Stock Analysis & Valuation GeoPark Limited (0MDP.L)

• Previous Close: £8.46
• Sector Valuation Confidence Level: Low

Valuation method	Value, £	Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)	27.30	223
Intrinsic value (DCF)	6.00	-29
Graham-Dodd Method	3.40	-60
Graham Formula		n/a

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

GeoPark Limited (LSE: 0MDP.L) is a leading independent oil and gas exploration and production company focused on Latin America, with operations in Colombia, Chile, Brazil, Argentina, and Ecuador. Founded in 2002 and headquartered in Bogotá, Colombia, GeoPark holds interests in 42 hydrocarbon blocks, boasting net proved reserves of 87.8 million barrels of oil equivalent. The company’s vertically integrated business model spans exploration, development, and production, supported by strategic partnerships such as its collaboration with ONGC Videsh to enhance upstream investments across the region. GeoPark’s diversified asset base and operational efficiency position it as a key player in Latin America’s energy sector, capitalizing on regional demand and resource potential. With a strong balance sheet and a track record of generating robust operating cash flows, GeoPark is well-positioned to navigate volatile commodity markets while pursuing growth opportunities.

Investment Summary

GeoPark presents an attractive investment opportunity due to its strong operational footprint in Latin America, diversified asset base, and disciplined capital allocation. The company’s low-cost production, strategic partnerships, and proven reserves provide resilience against oil price volatility. However, risks include geopolitical instability in operating regions, regulatory changes, and exposure to fluctuating commodity prices. With a market cap of $346 million, a beta of 0.747 (indicating lower volatility than the broader market), and a solid dividend yield, GeoPark appeals to investors seeking exposure to high-growth emerging markets in the energy sector. The company’s ability to generate strong operating cash flow ($471M in the latest period) and maintain a healthy liquidity position ($276.75M in cash) supports further growth and shareholder returns.

Competitive Analysis

GeoPark’s competitive advantage lies in its regional expertise, low-cost operations, and strategic partnerships in Latin America. The company’s diversified portfolio mitigates country-specific risks while allowing it to capitalize on high-potential basins. Its partnership with ONGC Videsh enhances financial and technical capabilities for upstream projects. Compared to larger global peers, GeoPark’s nimble structure enables faster decision-making and cost efficiency, though it lacks the scale and diversification of multinationals. The company’s focus on proven reserves and operational efficiency (evidenced by strong operating cash flows) positions it well against regional competitors. However, reliance on a few key assets and exposure to Latin American regulatory environments remain challenges. GeoPark’s ability to sustain production growth while maintaining cost discipline will be critical in competing against both regional players and global energy firms expanding in Latin America.

Major Competitors

• Ecopetrol S.A. (EC): Ecopetrol is Colombia’s largest integrated oil company, with significant refining and midstream operations alongside exploration and production. Its scale and government backing provide stability, but bureaucratic inefficiencies and higher costs compared to independents like GeoPark can limit agility. Ecopetrol’s broader asset base offers diversification but may lack the focused growth potential of GeoPark’s targeted exploration strategy.
• Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras) (PBR): Petrobras dominates Brazil’s deepwater oil production, with vast reserves and technological expertise. However, its heavy debt load and political interference pose risks. GeoPark’s smaller scale allows for more flexibility in regional onshore projects where Petrobras may not compete directly.
• YPF S.A. (YPF): YPF is Argentina’s leading energy company, with integrated operations. While it has substantial reserves, macroeconomic instability in Argentina and government influence create volatility. GeoPark’s multi-country presence provides a hedge compared to YPF’s concentrated exposure.
• FTAI Energy Ltd. (FTAI): FTAI Energy focuses on infrastructure and midstream assets rather than direct E&P. Its U.S.-centric model contrasts with GeoPark’s Latin American upstream focus, though both target high-margin energy opportunities. FTAI’s asset-light approach differs from GeoPark’s ownership of reserves.