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Stock Analysis & Valuationlastminute.com N.V. (LMN.SW)

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CHF14.25
Sector Valuation Confidence Level
Moderate
Valuation methodValue, CHFUpside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)352.502374
Intrinsic value (DCF)5.68-60
Graham-Dodd Methodn/a
Graham Formula9.80-31

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

lastminute.com N.V. (LMN.SW) is a leading European online travel agency (OTA) specializing in last-minute travel deals, hotel bookings, flights, vacation packages, and car rentals. Headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, and listed on the Swiss Exchange (SIX), the company operates under well-known brands such as lastminute.com, weg.de, Jetcost, and Rumbo, serving customers in over 40 countries and 17 languages. Its business model spans multiple segments, including OTA, meta-search, and media advertising, allowing it to monetize both direct bookings and referral traffic. The company’s strong digital presence, multi-brand strategy, and focus on discounted travel options position it as a key player in the competitive European travel market. With a market cap of CHF 163 million, lastminute.com N.V. caters to price-sensitive travelers while leveraging partnerships with airlines, hotels, and third-party providers to drive revenue growth.

Investment Summary

lastminute.com N.V. presents a high-risk, high-reward investment opportunity due to its exposure to the volatile travel industry (beta of 1.717). While the company reported CHF 313.7 million in revenue and CHF 15.7 million in net income for the latest fiscal period, its reliance on discretionary consumer spending makes it susceptible to economic downturns. Positive aspects include strong operating cash flow (CHF 24.4 million) and a modest dividend yield (CHF 0.5728 per share). However, its small market cap and competition from larger OTAs like Booking Holdings and Expedia pose challenges. Investors should weigh its niche last-minute travel focus against macroeconomic risks and sector competition.

Competitive Analysis

lastminute.com N.V. competes in the crowded online travel agency (OTA) space, differentiating itself through a multi-brand strategy and a focus on discounted, last-minute bookings. Its competitive advantage lies in localized branding (e.g., weg.de for Germany, Rumbo for Spain) and meta-search capabilities via Jetcost and Hotelscan, which drive traffic to partner sites. However, the company faces intense competition from global giants like Booking.com and Expedia, which benefit from superior scale, brand recognition, and technology investments. While lastminute.com’s asset-light model allows for flexibility, its smaller size limits bargaining power with suppliers. The company’s profitability (CHF 15.7 million net income) suggests efficient operations, but its growth potential is constrained by the dominance of larger players and the rise of direct booking platforms from airlines and hotels. Its ability to sustain margins in a price-sensitive market will depend on continued innovation in digital marketing and customer retention strategies.

Major Competitors

  • Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG): Booking Holdings, the parent company of Booking.com, Priceline, and Kayak, dominates the global OTA market with superior scale and technology. Its vast inventory and strong brand recognition overshadow lastminute.com’s regional focus. However, Booking’s reliance on the European market (a key region for lastminute.com) creates direct competition. Weaknesses include regulatory scrutiny over commission fees and dependence on third-party suppliers.
  • Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE): Expedia operates brands like Expedia.com, Vrbo, and Hotels.com, competing directly with lastminute.com in package deals and hotel bookings. Its global reach and loyalty programs (Expedia Rewards) give it an edge, but lastminute.com’s last-minute discount focus appeals to a niche audience. Expedia’s higher operating costs and recent restructuring efforts pose challenges.
  • TUI AG (TUI1.DE): TUI is a vertically integrated travel giant offering packaged tours, flights, and hotels, competing with lastminute.com in Europe. Its owned resorts and airlines provide cost advantages, but its asset-heavy model increases financial risk. lastminute.com’s agility in digital bookings contrasts with TUI’s reliance on physical travel agencies.
  • Tripadvisor Inc. (TRIP): Tripadvisor’s meta-search platform competes with lastminute.com’s Jetcost and Hotelscan. While Tripadvisor has stronger user-generated content (reviews), it struggles with monetization. lastminute.com’s dual OTA and meta-search model offers more diversified revenue streams.
  • eDreams Odigeo SA (EDR.L): eDreams Odigeo, like lastminute.com, focuses on European travelers with brands like eDreams and Opodo. Its subscription-based Prime program differentiates it, but lastminute.com’s broader brand portfolio provides wider reach. Both face similar challenges in competing against global OTAs.
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