investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic Value of The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX)

Previous Close$125.86
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$125.86

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2025 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

The TJX Companies, Inc. operates as a leading off-price retailer in the apparel and home fashion sectors, leveraging a unique opportunistic buying model to offer branded merchandise at significant discounts. The company's core brands—T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, and Sierra—cater to value-conscious consumers across North America and Europe, capitalizing on excess inventory from manufacturers and retailers. TJX's decentralized buying strategy allows it to adapt quickly to market trends, ensuring a constantly refreshed product assortment. Its off-price model provides a competitive edge in both economic downturns and expansions, as consumers prioritize value without sacrificing brand appeal. With a vast network of over 4,800 stores, TJX maintains strong relationships with suppliers, securing high-quality inventory at favorable terms. The company's ability to undercut traditional retail pricing while maintaining healthy margins underscores its resilient market position. TJX's expansion into e-commerce and international markets further diversifies its revenue streams, reinforcing its dominance in the off-price retail segment.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

TJX reported revenue of $56.36 billion for FY 2025, with net income reaching $4.86 billion, reflecting a robust 8.6% net margin. Diluted EPS stood at $4.26, demonstrating consistent profitability. Operating cash flow was strong at $6.12 billion, highlighting efficient working capital management. The absence of reported capital expenditures suggests disciplined spending, though further context on reinvestment strategies would be needed for a complete assessment.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

TJX's earnings power is evident in its ability to generate substantial operating cash flow relative to revenue, indicating effective cost control and inventory turnover. The company's capital efficiency is supported by its high inventory turnover and lean operating model, which minimizes fixed costs. However, the lack of disclosed capital expenditures limits a full evaluation of reinvestment efficiency.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

TJX maintains a solid balance sheet with $5.34 billion in cash and equivalents, providing liquidity for operations and strategic initiatives. Total debt of $12.78 billion suggests moderate leverage, though the company's strong cash flow generation likely supports manageable debt service. The absence of capital expenditure data precludes a detailed analysis of free cash flow, but the healthy cash position indicates financial flexibility.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

TJX has demonstrated consistent growth, driven by store expansion and same-store sales increases. The company's dividend policy, with a payout of $1.46 per share, reflects a commitment to returning capital to shareholders while retaining sufficient funds for growth. The balance between reinvestment and shareholder returns aligns with TJX's stable cash flow profile and long-term growth strategy.

Valuation And Market Expectations

TJX's valuation reflects its position as a resilient retailer with a proven off-price model. Market expectations likely incorporate steady revenue growth and margin stability, given the company's ability to navigate economic cycles. The absence of capital expenditure data limits a detailed discounted cash flow analysis, but TJX's earnings multiple suggests investor confidence in its sustainable profitability.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

TJX's strategic advantages include its flexible sourcing model, strong supplier relationships, and value-focused customer base. The outlook remains positive, supported by expansion opportunities in underpenetrated markets and potential e-commerce growth. The company's ability to adapt to changing consumer preferences and economic conditions positions it well for sustained success in the competitive retail landscape.

Sources

10-K filing, company investor relations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044204520462047204820492050

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %NaN
Revenue, $NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $mNaN
Operating income, $mNaN
EBITDA, $mNaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $mNaN
Tax expense, $mNaN
Net income, $mNaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $mNaN
Total assets, $mNaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $mNaN
Average production assets, $mNaN
Working capital, $mNaN
Total debt, $mNaN
Total liabilities, $mNaN
Total equity, $mNaN
Debt-to-equity ratioNaN
Adjusted equity ratioNaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $mNaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $mNaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $mNaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $mNaN
Free cash flow, $mNaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $mNaN
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
HomeMenuAccount