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Intrinsic Value of Oracle Corporation (ORCL)

Previous Close$157.18
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$157.18

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of 2024-05-31.

Quarterly Revenue – actual and YoY change

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %6.05.95.95.95.85.85.75.75.75.65.65.65.55.55.55.55.45.45.45.45.45.35.35.35.3
Revenue, $5613959479629906667970556746307891083407881309309298304103779109528115567121909128569135564142909150622158721167226176157185535195382205721
Variable operating expenses, $m50525535315669160011635016716771019750667931783783884749340198576104010109718115712122007128618135560142849150504158541166981175844185149
Fixed operating expenses, $m-10912-11839-12846-13937-15122-16408-17802-19315-20957-22738-24671-26768-29044-31512-34191-37097-40250-43672-47384-51411-55781-60523-65667-71249-77305
Total operating expenses, $m39613416924384546074483795075953217557515836061045638036663369532724987552778615817578494688176914389472398018101314104595107844
Operating income, $m16526177871914520605221782387125693276562977032048345023714639996430694638249954538075796262446672837250478138842219078797877
EBITDA, $m22656242852603027897298963203834332367903942542249452784852552009557485975964066686897365578988847199087797496104612112264120494
Interest expense (income), $m3779469549565230551858216139647468257194758279898416886693379833103531089911473120761270913373140711480315572
Earnings before tax, $m12747130921418915375166601804919554211822294524854269202915731580342033704440121434544706350973552085979564765701507598482305
Tax expense, $m344235353831415144984873528057196195671172687873852792351000210833117321270713763149061614517487189402051622222
Net income, $m930595571035811224121611317614274154631675018143196522128523053249692704229289317213435637210403024365147279512095546860082

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m121821129069136688144694153107161947171235180993191243202010213320225200237677250781264543278995294173310112326849344425362881382261402610423978446415
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m121821129069136688144694153107161947171235180993191243202010213320225200237677250781264543278995294173310112326849344425362881382261402610423978446415
Average production assets, $m9032795702101350107287113525120080126966134201141802149786158172166980176231185947196152206868218122229940242350255382269067283437298525314369331006
Working capital, $m-12912-13680-14488-15336-16228-17165-18149-19184-20270-21411-22610-23869-25192-26580-28039-29571-31180-32869-34643-36506-38462-40516-42673-44938-47316
Total debt, $m117370123893130750137955145527153483161842170624179850189540199719210411221640233433245819258827272487286831301895317713334324351766370080389312409505
Total liabilities, $m109639116162123019130224137796145752154111162893172119181809191988202680213909225702238088251096264756279100294164309982326593344035362349381581401774
Total equity, $m12182129071366914469153111619517123180991912420201213322252023768250782645427900294173101132685344423628838226402614239844642
Debt-to-equity ratio7.7559.0949.0649.0369.0108.9868.9638.9428.9228.9038.8858.8698.8538.8388.8248.8118.7988.7878.7768.7658.7558.7468.7378.7298.721
Adjusted equity ratio0.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.100

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m930595571035811224121611317614274154631675018143196522128523053249692704229289317213435637210403024365147279512095546860082
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m61316498688572917718816786399134965510202107761137912013126791337814112148831569216542174351837319357203912147722616
Funds from operations, $m15436160561724318515198802134322913245972640528345304283266435066376474042043400466045004853752577376202366636716017694582699
Change in working capital, $m-731-768-807-849-892-937-984-1034-1086-1141-1199-1259-1322-1389-1459-1532-1609-1689-1774-1863-1956-2054-2157-2265-2378
Cash from operations, $m16167168241805019364207722228023898256322749129486316263392336389390364187944932482125173855526596006398068690737587921085077
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-6131-6498-6885-7291-7718-8167-8639-9134-9655-10202-10776-11379-12013-12679-13378-14112-14883-15692-16542-17435-18373-19357-20391-21477-22616
New CAPEX, $m-5113-5374-5649-5936-6238-6555-6887-7235-7600-7984-8386-8808-9251-9716-10204-10716-11254-11818-12410-13032-13685-14370-15089-15844-16636
Total CAPEX, $m-11243-11873-12534-13228-13957-14722-15526-16369-17255-18185-19162-20188-21264-22395-23582-24828-26136-27510-28953-30467-32057-33727-35480-37320-39253
Free cash flow, $m492349515517613668157558837292621023611301124641373615125166411829720104220762422726574291323192234963382784188945824
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m0000000000000000000000000
Retained Cash Flow, $m-26245-725-762-801-841-884-929-976-1025-1077-1131-1188-1248-1310-1376-1445-1518-1594-1674-1758-1846-1938-2035-2137-2244
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m22767
Cash available for distribution, $m14454226475553365974667474438287921110224113331254813877153311692118659205582263324900273753007733025362433975243580
Discount rate, %6.306.626.957.297.668.048.448.869.319.7710.2610.7811.3111.8812.4713.1013.7514.4415.1615.9216.7217.5518.4319.3520.32
PV of cash for distribution, $m135937183887402641314197422042004135402438703675344531852902260423001997170414261171942741570428
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100