Fiscal year | | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 | 2049 |
INCOME STATEMENT |
Revenue growth rate, % | | -10.1 | -9.3 | -8.6 | -7.9 | -7.3 | -6.7 | -6.1 | -5.5 | -5.0 | -4.5 | -4.0 | -3.6 | -3.2 | -2.8 | -2.4 | -2.0 | -1.6 | -1.3 | -1.0 | -0.7 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 |
Revenue, $ | | 28376 | 25725 | 23505 | 21637 | 20058 | 18717 | 17576 | 16601 | 15768 | 15056 | 14447 | 13929 | 13489 | 13118 | 12808 | 12552 | 12345 | 12183 | 12062 | 11977 | 11928 | 11911 | 11925 | 11967 | 12038 |
Variable operating expenses, $m | | 20913 | 18959 | 17323 | 15947 | 14783 | 13795 | 12953 | 12235 | 11621 | 11096 | 10648 | 10266 | 9941 | 9668 | 9439 | 9251 | 9099 | 8979 | 8889 | 8827 | 8791 | 8778 | 8788 | 8820 | 8872 |
Fixed operating expenses, $m | | 4160 | 4513 | 4897 | 5313 | 5765 | 6255 | 6786 | 7363 | 7989 | 8668 | 9405 | 10204 | 11072 | 12013 | 13034 | 14142 | 15344 | 16648 | 18063 | 19598 | 21264 | 23072 | 25033 | 27160 | 29469 |
Total operating expenses, $m | | 25073 | 23472 | 22220 | 21260 | 20548 | 20050 | 19739 | 19598 | 19610 | 19764 | 20053 | 20470 | 21013 | 21681 | 22473 | 23393 | 24443 | 25627 | 26952 | 28425 | 30055 | 31850 | 33821 | 35980 | 38341 |
Operating income, $m | | 3303 | 2252 | 1285 | 378 | -489 | -1332 | -2164 | -2997 | -3842 | -4708 | -5605 | -6541 | -7524 | -8563 | -9665 | -10840 | -12097 | -13444 | -14891 | -16448 | -18127 | -19939 | -21896 | -24013 | -26303 |
EBITDA, $m | | 4215 | 3072 | 2028 | 1057 | 136 | -753 | -1623 | -2489 | -3362 | -4253 | -5170 | -6124 | -7122 | -8173 | -9286 | -10470 | -11734 | -13087 | -14539 | -16100 | -17781 | -19594 | -21552 | -23668 | -25957 |
Interest expense (income), $m | | 636 | 1858 | 1750 | 1659 | 1582 | 1517 | 1462 | 1415 | 1375 | 1341 | 1312 | 1287 | 1266 | 1247 | 1232 | 1220 | 1209 | 1201 | 1194 | 1189 | 1185 | 1183 | 1183 | 1183 | 1185 |
Earnings before tax, $m | | 2668 | 394 | -465 | -1281 | -2071 | -2849 | -3626 | -4412 | -5217 | -6049 | -6917 | -7828 | -8790 | -9810 | -10898 | -12060 | -13306 | -14644 | -16085 | -17637 | -19312 | -21122 | -23079 | -25196 | -27488 |
Tax expense, $m | | 720 | 106 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Net income, $m | | 1947 | 288 | -465 | -1281 | -2071 | -2849 | -3626 | -4412 | -5217 | -6049 | -6917 | -7828 | -8790 | -9810 | -10898 | -12060 | -13306 | -14644 | -16085 | -17637 | -19312 | -21122 | -23079 | -25196 | -27488 |
BALANCE SHEET |
Cash and short-term investments, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total assets, $m | | 32349 | 29326 | 26796 | 24667 | 22866 | 21338 | 20036 | 18925 | 17976 | 17164 | 16470 | 15879 | 15377 | 14954 | 14601 | 14309 | 14074 | 13889 | 13750 | 13654 | 13598 | 13579 | 13594 | 13643 | 13724 |
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m | | 32349 | 29326 | 26796 | 24667 | 22866 | 21338 | 20036 | 18925 | 17976 | 17164 | 16470 | 15879 | 15377 | 14954 | 14601 | 14309 | 14074 | 13889 | 13750 | 13654 | 13598 | 13579 | 13594 | 13643 | 13724 |
Average production assets, $m | | 5902 | 5351 | 4889 | 4501 | 4172 | 3893 | 3656 | 3453 | 3280 | 3132 | 3005 | 2897 | 2806 | 2728 | 2664 | 2611 | 2568 | 2534 | 2509 | 2491 | 2481 | 2477 | 2480 | 2489 | 2504 |
Working capital, $m | | 2809 | 2547 | 2327 | 2142 | 1986 | 1853 | 1740 | 1643 | 1561 | 1491 | 1430 | 1379 | 1335 | 1299 | 1268 | 1243 | 1222 | 1206 | 1194 | 1186 | 1181 | 1179 | 1181 | 1185 | 1192 |
Total debt, $m | | 46461 | 43741 | 41464 | 39547 | 37927 | 36551 | 35380 | 34380 | 33525 | 32795 | 32170 | 31638 | 31187 | 30806 | 30488 | 30226 | 30014 | 29847 | 29723 | 29636 | 29586 | 29568 | 29582 | 29626 | 29699 |
Total liabilities, $m | | 29114 | 26393 | 24116 | 22200 | 20579 | 19204 | 18033 | 17033 | 16178 | 15447 | 14823 | 14291 | 13840 | 13459 | 13141 | 12878 | 12666 | 12500 | 12375 | 12289 | 12238 | 12221 | 12235 | 12279 | 12351 |
Total equity, $m | | 3235 | 2933 | 2680 | 2467 | 2287 | 2134 | 2004 | 1893 | 1798 | 1716 | 1647 | 1588 | 1538 | 1495 | 1460 | 1431 | 1407 | 1389 | 1375 | 1365 | 1360 | 1358 | 1359 | 1364 | 1372 |
Debt-to-equity ratio | | 4.914 | 15.843 | 16.324 | 16.810 | 17.295 | 17.775 | 18.243 | 18.695 | 19.126 | 19.533 | 19.912 | 20.260 | 20.575 | 20.855 | 21.099 | 21.306 | 21.477 | 21.610 | 21.707 | 21.768 | 21.795 | 21.788 | 21.751 | 21.683 | 21.588 |
Adjusted equity ratio | | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 |
CASH FLOW |
Net income, $m | | 1947 | 288 | -465 | -1281 | -2071 | -2849 | -3626 | -4412 | -5217 | -6049 | -6917 | -7828 | -8790 | -9810 | -10898 | -12060 | -13306 | -14644 | -16085 | -17637 | -19312 | -21122 | -23079 | -25196 | -27488 |
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m | | 912 | 820 | 743 | 679 | 625 | 579 | 541 | 508 | 480 | 456 | 435 | 417 | 402 | 390 | 379 | 370 | 363 | 357 | 352 | 348 | 346 | 345 | 344 | 344 | 346 |
Funds from operations, $m | | 2859 | 1107 | 279 | -602 | -1446 | -2270 | -3085 | -3904 | -4738 | -5594 | -6482 | -7410 | -8387 | -9420 | -10519 | -11690 | -12943 | -14288 | -15733 | -17289 | -18966 | -20778 | -22735 | -24852 | -27142 |
Change in working capital, $m | | -316 | -263 | -220 | -185 | -156 | -133 | -113 | -96 | -82 | -71 | -60 | -51 | -44 | -37 | -31 | -25 | -20 | -16 | -12 | -8 | -5 | -2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
Cash from operations, $m | | 3175 | 1370 | 498 | -417 | -1290 | -2137 | -2972 | -3808 | -4655 | -5523 | -6422 | -7359 | -8344 | -9384 | -10488 | -11665 | -12923 | -14271 | -15721 | -17280 | -18962 | -20776 | -22736 | -24856 | -27149 |
Maintenance CAPEX, $m | | -912 | -820 | -743 | -679 | -625 | -579 | -541 | -508 | -480 | -456 | -435 | -417 | -402 | -390 | -379 | -370 | -363 | -357 | -352 | -348 | -346 | -345 | -344 | -344 | -346 |
New CAPEX, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | -9 | -15 |
Total CAPEX, $m | | -912 | -820 | -743 | -679 | -625 | -579 | -541 | -508 | -480 | -456 | -435 | -417 | -402 | -390 | -379 | -370 | -363 | -357 | -352 | -348 | -346 | -345 | -347 | -353 | -360 |
Free cash flow, $m | | 2263 | 550 | -245 | -1096 | -1915 | -2716 | -3513 | -4316 | -5135 | -5979 | -6857 | -7776 | -8746 | -9773 | -10867 | -12035 | -13285 | -14628 | -16073 | -17629 | -19308 | -21121 | -23083 | -25209 | -27510 |
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m | | 0 | 0 | 42 | 926 | 1771 | 2594 | 3409 | 4227 | 5059 | 5914 | 6801 | 7729 | 8706 | 9740 | 10839 | 12011 | 13266 | 14613 | 16061 | 17621 | 19303 | 21119 | 23085 | 25214 | 27518 |
Retained Cash Flow, $m | | 590 | 302 | 253 | 213 | 180 | 153 | 130 | 111 | 95 | 81 | 69 | 59 | 50 | 42 | 35 | 29 | 24 | 18 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 2 | -2 | -5 | -8 |
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m | | 13682 |
Cash available for distribution, $m | | 16417 | 792 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Discount rate, % | | 4.90 | 5.15 | 5.40 | 5.67 | 5.96 | 6.25 | 6.57 | 6.89 | 7.24 | 7.60 | 7.98 | 8.38 | 8.80 | 9.24 | 9.70 | 10.19 | 10.70 | 11.23 | 11.79 | 12.38 | 13.00 | 13.65 | 14.33 | 15.05 | 15.80 |
PV of cash for distribution, $m | | 15650 | 716 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Current shareholders' claim on cash, % | | 100 | 100 | 100 | 89 | 71 | 51 | 33 | 19 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |