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Intrinsic Value of Republic Services, Inc. (RSG)

Previous Close$241.14
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$241.14

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Republic Services, Inc. is a leading provider of non-hazardous solid waste collection, recycling, and disposal services in the U.S., operating within the environmental services sector. The company generates revenue primarily through recurring waste collection contracts, landfill operations, and recycling services, serving residential, commercial, and industrial customers. Its vertically integrated model ensures control over collection, transfer, and disposal, enhancing cost efficiency and service reliability. Republic Services holds a strong market position as the second-largest waste management company in the U.S., competing closely with industry leader Waste Management. The company differentiates itself through advanced recycling capabilities, sustainability initiatives, and a focus on customer retention. Its extensive network of landfills and recycling facilities provides a competitive moat, while regulatory expertise ensures compliance in a highly scrutinized industry. Republic Services benefits from steady demand driven by population growth and urbanization, though it faces pricing pressures and cyclical exposure in certain segments. Strategic acquisitions and organic growth initiatives further solidify its market presence.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Republic Services reported $16.03 billion in revenue for FY 2024, with net income of $2.04 billion, reflecting a robust 12.7% net margin. Diluted EPS stood at $6.49, demonstrating strong profitability. Operating cash flow of $3.94 billion underscores efficient operations, while capital expenditures of $1.86 billion indicate ongoing investments in fleet modernization and facility upgrades. The company’s disciplined cost management and pricing power contribute to stable margins.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings power is supported by high-margin landfill operations and recurring revenue streams from waste collection contracts. Capital efficiency is evident in its ability to generate substantial operating cash flow relative to capex, enabling debt reduction and shareholder returns. Republic Services’ asset-light approach in certain segments enhances returns on invested capital, though landfill investments remain capital-intensive.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Republic Services maintains a solid balance sheet with $74 million in cash and equivalents, though total debt of $12.96 billion reflects leverage from strategic acquisitions. The company’s strong cash flow generation supports debt servicing and further deleveraging. Liquidity remains adequate, with manageable near-term maturities and access to credit facilities.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Republic Services has demonstrated consistent growth through acquisitions and organic volume increases, supported by pricing adjustments. The company pays a reliable dividend, with $2.19 per share in FY 2024, reflecting a commitment to returning capital to shareholders. Future growth is expected to focus on recycling innovation and sustainability-driven services.

Valuation And Market Expectations

The market values Republic Services for its defensive business model and steady cash flows, trading at a premium to broader industrials. Investors anticipate mid-single-digit revenue growth and margin stability, driven by pricing power and operational efficiency. Valuation multiples reflect confidence in the company’s ability to navigate regulatory and economic cycles.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Republic Services’ strategic advantages include its extensive landfill network, recycling expertise, and scale-driven cost efficiencies. The outlook remains positive, with opportunities in sustainability services and waste-to-energy initiatives. Regulatory tailwinds and urbanization trends support long-term demand, though competitive pressures and input cost volatility pose risks.

Sources

10-K filings, investor presentations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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