207.567.948.338.759.199.6510.1310.6411.1711.7312.3112.9313.5814.2614.9715.7216.5017.3318.1919.1020.0621.0622.1123.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m10456119549248844298373932122719226618551488116689065746631419711149900000
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100876136198