Intrinsic Value Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V. (OMAB)

• Previous Close: $116.96
• Intrinsic Value: $102.62
• Upside potential: -12%

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (OMA) operates 13 airports in northern and central Mexico, serving as a critical infrastructure provider in the region. The company generates revenue primarily through aeronautical services (landing fees, passenger charges) and non-aeronautical services (retail, parking, and real estate). OMA holds a monopolistic position in its concession areas, benefiting from regulated tariffs and long-term contracts with airlines, which provide stable cash flows. The company’s strategic locations, including Monterrey and Chihuahua, position it as a key facilitator of trade and tourism in Mexico’s industrial and manufacturing hubs. OMA’s diversified revenue streams and focus on operational efficiency strengthen its resilience against demand fluctuations. Its market position is further reinforced by Mexico’s growing middle class and increasing air travel penetration, though it faces competition from alternative transport modes and regulatory risks.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

OMA reported revenue of MXN 15.1 billion in FY 2024, with net income of MXN 4.9 billion, reflecting a robust net margin of approximately 32.7%. The company’s operating cash flow of MXN 6.2 billion underscores strong cash generation, while capital expenditures of MXN 321 million indicate disciplined reinvestment. Diluted EPS of MXN 102.08 highlights efficient earnings distribution across its 48.3 million outstanding shares.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

OMA’s earnings power is driven by high-margin aeronautical and non-aeronautical services, with operating cash flow covering debt obligations comfortably. The company’s capital efficiency is evident in its ability to maintain profitability while investing in infrastructure upgrades. Its asset-light model and regulated returns contribute to consistent ROCE, though leverage metrics warrant monitoring given total debt of MXN 11.5 billion.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

OMA’s balance sheet shows MXN 1.7 billion in cash against total debt of MXN 11.5 billion, indicating moderate liquidity. The debt level is manageable given stable cash flows, but refinancing risks persist in a rising-rate environment. The company’s financial health is supported by its concession-based model, which provides long-term revenue visibility.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

OMA’s growth is tied to passenger traffic recovery and non-aeronautical revenue expansion. The company paid a dividend of MXN 4.49 per share in FY 2024, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns. Future growth may hinge on airport modernization and regional economic trends, though dividend sustainability depends on maintaining strong cash flows.

Valuation And Market Expectations

OMA trades at a premium due to its regulated monopoly and high margins. Market expectations are anchored to traffic recovery and tariff adjustments, with valuation metrics reflecting confidence in its cash flow stability. However, geopolitical and regulatory risks could weigh on long-term multiples.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

OMA’s strategic advantages include its concession exclusivity, diversified revenue streams, and prime locations. The outlook remains positive, supported by Mexico’s economic growth and air travel demand, though regulatory changes and competition from ground transport pose risks. The company’s focus on operational efficiency and capex discipline positions it well for sustained performance.

Sources

Company filings (10-K), investor presentations