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Stock Analysis & ValuationAmentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM)

Previous Close
$35.78
Sector Valuation Confidence Level
Moderate
Valuation methodValue, $Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)28.65-20
Intrinsic value (DCF)711.061887
Graham-Dodd Methodn/a
Graham Formulan/a

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

Amentum Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: AMTM) is a leading provider of mission-critical, technology-driven services catering to government and commercial markets. Headquartered in Chantilly, VA, the company operates through two key segments: Critical Mission Solutions and Cyber & Intelligence. The Critical Mission Solutions segment delivers specialized services such as missile defense testing, IT and engineering solutions for defense and space sectors, and environmental remediation for energy clients. The Cyber & Intelligence segment focuses on advanced cyber training, data analytics, and communication systems for national security and defense agencies. Founded in 2019, Amentum has quickly established itself as a trusted partner for high-stakes government contracts, leveraging cutting-edge technology to address complex challenges in defense, intelligence, and infrastructure. With a market cap of nearly $5 billion, Amentum plays a pivotal role in the technology-driven services sector, particularly in government contracting, where its expertise in cybersecurity and critical infrastructure sets it apart.

Investment Summary

Amentum presents a mixed investment profile. On the positive side, the company operates in a high-barrier, government-contracting niche with stable demand driven by national security priorities. Its diversified service offerings across defense, space, and cyber sectors provide revenue resilience. However, investors should note the company's negative net income (-$82M) and diluted EPS (-$0.34) in the latest reporting period, alongside significant debt ($4.94B). The low beta (-0.50) suggests low correlation with broader markets, which could appeal to defensive investors, but the lack of dividends and current unprofitability may deter income-focused shareholders. Growth potential lies in expanding government cybersecurity budgets and infrastructure modernization programs, but execution risks and contract concentration remain key concerns.

Competitive Analysis

Amentum competes in the highly specialized government technology services sector, where its competitive advantage stems from three key factors: (1) deep domain expertise in mission-critical areas like missile defense testing and cyber intelligence, (2) established relationships with defense and intelligence agencies, and (3) technical capabilities in emerging areas like aerial mapping and environmental remediation. The company's positioning as a mid-tier government contractor allows it to pursue larger contracts than small specialists while remaining more agile than defense giants. However, Amentum faces intense competition from both large defense primes (who can bundle services) and niche cyber firms (with deeper technical specialization). Its $8.4B revenue scale provides some bidding advantage for major contracts, but the negative margins suggest pricing pressure in the current competitive environment. The company's growth potential likely hinges on winning more high-margin cyber and space-related work while improving operational efficiency in its traditional services. Compared to pure-play IT services firms, Amentum benefits from its physical infrastructure capabilities, but this also exposes it to higher operational complexity and costs.

Major Competitors

  • Leidos Holdings, Inc. (LDOS): Leidos is a larger competitor ($15B market cap) with broader IT and defense solutions. It outperforms Amentum in profitability but may lack focus in some of Amentum's niche areas like environmental remediation. Leidos' stronger balance sheet gives it an advantage in pursuing large, multi-year contracts.
  • Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC): SAIC operates in similar government IT and technical service markets but with greater emphasis on enterprise IT solutions. It's more profitable than Amentum currently but doesn't have the same depth in operational support services for critical missions.
  • Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation (BAH): Booz Allen dominates in management consulting and cyber solutions for government, with particular strength in intelligence community work. It's more focused on high-end advisory services compared to Amentum's operational support orientation, commanding higher margins as a result.
  • CACI International Inc (CACI): CACI competes directly in national security technology solutions with similar capabilities in cyber and intelligence. It has shown more consistent profitability than Amentum but lacks Amentum's energy sector and environmental service offerings.
  • Parsons Corporation (PSN): Parsons overlaps with Amentum in critical infrastructure and cyber solutions but with stronger positioning in transportation and urban security markets. It's smaller than Amentum but has demonstrated better recent margin performance.
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