Stock Analysis & Valuation Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HAR.DE)

• Previous Close: €24.67
• Sector Valuation Confidence Level: Moderate

Valuation method	Value, €	Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)	28.60	16
Intrinsic value (DCF)	15.32	-38
Graham-Dodd Method	26.70	8
Graham Formula		n/a

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HAR.DE) is an iconic American motorcycle manufacturer renowned for its heavyweight cruiser, touring, and custom motorcycles. Founded in 1903 and headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Harley-Davidson operates through two key segments: Motorcycles & Related Products and Financial Services. The company designs, manufactures, and sells motorcycles, parts, accessories, and branded apparel through a global network of independent dealers and e-commerce channels. Its Financial Services segment provides wholesale and retail financing, including motorcycle loans and insurance products. Harley-Davidson holds a strong brand legacy, particularly in the U.S., but also serves markets in Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America. As a leader in the recreational vehicle industry, Harley-Davidson faces challenges from shifting consumer preferences toward electric vehicles and competition from global motorcycle brands. The company’s strategic focus includes expanding its electric motorcycle lineup (LiveWire) and enhancing direct-to-consumer sales.

Investment Summary

Harley-Davidson remains a dominant player in the heavyweight motorcycle segment, supported by strong brand loyalty and a dedicated customer base. However, the company faces headwinds from declining U.S. motorcycle demand, high debt levels (€7.03B), and increasing competition in electric motorcycles. Its financial performance shows resilience, with FY revenue at €5.19B and net income of €455M, but diluted EPS of €3.44 reflects margin pressures. The dividend yield (~2.6%) provides income appeal, but investors should monitor Harley’s ability to attract younger riders and expand internationally. The stock’s beta of 1.31 indicates higher volatility relative to the market, making it suitable for risk-tolerant investors betting on a brand turnaround.

Competitive Analysis

Harley-Davidson’s competitive advantage lies in its strong brand heritage, loyal customer community (H.O.G. – Harley Owners Group), and premium pricing power. However, its reliance on traditional gasoline-powered cruisers limits growth in markets shifting toward electric and adventure bikes. Competitors like Honda and Yamaha offer broader product ranges at lower price points, while electric-focused brands like Zero Motorcycles challenge Harley’s LiveWire. Harley’s direct-to-consumer strategy and financing arm provide differentiation, but high debt and reliance on North America (nearly 60% of sales) expose it to regional economic downturns. The company’s LiveWire spin-off aims to capture EV demand, but scaling remains uncertain. Harley’s competitive positioning is strongest among older, affluent riders, but it struggles with younger demographics and international expansion, where rivals like Triumph and Ducati have stronger footholds.

Major Competitors

• Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC): Honda dominates global motorcycle sales with a diverse lineup, including affordable commuter bikes and high-performance models. Its scale, R&D capabilities, and strong presence in Asia give it an edge over Harley in volume-driven markets. However, Honda lacks Harley’s brand cult following in the cruiser segment.
• Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd. (YAMHF): Yamaha competes with Harley in cruisers (e.g., Star Motorcycles) and outperforms in sport and off-road bikes. Its innovation in electric and hybrid motorcycles poses a long-term threat. Yamaha’s broader product portfolio and stronger Asian distribution are advantages, but it lacks Harley’s premium brand cachet in the U.S.
• Triumph Motorcycles Ltd. (TRI): Triumph is a key rival in the premium cruiser and classic motorcycle segments, with a strong European following. Its modern classics (e.g., Bonneville) appeal to younger riders, but it lacks Harley’s financing ecosystem and U.S. dealer network. Triumph’s smaller scale limits its global reach compared to Harley.
• Ducati Motor Holding S.p.A. (DUCMF): Ducati, owned by Volkswagen, excels in high-performance sport bikes and premium branding. Its focus on racing heritage and design innovation attracts enthusiasts, but its niche positioning and higher price points limit mass-market appeal compared to Harley’s broader cruiser lineup.
• Zero Motorcycles (ZERO): A pure-play electric motorcycle maker, Zero competes with Harley’s LiveWire. Its lightweight, high-performance EVs appeal to urban riders, but it lacks Harley’s brand recognition and dealer network. Zero’s tech-focused approach contrasts with Harley’s traditional cruiser dominance.