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Stock Analysis & ValuationAltynGold plc (ALTN.L)

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£1,530.00
Sector Valuation Confidence Level
Moderate
Valuation methodValue, £Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)112.50-93
Intrinsic value (DCF)139.56-91
Graham-Dodd Method6.00-100
Graham Formula41.10-97

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

AltynGold plc (LSE: ALTN) is a London-based gold mining company focused on the exploration and development of gold doré properties in Kazakhstan. Its flagship asset, the Sekisovskoye gold mine, is a key producer in North East Kazakhstan, contributing to the company's revenue through gold and silver extraction. Operating in the Basic Materials sector, AltynGold leverages Kazakhstan's rich mineral resources to maintain a steady production pipeline. The company, formerly known as Altyn Plc, rebranded in 2020 and is a subsidiary of African Resources Limited. With a market capitalization of approximately £109 million, AltynGold remains a niche player in the gold mining industry, balancing operational efficiency with growth potential in Central Asia. Investors eyeing exposure to emerging-market gold production may find AltynGold an intriguing option, given its established mining operations and regional expertise.

Investment Summary

AltynGold presents a mixed investment profile. On the positive side, the company operates in a stable gold-producing region (Kazakhstan) with a flagship mine generating consistent revenue (£96.5M in FY 2023) and net income (£26.4M). Its beta of 1.043 suggests moderate correlation with broader market movements, typical for gold equities. However, risks include high total debt (£60.1M) relative to cash reserves (£10.4M), zero dividend payouts, and reliance on a single primary asset (Sekisovskoye). The lack of diversification and exposure to geopolitical risks in Kazakhstan may deter conservative investors. That said, if gold prices remain strong, AltynGold’s operational cash flow (£29.4M) could support further capital expenditures or debt reduction.

Competitive Analysis

AltynGold’s competitive positioning hinges on its regional focus and cost-efficient operations in Kazakhstan. The Sekisovskoye mine benefits from established infrastructure and local expertise, allowing the company to maintain lower operational costs compared to global peers. However, its single-asset concentration limits scalability and exposes it to mine-specific risks. Unlike diversified gold majors, AltynGold cannot offset underperformance in one region with production elsewhere. Its small market cap also restricts access to capital for large-scale expansions. On the upside, Kazakhstan’s mining-friendly policies and untapped mineral potential provide growth opportunities. The company’s competitive advantage lies in its deep regional knowledge and ability to operate profitably in a mid-tier gold price environment. Yet, it lacks the economies of scale enjoyed by larger competitors, making it more vulnerable to cost inflation and commodity price swings. Strategic partnerships or additional acquisitions could enhance its competitive edge.

Major Competitors

  • Polymetal International plc (POLY.L): Polymetal is a larger gold and silver producer with assets across Russia and Kazakhstan, offering geographic diversification that AltynGold lacks. Its scale allows for better cost absorption, but recent geopolitical tensions have impacted its valuation. Polymetal’s multi-asset portfolio provides stability compared to AltynGold’s single-mine focus.
  • Kazakhstan Kagazy plc (KAZ.L): Primarily a packaging and recycling firm, Kazakhstan Kagazy operates in the same region but in a different sector. Its local market expertise and infrastructure connections could pose indirect competition for resources or labor. However, it does not directly compete in gold mining.
  • Centamin plc (CEY.L): Centamin’s Sukari mine in Egypt is a high-grade, low-cost asset, similar to Sekisovskoye in profitability. Centamin’s larger production scale and stronger balance sheet give it an edge, though AltynGold’s Kazakhstan focus may appeal to investors seeking Central Asian exposure.
  • Fresnillo plc (FRES.L): As the world’s largest primary silver producer, Fresnillo’s diversified precious metals portfolio and operational scale dwarf AltynGold’s output. However, Fresnillo’s higher cost structure and exposure to Mexican regulatory risks balance its advantages.
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