Fiscal year | | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 | 2049 |
INCOME STATEMENT |
Revenue growth rate, % | | -3.7 | -3.3 | -2.9 | -2.5 | -2.1 | -1.7 | -1.4 | -1.1 | -0.8 | -0.5 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
Revenue, $ | | 2503 | 2421 | 2352 | 2294 | 2246 | 2207 | 2177 | 2153 | 2137 | 2126 | 2122 | 2123 | 2129 | 2141 | 2157 | 2178 | 2203 | 2233 | 2268 | 2307 | 2350 | 2398 | 2450 | 2507 | 2569 |
Variable operating expenses, $m | | 596 | 576 | 560 | 546 | 535 | 525 | 518 | 512 | 509 | 506 | 505 | 505 | 507 | 509 | 513 | 518 | 524 | 532 | 540 | 549 | 559 | 571 | 583 | 597 | 611 |
Fixed operating expenses, $m | | 1725 | 1871 | 2030 | 2203 | 2390 | 2593 | 2814 | 3053 | 3313 | 3594 | 3900 | 4231 | 4591 | 4981 | 5404 | 5864 | 6362 | 6903 | 7490 | 8126 | 8817 | 9566 | 10380 | 11262 | 12219 |
Total operating expenses, $m | | 2321 | 2447 | 2590 | 2749 | 2925 | 3118 | 3332 | 3565 | 3822 | 4100 | 4405 | 4736 | 5098 | 5490 | 5917 | 6382 | 6886 | 7435 | 8030 | 8675 | 9376 | 10137 | 10963 | 11859 | 12830 |
Operating income, $m | | 182 | -26 | -238 | -455 | -679 | -911 | -1155 | -1412 | -1684 | -1974 | -2283 | -2613 | -2968 | -3350 | -3761 | -4204 | -4683 | -5201 | -5762 | -6369 | -7026 | -7739 | -8512 | -9351 | -10262 |
EBITDA, $m | | 439 | 221 | 1 | -223 | -452 | -690 | -937 | -1197 | -1472 | -1763 | -2073 | -2404 | -2759 | -3139 | -3549 | -3991 | -4468 | -4984 | -5541 | -6145 | -6798 | -7507 | -8276 | -9109 | -10014 |
Interest expense (income), $m | | 9 | 34 | 27 | 22 | 17 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 22 | 25 | 30 | 34 |
Earnings before tax, $m | | 173 | -61 | -265 | -476 | -695 | -924 | -1165 | -1420 | -1690 | -1978 | -2286 | -2616 | -2971 | -3353 | -3765 | -4210 | -4691 | -5211 | -5773 | -6383 | -7044 | -7761 | -8538 | -9381 | -10296 |
Tax expense, $m | | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Net income, $m | | 127 | -61 | -265 | -476 | -695 | -924 | -1165 | -1420 | -1690 | -1978 | -2286 | -2616 | -2971 | -3353 | -3765 | -4210 | -4691 | -5211 | -5773 | -6383 | -7044 | -7761 | -8538 | -9381 | -10296 |
BALANCE SHEET |
Cash and short-term investments, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total assets, $m | | 8585 | 8304 | 8068 | 7869 | 7705 | 7572 | 7466 | 7386 | 7329 | 7293 | 7278 | 7282 | 7304 | 7343 | 7398 | 7470 | 7557 | 7660 | 7779 | 7912 | 8061 | 8225 | 8405 | 8600 | 8812 |
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m | | 8585 | 8304 | 8068 | 7869 | 7705 | 7572 | 7466 | 7386 | 7329 | 7293 | 7278 | 7282 | 7304 | 7343 | 7398 | 7470 | 7557 | 7660 | 7779 | 7912 | 8061 | 8225 | 8405 | 8600 | 8812 |
Average production assets, $m | | 7341 | 7101 | 6899 | 6729 | 6589 | 6474 | 6384 | 6315 | 6267 | 6236 | 6223 | 6227 | 6245 | 6279 | 6326 | 6387 | 6462 | 6550 | 6651 | 6766 | 6893 | 7033 | 7187 | 7354 | 7535 |
Working capital, $m | | 173 | 167 | 162 | 158 | 155 | 152 | 150 | 149 | 147 | 147 | 146 | 146 | 147 | 148 | 149 | 150 | 152 | 154 | 156 | 159 | 162 | 165 | 169 | 173 | 177 |
Total debt, $m | | 852 | 684 | 542 | 423 | 324 | 244 | 181 | 132 | 98 | 77 | 68 | 70 | 83 | 107 | 140 | 183 | 235 | 297 | 368 | 448 | 538 | 636 | 744 | 861 | 988 |
Total liabilities, $m | | 5151 | 4983 | 4841 | 4722 | 4623 | 4543 | 4480 | 4431 | 4397 | 4376 | 4367 | 4369 | 4382 | 4406 | 4439 | 4482 | 4534 | 4596 | 4667 | 4747 | 4837 | 4935 | 5043 | 5160 | 5287 |
Total equity, $m | | 3434 | 3322 | 3227 | 3148 | 3082 | 3029 | 2986 | 2954 | 2931 | 2917 | 2911 | 2913 | 2921 | 2937 | 2959 | 2988 | 3023 | 3064 | 3111 | 3165 | 3224 | 3290 | 3362 | 3440 | 3525 |
Debt-to-equity ratio | | 0.066 | 0.256 | 0.212 | 0.172 | 0.137 | 0.107 | 0.082 | 0.061 | 0.045 | 0.034 | 0.026 | 0.023 | 0.024 | 0.028 | 0.036 | 0.047 | 0.061 | 0.077 | 0.096 | 0.116 | 0.139 | 0.163 | 0.189 | 0.216 | 0.244 |
Adjusted equity ratio | | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 |
CASH FLOW |
Net income, $m | | 127 | -61 | -265 | -476 | -695 | -924 | -1165 | -1420 | -1690 | -1978 | -2286 | -2616 | -2971 | -3353 | -3765 | -4210 | -4691 | -5211 | -5773 | -6383 | -7044 | -7761 | -8538 | -9381 | -10296 |
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m | | 257 | 247 | 239 | 232 | 227 | 222 | 218 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 210 | 210 | 210 | 210 | 211 | 213 | 215 | 218 | 221 | 224 | 228 | 232 | 237 | 242 | 248 |
Funds from operations, $m | | 383 | 187 | -26 | -244 | -469 | -702 | -947 | -1205 | -1477 | -1767 | -2076 | -2407 | -2761 | -3143 | -3554 | -3997 | -4475 | -4993 | -5553 | -6159 | -6816 | -7529 | -8301 | -9139 | -10048 |
Change in working capital, $m | | -7 | -6 | -5 | -4 | -3 | -3 | -2 | -2 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Cash from operations, $m | | 390 | 192 | -22 | -240 | -466 | -700 | -945 | -1203 | -1476 | -1766 | -2076 | -2407 | -2762 | -3144 | -3555 | -3998 | -4477 | -4995 | -5555 | -6162 | -6819 | -7532 | -8305 | -9143 | -10053 |
Maintenance CAPEX, $m | | -257 | -247 | -239 | -232 | -227 | -222 | -218 | -215 | -213 | -211 | -210 | -210 | -210 | -210 | -211 | -213 | -215 | -218 | -221 | -224 | -228 | -232 | -237 | -242 | -248 |
New CAPEX, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | -19 | -33 | -48 | -61 | -75 | -88 | -101 | -114 | -127 | -140 | -154 | -167 | -181 |
Total CAPEX, $m | | -257 | -247 | -239 | -232 | -227 | -222 | -218 | -215 | -213 | -211 | -210 | -213 | -228 | -244 | -259 | -274 | -290 | -306 | -322 | -338 | -355 | -373 | -391 | -409 | -429 |
Free cash flow, $m | | 133 | -55 | -261 | -472 | -692 | -922 | -1163 | -1418 | -1689 | -1977 | -2286 | -2619 | -2990 | -3387 | -3814 | -4273 | -4767 | -5301 | -5877 | -6500 | -7174 | -7904 | -8695 | -9552 | -10481 |
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m | | 0 | 0 | 185 | 409 | 640 | 879 | 1129 | 1392 | 1670 | 1966 | 2281 | 2621 | 2999 | 3403 | 3836 | 4301 | 4802 | 5342 | 5924 | 6554 | 7234 | 7970 | 8767 | 9630 | 10566 |
Retained Cash Flow, $m | | -285 | 112 | 95 | 79 | 66 | 53 | 42 | 32 | 23 | 14 | 6 | -1 | -9 | -16 | -22 | -29 | -35 | -41 | -47 | -53 | -60 | -66 | -72 | -78 | -85 |
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m | | 496 |
Cash available for distribution, $m | | 344 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Discount rate, % | | 4.90 | 5.15 | 5.40 | 5.67 | 5.96 | 6.25 | 6.57 | 6.89 | 7.24 | 7.60 | 7.98 | 8.38 | 8.80 | 9.24 | 9.70 | 10.19 | 10.70 | 11.23 | 11.79 | 12.38 | 13.00 | 13.65 | 14.33 | 15.05 | 15.80 |
PV of cash for distribution, $m | | 328 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Current shareholders' claim on cash, % | | 100 | 100 | 93 | 78 | 61 | 43 | 28 | 17 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |