Fiscal year | | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 | 2049 |
INCOME STATEMENT |
Revenue growth rate, % | | 33.9 | 32.5 | 31.1 | 29.8 | 28.5 | 27.4 | 26.2 | 25.2 | 24.2 | 23.2 | 22.3 | 21.4 | 20.6 | 19.8 | 19.1 | 18.4 | 17.7 | 17.1 | 16.5 | 15.9 | 15.4 | 14.8 | 14.4 | 13.9 | 13.4 |
Revenue, $ | | 1205 | 1597 | 2093 | 2716 | 3491 | 4447 | 5613 | 7027 | 8726 | 10751 | 13149 | 15968 | 19260 | 23081 | 27488 | 32542 | 38309 | 44853 | 52245 | 60554 | 69856 | 80224 | 91736 | 104472 | 118511 |
Variable operating expenses, $m | | 241 | 319 | 419 | 543 | 698 | 889 | 1123 | 1405 | 1745 | 2150 | 2630 | 3194 | 3852 | 4616 | 5498 | 6508 | 7662 | 8971 | 10449 | 12111 | 13971 | 16045 | 18347 | 20894 | 23702 |
Fixed operating expenses, $m | | 733 | 795 | 863 | 936 | 1016 | 1102 | 1196 | 1297 | 1408 | 1527 | 1657 | 1798 | 1951 | 2117 | 2297 | 2492 | 2704 | 2934 | 3183 | 3453 | 3747 | 4065 | 4411 | 4786 | 5193 |
Total operating expenses, $m | | 974 | 1114 | 1282 | 1479 | 1714 | 1991 | 2319 | 2702 | 3153 | 3677 | 4287 | 4992 | 5803 | 6733 | 7795 | 9000 | 10366 | 11905 | 13632 | 15564 | 17718 | 20110 | 22758 | 25680 | 28895 |
Operating income, $m | | 231 | 482 | 811 | 1237 | 1777 | 2455 | 3295 | 4324 | 5573 | 7074 | 8862 | 10976 | 13457 | 16348 | 19693 | 23542 | 27943 | 32949 | 38613 | 44990 | 52138 | 60114 | 68978 | 78791 | 89616 |
EBITDA, $m | | 258 | 518 | 859 | 1299 | 1858 | 2559 | 3427 | 4491 | 5781 | 7332 | 9181 | 11367 | 13931 | 16919 | 20378 | 24357 | 28909 | 34086 | 39944 | 46540 | 53934 | 62186 | 71358 | 81513 | 92715 |
Interest expense (income), $m | | 22 | 40 | 51 | 65 | 83 | 105 | 131 | 164 | 204 | 252 | 309 | 376 | 455 | 547 | 655 | 778 | 920 | 1082 | 1266 | 1474 | 1707 | 1968 | 2259 | 2583 | 2940 |
Earnings before tax, $m | | 210 | 442 | 760 | 1171 | 1694 | 2350 | 3163 | 4160 | 5369 | 6822 | 8554 | 10601 | 13002 | 15800 | 19039 | 22763 | 27023 | 31867 | 37347 | 43516 | 50431 | 58146 | 66719 | 76209 | 86676 |
Tax expense, $m | | 57 | 119 | 205 | 316 | 457 | 635 | 854 | 1123 | 1450 | 1842 | 2309 | 2862 | 3511 | 4266 | 5140 | 6146 | 7296 | 8604 | 10084 | 11749 | 13616 | 15699 | 18014 | 20576 | 23402 |
Net income, $m | | 153 | 322 | 555 | 855 | 1237 | 1716 | 2309 | 3037 | 3919 | 4980 | 6244 | 7738 | 9492 | 11534 | 13898 | 16617 | 19727 | 23263 | 27263 | 31767 | 36814 | 42446 | 48705 | 55632 | 63273 |
BALANCE SHEET |
Cash and short-term investments, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total assets, $m | | 940 | 1245 | 1632 | 2119 | 2723 | 3468 | 4378 | 5481 | 6806 | 8386 | 10256 | 12455 | 15023 | 18003 | 21440 | 25383 | 29881 | 34985 | 40751 | 47232 | 54488 | 62575 | 71554 | 81488 | 92439 |
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m | | 940 | 1245 | 1632 | 2119 | 2723 | 3468 | 4378 | 5481 | 6806 | 8386 | 10256 | 12455 | 15023 | 18003 | 21440 | 25383 | 29881 | 34985 | 40751 | 47232 | 54488 | 62575 | 71554 | 81488 | 92439 |
Average production assets, $m | | 647 | 857 | 1124 | 1459 | 1875 | 2388 | 3014 | 3774 | 4686 | 5773 | 7061 | 8575 | 10343 | 12394 | 14761 | 17475 | 20572 | 24086 | 28055 | 32518 | 37513 | 43080 | 49262 | 56101 | 63640 |
Working capital, $m | | 39 | 51 | 67 | 87 | 112 | 142 | 180 | 225 | 279 | 344 | 421 | 511 | 616 | 739 | 880 | 1041 | 1226 | 1435 | 1672 | 1938 | 2235 | 2567 | 2936 | 3343 | 3792 |
Total debt, $m | | 1012 | 1286 | 1635 | 2072 | 2616 | 3287 | 4106 | 5099 | 6291 | 7713 | 9396 | 11375 | 13686 | 16368 | 19462 | 23010 | 27058 | 31652 | 36841 | 42675 | 49204 | 56483 | 64564 | 73505 | 83360 |
Total liabilities, $m | | 846 | 1121 | 1469 | 1907 | 2451 | 3121 | 3941 | 4933 | 6125 | 7547 | 9231 | 11210 | 13521 | 16203 | 19296 | 22845 | 26893 | 31487 | 36676 | 42509 | 49039 | 56317 | 64399 | 73339 | 83195 |
Total equity, $m | | 94 | 125 | 163 | 212 | 272 | 347 | 438 | 548 | 681 | 839 | 1026 | 1246 | 1502 | 1800 | 2144 | 2538 | 2988 | 3499 | 4075 | 4723 | 5449 | 6257 | 7155 | 8149 | 9244 |
Debt-to-equity ratio | | 5.787 | 8.124 | 7.880 | 7.716 | 7.610 | 7.544 | 7.507 | 7.492 | 7.491 | 7.502 | 7.520 | 7.544 | 7.572 | 7.602 | 7.634 | 7.667 | 7.701 | 7.734 | 7.767 | 7.800 | 7.832 | 7.863 | 7.894 | 7.923 | 7.952 |
Adjusted equity ratio | | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 |
CASH FLOW |
Net income, $m | | 153 | 322 | 555 | 855 | 1237 | 1716 | 2309 | 3037 | 3919 | 4980 | 6244 | 7738 | 9492 | 11534 | 13898 | 16617 | 19727 | 23263 | 27263 | 31767 | 36814 | 42446 | 48705 | 55632 | 63273 |
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m | | 27 | 36 | 47 | 62 | 81 | 104 | 132 | 167 | 208 | 259 | 319 | 390 | 474 | 571 | 685 | 816 | 965 | 1137 | 1331 | 1550 | 1797 | 2073 | 2380 | 2722 | 3100 |
Funds from operations, $m | | 180 | 358 | 602 | 917 | 1317 | 1819 | 2441 | 3203 | 4128 | 5239 | 6563 | 8129 | 9965 | 12106 | 14583 | 17433 | 20692 | 24399 | 28594 | 33317 | 38611 | 44519 | 51085 | 58354 | 66373 |
Change in working capital, $m | | 10 | 13 | 16 | 20 | 25 | 31 | 37 | 45 | 54 | 65 | 77 | 90 | 105 | 122 | 141 | 162 | 185 | 209 | 237 | 266 | 298 | 332 | 368 | 408 | 449 |
Cash from operations, $m | | 170 | 346 | 586 | 897 | 1293 | 1789 | 2404 | 3158 | 4073 | 5174 | 6486 | 8038 | 9860 | 11983 | 14442 | 17271 | 20508 | 24190 | 28357 | 33051 | 38313 | 44187 | 50716 | 57946 | 65924 |
Maintenance CAPEX, $m | | -27 | -36 | -47 | -62 | -81 | -104 | -132 | -167 | -208 | -259 | -319 | -390 | -474 | -571 | -685 | -816 | -965 | -1137 | -1331 | -1550 | -1797 | -2073 | -2380 | -2722 | -3100 |
New CAPEX, $m | | -164 | -210 | -266 | -335 | -416 | -513 | -627 | -759 | -912 | -1088 | -1288 | -1514 | -1768 | -2052 | -2367 | -2714 | -3097 | -3514 | -3969 | -4462 | -4995 | -5568 | -6182 | -6839 | -7539 |
Total CAPEX, $m | | -191 | -246 | -314 | -397 | -497 | -617 | -759 | -926 | -1121 | -1347 | -1607 | -1904 | -2242 | -2623 | -3051 | -3530 | -4062 | -4651 | -5300 | -6012 | -6791 | -7640 | -8562 | -9561 | -10639 |
Free cash flow, $m | | -21 | 100 | 272 | 500 | 796 | 1172 | 1645 | 2232 | 2953 | 3827 | 4880 | 6134 | 7618 | 9360 | 11391 | 13741 | 16446 | 19539 | 23057 | 27039 | 31522 | 36547 | 42154 | 48386 | 55285 |
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m | | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Retained Cash Flow, $m | | -125 | -31 | -39 | -49 | -60 | -75 | -91 | -110 | -132 | -158 | -187 | -220 | -257 | -298 | -344 | -394 | -450 | -510 | -577 | -648 | -726 | -809 | -898 | -993 | -1095 |
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m | | 140 |
Cash available for distribution, $m | | 0 | 69 | 234 | 452 | 735 | 1098 | 1554 | 2122 | 2820 | 3669 | 4693 | 5915 | 7362 | 9062 | 11047 | 13347 | 15996 | 19028 | 22481 | 26391 | 30796 | 35738 | 41256 | 47393 | 54190 |
Discount rate, % | | 5.80 | 6.09 | 6.39 | 6.71 | 7.05 | 7.40 | 7.77 | 8.16 | 8.57 | 9.00 | 9.45 | 9.92 | 10.42 | 10.94 | 11.48 | 12.06 | 12.66 | 13.29 | 13.96 | 14.66 | 15.39 | 16.16 | 16.97 | 17.81 | 18.71 |
PV of cash for distribution, $m | | 0 | 61 | 194 | 348 | 523 | 715 | 920 | 1133 | 1346 | 1550 | 1738 | 1901 | 2030 | 2119 | 2163 | 2159 | 2108 | 2012 | 1878 | 1712 | 1524 | 1324 | 1122 | 927 | 745 |
Current shareholders' claim on cash, % | | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 |