Fiscal year | | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 | 2049 |
INCOME STATEMENT |
Revenue growth rate, % | | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.6 |
Revenue, $ | | 6685 | 6714 | 6759 | 6819 | 6893 | 6982 | 7084 | 7201 | 7332 | 7477 | 7636 | 7809 | 7997 | 8200 | 8418 | 8651 | 8901 | 9167 | 9451 | 9752 | 10072 | 10411 | 10770 | 11150 | 11551 |
Variable operating expenses, $m | | 5882 | 5908 | 5948 | 6000 | 6066 | 6144 | 6234 | 6337 | 6452 | 6579 | 6719 | 6872 | 7037 | 7216 | 7407 | 7613 | 7833 | 8067 | 8317 | 8582 | 8864 | 9162 | 9478 | 9812 | 10165 |
Fixed operating expenses, $m | | 724 | 785 | 852 | 925 | 1003 | 1088 | 1181 | 1281 | 1390 | 1508 | 1637 | 1776 | 1927 | 2090 | 2268 | 2461 | 2670 | 2897 | 3143 | 3410 | 3700 | 4015 | 4356 | 4726 | 5128 |
Total operating expenses, $m | | 6606 | 6693 | 6800 | 6925 | 7069 | 7232 | 7415 | 7618 | 7842 | 8087 | 8356 | 8648 | 8964 | 9306 | 9675 | 10074 | 10503 | 10964 | 11460 | 11992 | 12564 | 13177 | 13834 | 14538 | 15293 |
Operating income, $m | | 78 | 20 | -41 | -106 | -176 | -251 | -331 | -417 | -510 | -611 | -720 | -839 | -967 | -1106 | -1258 | -1423 | -1602 | -1797 | -2009 | -2240 | -2492 | -2765 | -3064 | -3388 | -3742 |
EBITDA, $m | | 308 | 251 | 190 | 127 | 59 | -13 | -90 | -173 | -262 | -359 | -463 | -576 | -698 | -831 | -975 | -1133 | -1304 | -1490 | -1693 | -1915 | -2156 | -2418 | -2705 | -3017 | -3358 |
Interest expense (income), $m | | 351 | 683 | 684 | 686 | 688 | 692 | 695 | 700 | 705 | 711 | 717 | 724 | 731 | 739 | 748 | 758 | 768 | 778 | 790 | 802 | 815 | 829 | 844 | 859 | 876 |
Earnings before tax, $m | | -272 | -662 | -725 | -792 | -864 | -942 | -1026 | -1117 | -1215 | -1322 | -1437 | -1562 | -1698 | -1846 | -2006 | -2180 | -2369 | -2575 | -2799 | -3042 | -3307 | -3594 | -3907 | -4247 | -4617 |
Tax expense, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Net income, $m | | -272 | -662 | -725 | -792 | -864 | -942 | -1026 | -1117 | -1215 | -1322 | -1437 | -1562 | -1698 | -1846 | -2006 | -2180 | -2369 | -2575 | -2799 | -3042 | -3307 | -3594 | -3907 | -4247 | -4617 |
BALANCE SHEET |
Cash and short-term investments, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total assets, $m | | 8021 | 8057 | 8111 | 8182 | 8272 | 8378 | 8501 | 8641 | 8798 | 8972 | 9163 | 9371 | 9596 | 9839 | 10101 | 10382 | 10681 | 11001 | 11341 | 11703 | 12087 | 12493 | 12924 | 13380 | 13861 |
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m | | 8021 | 8057 | 8111 | 8182 | 8272 | 8378 | 8501 | 8641 | 8798 | 8972 | 9163 | 9371 | 9596 | 9839 | 10101 | 10382 | 10681 | 11001 | 11341 | 11703 | 12087 | 12493 | 12924 | 13380 | 13861 |
Average production assets, $m | | 3108 | 3122 | 3143 | 3171 | 3205 | 3246 | 3294 | 3348 | 3409 | 3477 | 3551 | 3631 | 3718 | 3813 | 3914 | 4023 | 4139 | 4263 | 4395 | 4535 | 4684 | 4841 | 5008 | 5185 | 5371 |
Working capital, $m | | 1691 | 1699 | 1710 | 1725 | 1744 | 1766 | 1792 | 1822 | 1855 | 1892 | 1932 | 1976 | 2023 | 2074 | 2130 | 2189 | 2252 | 2319 | 2391 | 2467 | 2548 | 2634 | 2725 | 2821 | 2922 |
Total debt, $m | | 17066 | 17098 | 17147 | 17211 | 17291 | 17387 | 17498 | 17624 | 17765 | 17922 | 18093 | 18281 | 18484 | 18703 | 18938 | 19190 | 19460 | 19748 | 20054 | 20380 | 20725 | 21091 | 21479 | 21889 | 22322 |
Total liabilities, $m | | 7219 | 7251 | 7300 | 7364 | 7444 | 7540 | 7651 | 7777 | 7918 | 8075 | 8246 | 8434 | 8636 | 8856 | 9091 | 9343 | 9613 | 9901 | 10207 | 10533 | 10878 | 11244 | 11632 | 12042 | 12475 |
Total equity, $m | | 802 | 806 | 811 | 818 | 827 | 838 | 850 | 864 | 880 | 897 | 916 | 937 | 960 | 984 | 1010 | 1038 | 1068 | 1100 | 1134 | 1170 | 1209 | 1249 | 1292 | 1338 | 1386 |
Debt-to-equity ratio | | 10.928 | 21.183 | 21.081 | 20.956 | 20.808 | 20.639 | 20.453 | 20.250 | 20.032 | 19.801 | 19.560 | 19.309 | 19.050 | 18.785 | 18.515 | 18.242 | 17.966 | 17.690 | 17.412 | 17.136 | 16.861 | 16.589 | 16.319 | 16.053 | 15.792 |
Adjusted equity ratio | | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 |
CASH FLOW |
Net income, $m | | -272 | -662 | -725 | -792 | -864 | -942 | -1026 | -1117 | -1215 | -1322 | -1437 | -1562 | -1698 | -1846 | -2006 | -2180 | -2369 | -2575 | -2799 | -3042 | -3307 | -3594 | -3907 | -4247 | -4617 |
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m | | 230 | 230 | 231 | 233 | 235 | 237 | 240 | 244 | 248 | 253 | 258 | 263 | 269 | 275 | 282 | 290 | 298 | 307 | 316 | 326 | 336 | 347 | 359 | 371 | 384 |
Funds from operations, $m | | -43 | -432 | -494 | -559 | -630 | -705 | -786 | -873 | -967 | -1069 | -1180 | -1299 | -1429 | -1570 | -1724 | -1890 | -2071 | -2269 | -2483 | -2717 | -2971 | -3247 | -3549 | -3876 | -4233 |
Change in working capital, $m | | 3 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 19 | 22 | 26 | 30 | 33 | 37 | 40 | 44 | 48 | 51 | 55 | 59 | 63 | 67 | 72 | 76 | 81 | 86 | 91 | 96 | 102 |
Cash from operations, $m | | -46 | -440 | -505 | -574 | -648 | -727 | -812 | -903 | -1000 | -1106 | -1220 | -1343 | -1477 | -1622 | -1779 | -1949 | -2135 | -2336 | -2555 | -2793 | -3052 | -3333 | -3639 | -3973 | -4335 |
Maintenance CAPEX, $m | | -230 | -230 | -231 | -233 | -235 | -237 | -240 | -244 | -248 | -253 | -258 | -263 | -269 | -275 | -282 | -290 | -298 | -307 | -316 | -326 | -336 | -347 | -359 | -371 | -384 |
New CAPEX, $m | | -6 | -14 | -21 | -28 | -35 | -41 | -48 | -54 | -61 | -67 | -74 | -81 | -87 | -94 | -101 | -109 | -116 | -124 | -132 | -140 | -149 | -158 | -167 | -177 | -187 |
Total CAPEX, $m | | -236 | -244 | -252 | -261 | -269 | -279 | -288 | -298 | -309 | -320 | -331 | -344 | -356 | -370 | -384 | -399 | -414 | -430 | -448 | -466 | -485 | -505 | -525 | -547 | -571 |
Free cash flow, $m | | -282 | -683 | -757 | -835 | -918 | -1006 | -1100 | -1201 | -1309 | -1426 | -1551 | -1687 | -1833 | -1991 | -2163 | -2348 | -2549 | -2767 | -3003 | -3259 | -3536 | -3838 | -4165 | -4520 | -4906 |
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m | | 0 | 687 | 763 | 842 | 927 | 1017 | 1112 | 1215 | 1325 | 1443 | 1570 | 1708 | 1856 | 2016 | 2189 | 2376 | 2579 | 2799 | 3037 | 3295 | 3575 | 3878 | 4208 | 4566 | 4954 |
Retained Cash Flow, $m | | -3696 | -4 | -5 | -7 | -9 | -11 | -12 | -14 | -16 | -17 | -19 | -21 | -23 | -24 | -26 | -28 | -30 | -32 | -34 | -36 | -38 | -41 | -43 | -46 | -48 |
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m | | 5790 |
Cash available for distribution, $m | | 1813 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Discount rate, % | | 4.90 | 5.15 | 5.40 | 5.67 | 5.96 | 6.25 | 6.57 | 6.89 | 7.24 | 7.60 | 7.98 | 8.38 | 8.80 | 9.24 | 9.70 | 10.19 | 10.70 | 11.23 | 11.79 | 12.38 | 13.00 | 13.65 | 14.33 | 15.05 | 15.80 |
PV of cash for distribution, $m | | 1728 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Current shareholders' claim on cash, % | | 100 | 88 | 76 | 65 | 55 | 46 | 38 | 31 | 25 | 20 | 15 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |