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Intrinsic Value of Synchrony Financial (SYF)

Previous Close$52.43
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$52.43

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of 2024-12-31.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %22.621.720.920.119.318.617.917.316.716.115.515.014.514.013.613.212.712.412.011.611.311.010.710.410.1
Revenue, $1151514016169432034624280288013396739840464845396562350717098211493638106357120348135687152457170738190614212172235497260682287818316999
Variable operating expenses, $m8705105961280915382183562177425679301193514240797471365421262078707918040690983102580115257129078144104160402178036197076217590239652
Fixed operating expenses, $m-3220-3493-3790-4112-4462-4841-5253-5699-6184-6709-7280-7898-8570-9298-10089-10946-11876-12886-13981-15170-16459-17858-19376-21023-22810
Total operating expenses, $m5485710390191127013894169332042624420289583408839856463145350861493703178003790704102371115097128934143943160178177700196567216842
Operating income, $m60296913792490771038611869135411542017526198772249325395286063214636040403114498450085556416168068229753208298391251100158
EBITDA, $m62587194826694901088312461142441624918498210112381026917303553415038325429064792153396593616584672880804978872997611107181
Interest expense (income), $m618532955115723597162576586696173897872841690259706104631130112226132431435915578169071835319920216172344825421
Earnings before tax, $m541115842414335444165612695584591013712005140771637018900216832473928085317413572740063447724987655399613666780274736
Tax expense, $m14614286529051192151518782284273732413801442051035855668075838570964610817120881346714958165691830720179
Net income, $m3950115717622448322340975077617574008764102761195013797158291806020502231712608129246326843641040441447974949654558

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m232592831134224411004904658178686148047793898109009125946144852165870189150214842243102274089307963344891385041428586475705526578581391640339
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m232592831134224411004904658178686148047793898109009125946144852165870189150214842243102274089307963344891385041428586475705526578581391640339
Average production assets, $m14051710206724822962351441444861567165847607874810018114241297614682165541860020830232552588528731318033511438674
Working capital, $m-2879-3504-4236-5087-6070-7200-8492-9960-11621-13491-15587-17927-20528-23410-26589-30087-33922-38114-42684-47654-53043-58874-65170-71954-79250
Total debt, $m133217137763143085149273156425164643174035184713196791210391225634242649261566282518305641331075358963389450422685458820498011540417586203635535688588
Total liabilities, $m20934254803080236990441425236061752724308450898108113351130366149283170235193358218792246680277167310402346537385728428134473920523252576305
Total equity, $m23262831342241104905581868618048939010901125951448516587189152148424310274093079634489385044285947570526585813964034
Debt-to-equity ratio6.64847.05440.25334.81430.43526.88723.99621.62519.67218.05316.70515.57714.62913.82913.15012.57312.07911.65611.29210.97810.70510.46910.26310.0839.925
Adjusted equity ratio0.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.100

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m3950115717622448322340975077617574008764102761195013797158291806020502231712608129246326843641040441447974949654558
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m2292813424134965927038299721134131715211750200422852595293633113720416646515177574663617023
Funds from operations, $m4179143821042862372046895780700483729898115931347115546178322034423097261082939132966368504106145618505435585661580
Change in working capital, $m-531-625-732-851-984-1130-1292-1468-1661-1870-2096-2340-2601-2881-3180-3498-3835-4192-4570-4969-5389-5831-6296-6784-7295
Cash from operations, $m471020632836371247035819707184721003311768136891581118148207142352426595299433358437536418194645051450568396264068876
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-229-281-342-413-496-592-703-829-972-1134-1317-1521-1750-2004-2285-2595-2936-3311-3720-4166-4651-5177-5746-6361-7023
New CAPEX, $m-259-305-357-415-480-552-630-717-811-913-1023-1142-1269-1406-1552-1707-1871-2046-2230-2425-2630-2846-3073-3311-3560
Total CAPEX, $m-488-586-699-829-976-1144-1333-1545-1783-2047-2340-2663-3019-3410-3836-4302-4808-5357-5950-6591-7281-8023-8819-9671-10583
Free cash flow, $m4222147721372884372746755738692782519721113501314815129173041968822293251352822731586352283916943427480215296958293
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m0000000000000000000000000
Retained Cash Flow, $m-85598-505-591-688-795-913-1044-1186-1342-1511-1694-1891-2102-2328-2569-2826-3099-3387-3693-4015-4355-4712-5087-5481-5895
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m99852
Cash available for distribution, $m184769721545219629323762469557406909821096561125713027149761711819467220362484027893312133481438715429334748852398
Discount rate, %4.905.155.405.675.966.256.576.897.247.607.988.388.809.249.7010.1910.7011.2311.7912.3813.0013.6514.3315.0515.80
PV of cash for distribution, $m1761387913201761219626143008336736833946414942864352434642684123391636573355302326732319197116421338
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100