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Intrinsic Value of NIKE, Inc. (NKE)

Previous Close$72.63
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$72.63

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

NIKE, Inc. operates as a global leader in athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessories, serving both performance and lifestyle markets. The company generates revenue through direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales, wholesale distribution, and licensing, with a strong emphasis on digital transformation and brand loyalty. NIKE's vertically integrated supply chain and innovation-driven product development, such as its Air and Flyknit technologies, reinforce its competitive edge. The company holds a dominant position in the sportswear industry, competing with brands like Adidas and Under Armour, while leveraging endorsements from elite athletes and strategic partnerships to maintain its premium brand perception. Its focus on sustainability and digital engagement, including the SNKRS app and Nike Membership, further strengthens its market positioning.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

NIKE reported revenue of $51.36 billion for FY 2024, with net income of $5.7 billion, reflecting a net margin of approximately 11.1%. Diluted EPS stood at $3.73, supported by disciplined cost management and pricing power. Operating cash flow was robust at $7.43 billion, though capital expenditures of $812 million indicate ongoing investments in supply chain and digital infrastructure. The company’s efficiency metrics underscore its ability to monetize its brand effectively.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

NIKE’s earnings power is evident in its consistent profitability and strong return on invested capital (ROIC), driven by high-margin DTC sales and brand premiumization. The company’s capital efficiency is further highlighted by its ability to generate substantial free cash flow, which supports shareholder returns and reinvestment in innovation. Its scalable business model allows for incremental margin expansion as digital penetration grows.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

NIKE maintains a solid balance sheet with $9.86 billion in cash and equivalents, providing liquidity for strategic initiatives. Total debt of $11.95 billion is manageable given its cash flow generation, with a conservative leverage profile. The company’s financial health is robust, supported by its ability to service debt and fund growth without compromising flexibility.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

NIKE’s growth is fueled by geographic expansion, particularly in emerging markets, and category diversification. The company has a history of returning capital to shareholders, with a dividend per share of $1.43 in FY 2024. While dividend growth has been modest, share repurchases and reinvestment in high-return projects underscore a balanced capital allocation strategy.

Valuation And Market Expectations

NIKE’s valuation reflects its premium brand status and growth prospects, trading at a premium to peers. Market expectations are anchored on sustained DTC growth, margin expansion, and innovation-led product cycles. The stock’s performance is closely tied to execution in digital transformation and international markets.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

NIKE’s strategic advantages include its iconic brand, innovation pipeline, and direct-to-consumer shift. The outlook remains positive, with opportunities in women’s and kids’ segments, sustainability initiatives, and digital engagement. Risks include macroeconomic headwinds and competitive pressures, but NIKE’s scale and brand equity position it well for long-term growth.

Sources

NIKE, Inc. 10-K (FY 2024), investor presentations

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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