Stock Analysis & Valuation ID Logistics Group S.A. (0QAG.L)

• Previous Close: £415.00
• Sector Valuation Confidence Level: Moderate

Valuation method	Value, £	Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)	253.00	-39
Intrinsic value (DCF)	1556.75	275
Graham-Dodd Method	46.70	-89
Graham Formula	194.30	-53

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

ID Logistics Group SA (LSE: 0QAG.L) is a leading global provider of contract logistics services, specializing in warehousing, transport optimization, and supply chain solutions. Headquartered in Orgon, France, the company operates approximately 350 sites across 17 countries, serving high-growth sectors such as FMCG, e-commerce, high-tech, cosmetics, fashion, and retail. ID Logistics offers a comprehensive suite of services, including stock management, order preparation, co-packing, and automated unit picking, along with e-commerce fulfillment and turnkey project delivery. With a strong presence in Europe, Asia, and Latin America, the company leverages its international footprint to provide scalable, technology-driven logistics solutions. As e-commerce and omnichannel retail continue to expand, ID Logistics is well-positioned to capitalize on increasing demand for efficient, flexible supply chain management. The company’s focus on innovation and customer-centric solutions makes it a key player in the competitive logistics industry.

Investment Summary

ID Logistics presents a compelling investment case due to its diversified geographic footprint, strong revenue growth (€3.27B in FY 2024), and exposure to high-growth sectors like e-commerce. The company’s low beta (0.74) suggests relative stability compared to broader market volatility. However, investors should note its high leverage (total debt of €1.45B vs. cash reserves of €314M) and thin net margins (€52.8M net income, 1.6% margin), which could pressure profitability in a rising interest rate environment. The lack of dividends may deter income-focused investors, but its robust operating cash flow (€452M) supports reinvestment in automation and expansion. The stock could appeal to growth-oriented investors betting on global supply chain modernization.

Competitive Analysis

ID Logistics competes in the fragmented contract logistics market, differentiating itself through technology integration, international scalability, and sector-specific expertise. Its competitive advantage lies in its ability to offer end-to-end solutions, from warehousing to last-mile delivery, particularly for e-commerce and retail clients. The company’s presence in emerging markets (e.g., Brazil, Indonesia) provides growth avenues, though it faces stiff competition from larger players with deeper pockets. Its asset-light model allows flexibility but may limit control over transport costs. While ID Logistics has a strong European base, it lacks the scale of global giants like DHL or Kuehne + Nagel. However, its focus on high-value sectors (cosmetics, high-tech) helps maintain pricing power. The company’s investments in automation and AI-driven logistics could further enhance efficiency, but execution risks remain in integrating acquisitions and managing debt.

Major Competitors

• Deutsche Post DHL Group (DHL.DE): DHL dominates global logistics with unmatched scale and air freight capabilities. Its integrated divisions (Express, Supply Chain) give it an edge in cross-border e-commerce, but its size can lead to inefficiencies in customized solutions. Compared to ID Logistics, DHL has stronger brand recognition but lower agility in niche markets.
• Kuehne + Nagel International AG (KNIN.SW): Kuehne + Nagel excels in sea freight and pharmaceutical logistics, with higher margins than ID Logistics. Its global network is superior, but it lacks ID Logistics’ focus on retail and e-commerce fulfillment. KN’s larger scale provides cost advantages but may limit flexibility for mid-sized clients.
• DSV Panalpina A/S (DSV.CO): DSV rivals ID Logistics in contract logistics but with greater M&A-driven growth. Its stronger balance sheet allows aggressive expansion, though integration risks persist. DSV’s broader freight forwarding services compete indirectly, but ID Logistics’ specialized e-commerce solutions retain differentiation.
• XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO): XPO is a key competitor in tech-driven logistics, particularly in North America. Its advanced automation parallels ID Logistics’ initiatives, but XPO’s post-spinoff focus on LTL freight reduces direct overlap. ID Logistics’ European and emerging market presence offers geographic diversification XPO lacks.
• GXO Logistics, Inc. (GXO): GXO, spun off from XPO, is a pure-play contract logistics rival with a heavy e-commerce focus. Its larger scale in automated warehouses pressures ID Logistics, but GXO’s limited presence in ID’s core European markets mitigates direct competition. Both vie for retail and tech clients.