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Intrinsic Value of Tapestry, Inc. (TPR)

Previous Close$78.44
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$78.44

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of 2024-06-29.

Quarterly Revenue – actual and YoY change

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %0.20.40.70.91.11.31.51.61.82.02.12.32.42.52.72.82.93.03.13.23.33.43.43.53.6
Revenue, $668567146759681968936982708472017332747776367809799782008418865189019167945197521007210411107701115011551
Variable operating expenses, $m58825908594860006066614462346337645265796719687270377216740776137833806783178582886491629478981210165
Fixed operating expenses, $m724785852925100310881181128113901508163717761927209022682461267028973143341037004015435647265128
Total operating expenses, $m66066693680069257069723274157618784280878356864889649306967510074105031096411460119921256413177138341453815293
Operating income, $m7820-41-106-176-251-331-417-510-611-720-839-967-1106-1258-1423-1602-1797-2009-2240-2492-2765-3064-3388-3742
EBITDA, $m30825119012759-13-90-173-262-359-463-576-698-831-975-1133-1304-1490-1693-1915-2156-2418-2705-3017-3358
Interest expense (income), $m351683684686688692695700705711717724731739748758768778790802815829844859876
Earnings before tax, $m-272-662-725-792-864-942-1026-1117-1215-1322-1437-1562-1698-1846-2006-2180-2369-2575-2799-3042-3307-3594-3907-4247-4617
Tax expense, $m0000000000000000000000000
Net income, $m-272-662-725-792-864-942-1026-1117-1215-1322-1437-1562-1698-1846-2006-2180-2369-2575-2799-3042-3307-3594-3907-4247-4617

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m802180578111818282728378850186418798897291639371959698391010110382106811100111341117031208712493129241338013861
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m802180578111818282728378850186418798897291639371959698391010110382106811100111341117031208712493129241338013861
Average production assets, $m3108312231433171320532463294334834093477355136313718381339144023413942634395453546844841500851855371
Working capital, $m1691169917101725174417661792182218551892193219762023207421302189225223192391246725482634272528212922
Total debt, $m17066170981714717211172911738717498176241776517922180931828118484187031893819190194601974820054203802072521091214792188922322
Total liabilities, $m72197251730073647444754076517777791880758246843486368856909193439613990110207105331087811244116321204212475
Total equity, $m80280681181882783885086488089791693796098410101038106811001134117012091249129213381386
Debt-to-equity ratio10.92821.18321.08120.95620.80820.63920.45320.25020.03219.80119.56019.30919.05018.78518.51518.24217.96617.69017.41217.13616.86116.58916.31916.05315.792
Adjusted equity ratio0.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.100

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m-272-662-725-792-864-942-1026-1117-1215-1322-1437-1562-1698-1846-2006-2180-2369-2575-2799-3042-3307-3594-3907-4247-4617
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m230230231233235237240244248253258263269275282290298307316326336347359371384
Funds from operations, $m-43-432-494-559-630-705-786-873-967-1069-1180-1299-1429-1570-1724-1890-2071-2269-2483-2717-2971-3247-3549-3876-4233
Change in working capital, $m3711151922263033374044485155596367727681869196102
Cash from operations, $m-46-440-505-574-648-727-812-903-1000-1106-1220-1343-1477-1622-1779-1949-2135-2336-2555-2793-3052-3333-3639-3973-4335
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-230-230-231-233-235-237-240-244-248-253-258-263-269-275-282-290-298-307-316-326-336-347-359-371-384
New CAPEX, $m-6-14-21-28-35-41-48-54-61-67-74-81-87-94-101-109-116-124-132-140-149-158-167-177-187
Total CAPEX, $m-236-244-252-261-269-279-288-298-309-320-331-344-356-370-384-399-414-430-448-466-485-505-525-547-571
Free cash flow, $m-282-683-757-835-918-1006-1100-1201-1309-1426-1551-1687-1833-1991-2163-2348-2549-2767-3003-3259-3536-3838-4165-4520-4906
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m068776384292710171112121513251443157017081856201621892376257927993037329535753878420845664954
Retained Cash Flow, $m-3696-4-5-7-9-11-12-14-16-17-19-21-23-24-26-28-30-32-34-36-38-41-43-46-48
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m5790
Cash available for distribution, $m1813000000000000000000000000
Discount rate, %4.905.155.405.675.966.256.576.897.247.607.988.388.809.249.7010.1910.7011.2311.7912.3813.0013.6514.3315.0515.80
PV of cash for distribution, $m1728000000000000000000000000
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %10088766555463831252015129754321110000