investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic Value of Vera Bradley, Inc. (VRA)

Previous Close$2.16
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$2.16

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2025 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Vera Bradley, Inc. operates in the retail apparel and accessories sector, specializing in distinctive handbags, luggage, travel items, and fashion accessories. The company targets primarily female consumers through a blend of e-commerce, direct-to-consumer stores, and wholesale distribution. Vera Bradley differentiates itself with vibrant, patterned designs and a focus on functional yet stylish products. Despite competition from larger retailers and shifting consumer preferences, the brand maintains a niche following, leveraging its heritage and loyal customer base to sustain market relevance. The company’s revenue model relies on direct sales and wholesale partnerships, though it faces margin pressures from promotional strategies and inventory management challenges. In recent years, Vera Bradley has sought to modernize its digital presence and streamline operations to adapt to evolving retail dynamics.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

For FY 2025, Vera Bradley reported revenue of $372.0 million but recorded a net loss of $62.2 million, reflecting operational challenges and potential margin compression. Diluted EPS stood at -$2.15, underscoring profitability struggles. Operating cash flow was negative at $14.1 million, while capital expenditures totaled $10.4 million, indicating constrained liquidity and limited reinvestment capacity. These metrics suggest inefficiencies in cost management and revenue generation.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s negative earnings and operating cash flow highlight weakened earnings power, likely due to elevated operating expenses and competitive pressures. Capital efficiency appears strained, with minimal free cash flow generation after accounting for capital expenditures. The lack of profitability raises concerns about the sustainability of current operations without strategic adjustments or improved top-line performance.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Vera Bradley’s balance sheet shows $30.4 million in cash and equivalents against $89.6 million in total debt, signaling moderate liquidity but elevated leverage. The debt burden, coupled with negative earnings, may constrain financial flexibility. Shareholders’ equity is likely under pressure given the net loss, though the absence of dividends alleviates some cash outflow demands.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Recent performance reflects declining growth trends, with no dividend payments in FY 2025. The company’s focus appears to be on stabilizing operations rather than shareholder returns. Without clear revenue growth or margin expansion, near-term prospects remain uncertain. Strategic initiatives, such as digital transformation or product innovation, will be critical to reversing negative trends.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Market expectations for Vera Bradley are subdued, given its unprofitable status and challenging retail environment. The stock’s valuation likely reflects skepticism about a near-term turnaround. Investors may demand clearer signs of operational improvement or cost rationalization before assigning higher multiples to the business.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Vera Bradley’s brand recognition and loyal customer base provide a foundation for recovery, but execution risks persist. The outlook hinges on successful adaptation to e-commerce trends and cost control measures. Without meaningful progress, the company risks further erosion of its market position. Long-term viability will depend on balancing innovation with financial discipline.

Sources

Company filings (10-K), Bloomberg

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044204520462047204820492050

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %NaN
Revenue, $NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $mNaN
Operating income, $mNaN
EBITDA, $mNaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $mNaN
Tax expense, $mNaN
Net income, $mNaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $mNaN
Total assets, $mNaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $mNaN
Average production assets, $mNaN
Working capital, $mNaN
Total debt, $mNaN
Total liabilities, $mNaN
Total equity, $mNaN
Debt-to-equity ratioNaN
Adjusted equity ratioNaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $mNaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $mNaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $mNaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $mNaN
Free cash flow, $mNaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $mNaN
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
HomeMenuAccount