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Stock Analysis & ValuationThe Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (0L45.L)

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£63.79
Sector Valuation Confidence Level
Moderate
Valuation methodValue, £Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)41.60-35
Intrinsic value (DCF)29.36-54
Graham-Dodd Methodn/a
Graham Formulan/a

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (LSE: 0L45.L) is a leading manufacturer and marketer of lawn, garden care, and hydroponic gardening products, serving both residential and commercial markets in the U.S. and internationally. Founded in 1868 and headquartered in Marysville, Ohio, the company operates through three key segments: U.S. Consumer, Hawthorne (hydroponics), and Other. Scotts Miracle-Gro offers a diverse portfolio of trusted brands, including Scotts, Miracle-Gro, Ortho, and Roundup, catering to lawn maintenance, gardening, and indoor hydroponic cultivation. The company distributes its products through home centers, mass merchandisers, e-commerce platforms, and specialty retailers, positioning itself as a dominant player in the basic materials sector. With a strong focus on innovation and sustainability, Scotts Miracle-Gro continues to expand its market share in organic and hydroponic gardening, capitalizing on growing consumer interest in home gardening and controlled-environment agriculture.

Investment Summary

Scotts Miracle-Gro presents a mixed investment profile. The company benefits from strong brand recognition, a diversified product portfolio, and a growing hydroponics segment (Hawthorne), which aligns with increasing demand for indoor gardening solutions. However, investors should note the company's negative net income (-$34.9M) and high leverage (total debt of $2.52B), which could pose risks amid rising interest rates. The stock's high beta (1.954) suggests significant volatility, likely tied to cyclical demand for lawn and garden products. Positive operating cash flow ($667.5M) and a solid dividend yield (~3.5%) may appeal to income-focused investors, but the hydroponics segment faces regulatory uncertainties and competition. The stock could suit investors with a higher risk tolerance seeking exposure to the home improvement and cannabis-adjacent markets.

Competitive Analysis

Scotts Miracle-Gro holds a competitive advantage through its extensive brand portfolio and distribution network, which includes partnerships with major retailers like Home Depot and Lowe's. Its U.S. Consumer segment dominates the lawn and garden care market, with brands like Miracle-Gro and Ortho enjoying strong customer loyalty. The Hawthorne segment positions the company in the high-growth hydroponics market, though this space is fragmented and subject to regulatory risks. Competitors challenge Scotts in specific niches: Spectrum Brands in pest control, Central Garden & Pet in value-tier lawn products, and Hydrofarm in hydroponics. Scotts' scale allows for robust R&D and marketing spend, but its reliance on seasonal demand and exposure to input cost inflation (e.g., fertilizers) are vulnerabilities. The company's shift toward organic and sustainable products (e.g., Miracle-Gro Performance Organics) helps differentiate it from low-cost competitors. However, its debt load could limit agility in responding to market shifts compared to leaner rivals.

Major Competitors

  • Central Garden & Pet Company (CENTA): Central Garden & Pet competes with Scotts in lawn/garden and pet care, offering lower-priced alternatives under brands like Pennington and AMDRO. Its strength lies in a balanced portfolio (pet products provide stability), but it lacks Scotts' brand dominance in premium lawn care. Central's smaller scale limits its R&D and marketing reach compared to Scotts.
  • Spectrum Brands Holdings (SPB): Spectrum Brands competes in pest control (Hot Shot, Black Flag) and gardening (Spectracide) but has shifted focus toward home appliances and pet care. Its weaker presence in core lawn/garden categories makes it a secondary competitor to Scotts, though its diversified business reduces seasonal volatility.
  • Hydrofarm Holdings Group (HYFM): Hydrofarm is a pure-play hydroponics competitor to Scotts' Hawthorne segment, specializing in lighting and cultivation systems. It struggles with profitability and scale versus Scotts but benefits from deeper expertise in commercial hydroponics. Its reliance on the cannabis industry exposes it to regulatory risks.
  • The Mosaic Company (MOS): Mosaic competes indirectly as a fertilizer producer, supplying raw materials to Scotts. Its advantage lies in upstream cost control, but it lacks downstream brand presence. Commodity price volatility affects Mosaic more than Scotts, which can pass costs to consumers via branded products.
  • The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (US Listing) (SMG): Scotts' primary listing (SMG) represents the same entity as 0L45.L but trades with higher liquidity on the NYSE. Investors may prefer SMG for tighter spreads and greater analyst coverage, though both tickers reflect identical fundamentals.
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