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Intrinsic Value of Progress Software Corporation (PRGS)

Previous Close$49.62
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$49.62

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Progress Software Corporation operates in the enterprise software industry, specializing in application development, deployment, and data connectivity solutions. The company generates revenue primarily through software licenses, cloud-based subscriptions, and maintenance services, catering to businesses seeking to streamline digital transformation. Its flagship products, including OpenEdge and Chef, serve mid-market and large enterprises across sectors like financial services, healthcare, and manufacturing. Progress differentiates itself through a hybrid cloud approach, enabling seamless integration between legacy systems and modern architectures. The company holds a niche but strong position in the DevOps and data integration markets, competing against larger players by focusing on agility and customer-specific solutions. Its partnerships with major cloud providers and emphasis on developer tools reinforce its relevance in a rapidly evolving tech landscape.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Progress Software reported revenue of $753.4 million for FY 2024, with net income of $68.4 million, reflecting a net margin of approximately 9.1%. Diluted EPS stood at $1.54, supported by disciplined cost management. Operating cash flow was robust at $211.5 million, though capital expenditures were modest at $5.2 million, indicating capital-light operations. The company’s ability to convert revenue into cash underscores operational efficiency.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings power is driven by recurring revenue streams from subscriptions and maintenance, which provide stability. With operating cash flow significantly exceeding net income, Progress demonstrates strong capital efficiency. Its low capex requirements further highlight a scalable model, allowing reinvestment in growth initiatives or debt reduction. The diluted EPS growth suggests effective use of equity capital.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Progress holds $118.1 million in cash and equivalents but carries a substantial debt load of $1.56 billion, reflecting leveraged growth strategies. The debt-to-equity ratio warrants monitoring, though strong cash flow generation mitigates near-term liquidity risks. Shareholders’ equity remains pressured by high leverage, but the company’s ability to service debt through operational cash flow provides a buffer.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Revenue growth trends appear steady, supported by hybrid cloud adoption and cross-selling opportunities. The company pays a dividend of $0.35 per share, signaling confidence in cash flow sustainability. However, the payout ratio remains conservative, prioritizing balance sheet flexibility. Future growth may hinge on strategic acquisitions or organic expansion in high-margin segments.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Trading at a P/E ratio derived from $1.54 EPS, Progress is valued in line with mid-cap software peers. Investors likely price in moderate growth expectations, balancing recurring revenue strengths against competitive pressures. The market may reward further debt reduction or margin expansion, though macroeconomic headwinds could temper multiples.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Progress benefits from entrenched customer relationships and a diversified product suite, but its outlook depends on execution in cloud migration and competitive differentiation. Strategic partnerships and R&D investments could enhance its market position. Near-term challenges include managing leverage, while long-term opportunities lie in scaling high-growth segments like DevOps and AI-driven automation.

Sources

10-K filing, company investor relations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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