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Intrinsic Value of PACCAR Inc (PCAR)

Previous Close$96.91
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$96.91

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of 2024-12-31.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %-10.1-9.3-8.6-7.9-7.3-6.7-6.1-5.5-5.0-4.5-4.0-3.6-3.2-2.8-2.4-2.0-1.6-1.3-1.0-0.7-0.4-0.10.10.40.6
Revenue, $28376257252350521637200581871717576166011576815056144471392913489131181280812552123451218312062119771192811911119251196712038
Variable operating expenses, $m2091318959173231594714783137951295312235116211109610648102669941966894399251909989798889882787918778878888208872
Fixed operating expenses, $m416045134897531357656255678673637989866894051020411072120131303414142153441664818063195982126423072250332716029469
Total operating expenses, $m25073234722222021260205482005019739195981961019764200532047021013216812247323393244432562726952284253005531850338213598038341
Operating income, $m330322521285378-489-1332-2164-2997-3842-4708-5605-6541-7524-8563-9665-10840-12097-13444-14891-16448-18127-19939-21896-24013-26303
EBITDA, $m4215307220281057136-753-1623-2489-3362-4253-5170-6124-7122-8173-9286-10470-11734-13087-14539-16100-17781-19594-21552-23668-25957
Interest expense (income), $m636185817501659158215171462141513751341131212871266124712321220120912011194118911851183118311831185
Earnings before tax, $m2668394-465-1281-2071-2849-3626-4412-5217-6049-6917-7828-8790-9810-10898-12060-13306-14644-16085-17637-19312-21122-23079-25196-27488
Tax expense, $m72010600000000000000000000000
Net income, $m1947288-465-1281-2071-2849-3626-4412-5217-6049-6917-7828-8790-9810-10898-12060-13306-14644-16085-17637-19312-21122-23079-25196-27488

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m32349293262679624667228662133820036189251797617164164701587915377149541460114309140741388913750136541359813579135941364313724
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m32349293262679624667228662133820036189251797617164164701587915377149541460114309140741388913750136541359813579135941364313724
Average production assets, $m5902535148894501417238933656345332803132300528972806272826642611256825342509249124812477248024892504
Working capital, $m2809254723272142198618531740164315611491143013791335129912681243122212061194118611811179118111851192
Total debt, $m46461437414146439547379273655135380343803352532795321703163831187308063048830226300142984729723296362958629568295822962629699
Total liabilities, $m29114263932411622200205791920418033170331617815447148231429113840134591314112878126661250012375122891223812221122351227912351
Total equity, $m3235293326802467228721342004189317981716164715881538149514601431140713891375136513601358135913641372
Debt-to-equity ratio4.91415.84316.32416.81017.29517.77518.24318.69519.12619.53319.91220.26020.57520.85521.09921.30621.47721.61021.70721.76821.79521.78821.75121.68321.588
Adjusted equity ratio0.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.100

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m1947288-465-1281-2071-2849-3626-4412-5217-6049-6917-7828-8790-9810-10898-12060-13306-14644-16085-17637-19312-21122-23079-25196-27488
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m912820743679625579541508480456435417402390379370363357352348346345344344346
Funds from operations, $m28591107279-602-1446-2270-3085-3904-4738-5594-6482-7410-8387-9420-10519-11690-12943-14288-15733-17289-18966-20778-22735-24852-27142
Change in working capital, $m-316-263-220-185-156-133-113-96-82-71-60-51-44-37-31-25-20-16-12-8-5-2147
Cash from operations, $m31751370498-417-1290-2137-2972-3808-4655-5523-6422-7359-8344-9384-10488-11665-12923-14271-15721-17280-18962-20776-22736-24856-27149
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-912-820-743-679-625-579-541-508-480-456-435-417-402-390-379-370-363-357-352-348-346-345-344-344-346
New CAPEX, $m0000000000000000000000-3-9-15
Total CAPEX, $m-912-820-743-679-625-579-541-508-480-456-435-417-402-390-379-370-363-357-352-348-346-345-347-353-360
Free cash flow, $m2263550-245-1096-1915-2716-3513-4316-5135-5979-6857-7776-8746-9773-10867-12035-13285-14628-16073-17629-19308-21121-23083-25209-27510
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m004292617712594340942275059591468017729870697401083912011132661461316061176211930321119230852521427518
Retained Cash Flow, $m59030225321318015313011195816959504235292418141062-2-5-8
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m13682
Cash available for distribution, $m1641779200000000000000000000000
Discount rate, %4.905.155.405.675.966.256.576.897.247.607.988.388.809.249.7010.1910.7011.2311.7912.3813.0013.6514.3315.0515.80
PV of cash for distribution, $m1565071600000000000000000000000
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %1001001008971513319105210000000000000