Stock Analysis & Valuation Cybergun S.A. (ALCYB.PA)

• Previous Close: €0.00
• Sector Valuation Confidence Level: Moderate

Valuation method	Value, €	Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)	24.24	6059900
Intrinsic value (DCF)	0.00	-100
Graham-Dodd Method		n/a
Graham Formula		n/a

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

Cybergun S.A. is a leading French manufacturer and distributor of replica weapons, air guns, and tactical accessories, catering to the leisure and consumer cyclical sector. Headquartered in Suresnes, France, the company operates under globally recognized brands such as CANiK, COLT, DESERT EAGLE, FN HERSTAL, GLOCK, KALASHNIKOV, MAUSER, SCHMEISSER, SWISS ARMS, and THOMPSON. Cybergun specializes in high-quality airsoft and shooting sports equipment, including soft air guns, BBs, tactical gear, and firearm accessories. The company serves a niche but growing market of recreational shooters, collectors, and tactical enthusiasts. Despite challenges in profitability, Cybergun maintains a strong brand portfolio and distribution network, positioning itself as a key player in the European airsoft and replica firearms industry. With a market capitalization of approximately €1.44 million, Cybergun continues to innovate in a competitive landscape dominated by both specialized and diversified leisure product manufacturers.

Investment Summary

Cybergun S.A. presents a high-risk investment opportunity due to its negative net income (-€14.61 million in FY 2023) and weak operating cash flow (-€1.11 million). The company's low beta (0.038) suggests minimal correlation with broader market movements, which may appeal to niche investors. However, its financial instability, evidenced by declining revenue (€43.6 million in FY 2023) and lack of dividends, raises concerns. The company's competitive advantage lies in its strong brand licensing agreements (e.g., GLOCK, COLT) and specialized product range, but operational inefficiencies and debt (€10.89 million) pose significant risks. Investors should weigh Cybergun's market positioning against its financial health before considering exposure.

Competitive Analysis

Cybergun S.A. competes in the highly specialized airsoft and replica firearms market, where brand licensing and product authenticity are critical. The company's primary competitive advantage stems from its partnerships with iconic firearm brands (e.g., GLOCK, COLT), allowing it to offer officially licensed replicas—a key differentiator in a market where authenticity drives consumer preference. However, Cybergun faces intense competition from both niche airsoft manufacturers and larger leisure conglomerates. Its financial struggles (negative EPS of -€0.18 in FY 2023) limit R&D and marketing investments, hindering its ability to innovate or expand geographically. Competitors with stronger balance sheets can outspend Cybergun in product development and distribution. Additionally, regulatory risks in Europe regarding replica firearms could further constrain growth. Cybergun's niche focus provides some insulation from broader leisure sector downturns, but its inability to achieve profitability remains a critical weakness compared to rivals with diversified portfolios.

Major Competitors

• Umarex GmbH & Co. KG (UMAR.F): Umarex, a subsidiary of PW Group, is a dominant player in the airgun and airsoft market, known for brands like Walther and Smith & Wesson licensed replicas. Unlike Cybergun, Umarex benefits from vertical integration, manufacturing its products in-house, which improves margins. However, its lack of public financial disclosure makes direct comparison difficult. Umarex's broader product range, including pellet guns and paintball markers, gives it a competitive edge over Cybergun's narrower focus.
• SPDR S&P Kensho Final Frontiers ETF (GUNR): While not a direct competitor, this ETF includes defense and firearms companies, reflecting broader market trends affecting Cybergun's sector. Its inclusion highlights investor interest in firearms-adjacent markets, though Cybergun's replica focus differentiates it from live-ammunition manufacturers in the ETF.
• Vista Outdoor Inc. (VSTO): Vista Outdoor owns brands like Savage Arms and Federal Premium Ammunition, competing indirectly with Cybergun through its shooting sports segment. Vista's scale and diversification across outdoor recreation provide stability Cybergun lacks. However, Cybergun's European market presence and replica specialization offer some regional insulation.
• Sturm, Ruger & Co. Inc. (RGR): Ruger focuses on real firearms, not replicas, but competes for discretionary spending in the shooting sports market. Its strong U.S. distribution and profitability (net income of $48.1 million in 2023) contrast sharply with Cybergun's struggles. Ruger's live-fire products face stricter regulations, giving Cybergun an advantage in markets with restrictive firearm laws.