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Stock Analysis & ValuationCTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO)

Previous Close
$16.53
Sector Valuation Confidence Level
Low
Valuation methodValue, $Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)28.7974
Intrinsic value (DCF)0.00-100
Graham-Dodd Methodn/a
Graham Formulan/a
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Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (NYSE: CTO) is a diversified real estate investment trust (REIT) headquartered in Florida, specializing in income-generating properties across key U.S. markets. With a portfolio spanning approximately 2.4 million square feet, CTO focuses on high-quality retail, office, and mixed-use assets, offering investors exposure to stable cash flows from long-term leases. The company also holds a 23.5% stake in Alpine Income Property Trust (NYSE: PINE), a net lease REIT, enhancing its strategic diversification. Operating in the competitive REIT - Diversified sector, CTO emphasizes value creation through asset management, selective acquisitions, and disciplined capital allocation. Its geographically diversified footprint mitigates regional economic risks while capitalizing on growth opportunities in secondary and tertiary markets. CTO’s commitment to shareholder returns is reflected in its consistent dividend payouts, making it an attractive option for income-focused investors in the real estate sector.

Investment Summary

CTO Realty Growth presents a mixed investment profile. On the positive side, the company offers a diversified portfolio with stable income streams and a notable dividend yield (currently $1.52 per share). Its low beta (0.569) suggests lower volatility relative to the broader market, appealing to risk-averse investors. However, recent financials reveal challenges, including negative net income (-$1.97M) and diluted EPS (-$0.35), likely due to rising interest expenses or property-level underperformance. The REIT’s leverage (total debt of $534.4M against a market cap of ~$587.6M) warrants caution, especially in a higher-rate environment. While operating cash flow ($69.4M) remains healthy, investors should monitor occupancy trends, lease renewals, and Alpine Income Property Trust’s performance for sustained growth.

Competitive Analysis

CTO Realty Growth operates in the highly competitive REIT - Diversified sector, where scale, asset quality, and access to capital are critical. Its competitive advantage lies in its strategic focus on secondary markets, which often offer higher yields and lower acquisition costs compared to primary markets dominated by larger peers. The company’s stake in Alpine Income Property Trust provides additional diversification into net lease assets, a segment known for stable tenant covenants (e.g., national retailers). However, CTO’s smaller size (~$587.6M market cap) limits its ability to compete with giants like Realty Income (NYSE: O) or W.P. Carey (NYSE: WPC) in terms of economies of scale and financing flexibility. Its portfolio’s mixed-use nature (retail/office) also exposes it to sector-specific risks, such as retail tenant bankruptcies or office demand fluctuations. To differentiate itself, CTO emphasizes hands-on asset management and local market expertise, but its success hinges on maintaining high occupancy rates and navigating interest rate headwinds effectively.

Major Competitors

  • Realty Income Corporation (O): Realty Income (NYSE: O) is a net lease REIT giant with a market cap exceeding $40B, far surpassing CTO’s scale. Its ‘Monthly Dividend Company’ model and investment-grade balance sheet provide lower-cost capital and unparalleled stability. However, its focus on primary markets may limit yield opportunities compared to CTO’s secondary-market strategy.
  • W.P. Carey Inc. (WPC): W.P. Carey (NYSE: WPC) is a diversified net lease REIT with a global portfolio and ~$14B market cap. Its international exposure and triple-net leases offer robust cash flows, but recent spin-offs of office assets signal strategic shifts. CTO’s smaller, U.S.-centric portfolio may appeal to investors seeking domestic focus.
  • Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc. (PINE): Alpine Income Property Trust (NYSE: PINE), in which CTO holds a 23.5% stake, is a pure-play net lease REIT. While PINE benefits from single-tenant retail leases, its smaller size (~$300M market cap) and limited diversification compared to CTO’s mixed portfolio may increase volatility.
  • National Retail Properties, Inc. (NNN): National Retail Properties (NYSE: NNN) specializes in convenience-store and service-retail net leases, offering predictable income. Its ~$7B market cap and high occupancy rates (98%+) outshine CTO’s diversified approach, but CTO’s mixed-use assets provide broader economic resilience.
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