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Intrinsic Value of Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. (PK)

Previous Close$10.90
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$10.90

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of 2024-12-31.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %-3.7-3.3-2.9-2.5-2.1-1.7-1.4-1.1-0.8-0.5-0.20.10.30.50.81.01.21.41.51.71.92.02.22.32.5
Revenue, $2503242123522294224622072177215321372126212221232129214121572178220322332268230723502398245025072569
Variable operating expenses, $m596576560546535525518512509506505505507509513518524532540549559571583597611
Fixed operating expenses, $m1725187120302203239025932814305333133594390042314591498154045864636269037490812688179566103801126212219
Total operating expenses, $m23212447259027492925311833323565382241004405473650985490591763826886743580308675937610137109631185912830
Operating income, $m182-26-238-455-679-911-1155-1412-1684-1974-2283-2613-2968-3350-3761-4204-4683-5201-5762-6369-7026-7739-8512-9351-10262
EBITDA, $m4392211-223-452-690-937-1197-1472-1763-2073-2404-2759-3139-3549-3991-4468-4984-5541-6145-6798-7507-8276-9109-10014
Interest expense (income), $m93427221713107543333467912151822253034
Earnings before tax, $m173-61-265-476-695-924-1165-1420-1690-1978-2286-2616-2971-3353-3765-4210-4691-5211-5773-6383-7044-7761-8538-9381-10296
Tax expense, $m47000000000000000000000000
Net income, $m127-61-265-476-695-924-1165-1420-1690-1978-2286-2616-2971-3353-3765-4210-4691-5211-5773-6383-7044-7761-8538-9381-10296

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m8585830480687869770575727466738673297293727872827304734373987470755776607779791280618225840586008812
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m8585830480687869770575727466738673297293727872827304734373987470755776607779791280618225840586008812
Average production assets, $m7341710168996729658964746384631562676236622362276245627963266387646265506651676668937033718773547535
Working capital, $m173167162158155152150149147147146146147148149150152154156159162165169173177
Total debt, $m8526845424233242441811329877687083107140183235297368448538636744861988
Total liabilities, $m5151498348414722462345434480443143974376436743694382440644394482453445964667474748374935504351605287
Total equity, $m3434332232273148308230292986295429312917291129132921293729592988302330643111316532243290336234403525
Debt-to-equity ratio0.0660.2560.2120.1720.1370.1070.0820.0610.0450.0340.0260.0230.0240.0280.0360.0470.0610.0770.0960.1160.1390.1630.1890.2160.244
Adjusted equity ratio0.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.400

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m127-61-265-476-695-924-1165-1420-1690-1978-2286-2616-2971-3353-3765-4210-4691-5211-5773-6383-7044-7761-8538-9381-10296
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m257247239232227222218215213211210210210210211213215218221224228232237242248
Funds from operations, $m383187-26-244-469-702-947-1205-1477-1767-2076-2407-2761-3143-3554-3997-4475-4993-5553-6159-6816-7529-8301-9139-10048
Change in working capital, $m-7-6-5-4-3-3-2-2-1-1000111222333444
Cash from operations, $m390192-22-240-466-700-945-1203-1476-1766-2076-2407-2762-3144-3555-3998-4477-4995-5555-6162-6819-7532-8305-9143-10053
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-257-247-239-232-227-222-218-215-213-211-210-210-210-210-211-213-215-218-221-224-228-232-237-242-248
New CAPEX, $m00000000000-3-19-33-48-61-75-88-101-114-127-140-154-167-181
Total CAPEX, $m-257-247-239-232-227-222-218-215-213-211-210-213-228-244-259-274-290-306-322-338-355-373-391-409-429
Free cash flow, $m133-55-261-472-692-922-1163-1418-1689-1977-2286-2619-2990-3387-3814-4273-4767-5301-5877-6500-7174-7904-8695-9552-10481
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m0018540964087911291392167019662281262129993403383643014802534259246554723479708767963010566
Retained Cash Flow, $m-28511295796653423223146-1-9-16-22-29-35-41-47-53-60-66-72-78-85
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m496
Cash available for distribution, $m3443500000000000000000000000
Discount rate, %4.905.155.405.675.966.256.576.897.247.607.988.388.809.249.7010.1910.7011.2311.7912.3813.0013.6514.3315.0515.80
PV of cash for distribution, $m3283100000000000000000000000
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %10010093786143281795210000000000000